The Big East conference season officially tips off for one big-name program, while two other potential contenders square off in a matchup that will likely have seeding ramifications come March. Coincidentally, the theme of today's pick is offense. Here are my predictions for three select games on Tuesday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Tuesday
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Louisville 
at Tennessee 
This pick is all about Louisville's offensive attack, which boasts the second-highest adjusted efficiency rating in the nation. Most college hoops fans have come to expect Tennessee to have elite defense, and while this year's team is again excellent in efficiency, ranking 13th, it's weaker in many significant areas. For example, the Volunteers rank outside the top 140 teams in defensive turnover percentage, rebounding percentage, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. At the same time, the Cardinals are strong offensively across all the same categories, ranking in the top 75 in each.
Louisville isn't quite as elite at the other end of the court, where it ranks 35th in adjusted defensive efficiency, but it does many things well that should help it earn a hard-fought road win on Tuesday. The Cardinals are holding opponents to the 11th-lowest effective field goal percentage nationally, and they also rank 106th in defensive turnover percentage and 68th in defensive rebounding. The latter two areas will come into play on Tuesday, as Tennessee is somewhat sloppy with the ball, ranking 267th in offensive turnover percentage, and it leads the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. This is a powerful trait, so Louisville's usual activity on the glass is critical.
I'm not one to kick a team when it's down, as Tennessee is riding a three-game losing streak, but this matchup is no joke. According to KenPom, this is the Volunteers' most challenging home game remaining on their entire schedule.
Given Louisville's explosive offense and hyperactive defense, I gotta go with the Cardinals in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Louisville +1.5
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Butler 
at Connecticut
The Bulldogs' offense is deceptively potent. They rank 39th in adjusted efficiency, which is decent, but the real key is that they are particularly skilled across multiple areas.
First, Butler is among the best at collecting offensive boards. The Bulldogs boast the 10th-highest offensive rebounding percentage among all D-1 teams, significantly better than the Huskies, who rank 100th in defensive rebounding.
Second, Butler often drives aggressively to the basket and creates contact, ranking 31st in free-throw attempt rate. This is significant because UConn's defense has been elite, but it has one critical weakness: fouling. The Huskies rank 290th in free-throw attempt rate allowed, so Butler should make frequent trips to the charity stripe on Tuesday.
Third, Butler is among the best shooting teams in the nation. The Bulldogs have knocked down 55 percent of two-point attempts (97th) and 39 percent of three-point attempts (25th), yielding an effective field goal percentage that ranks 44th.
It's tough to fade one of the best programs in the country when it's playing at home, but the spread is massive, and Butler appears to have the firepower to at least keep the score around 10, if not tighter. According to Action Network, the Huskies are 3-7 against the spread this season, while Butler is 7-2 against the spread. Based on how the Bulldogs are playing, I'm betting they'll continue exceeding market expectations. I'm taking the points with the dogs.
College Basketball Best Bet: Butler +14.5
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UC San Diego 
at Loyola Marymount 
The weak link in this matchup is LMU's offense. The Lions have an abysmal adjusted efficiency rating, ranking 219th, and their accompanying stats don't look much better. LMU ranks outside the top 200 teams in offensive turnover percentage, offensive rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate. It has also made just 64 percent of foul shots, one of the worst marks in the nation (345th). To be fair, the Lions are proving to be effective from the perimeter, knocking down almost 36 percent of three-point attempts, but it's hard to beat a decent team when your best option for scoring is a long-range jump shot.
The other problem for LMU's offense on Tuesday is the fact that UCSD isn't terrible defensively, ranking above the D-1 average in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed.
The Tritons, meanwhile, are a much safer bet to score points in any given game. They have the best adjusted offensive efficiency rating (71st) in the Big West Conference and are among the best shooting teams in the nation. UCSD has made over 58 percent of two-pointers and 40 percent of three-pointers, yielding the 12th-highest effective field goal percentage among all D-1 teams. Additionally, the Tritons seldom give the ball away, posting the 33rd-best offensive turnover rate.
I'm laying the points with the Tritons.
College Basketball Best Bet: UC San Diego -2.5
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Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Louisville +1.5
- Butler +14.5
- UC San Diego -2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
