We've got a couple of elite teams taking the court on Thursday's college basketball betting slate, but today we're shining the spotlight on a trio of games outside of the high-major conferences. Here are my predictions for three select matchups on Thursday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Liberty 
at Middle Tennessee 
At first glance, Liberty's offense seems like an overwhelming factor in this matchup, although Middle Tennessee's defense can't be overlooked.
The Blue Raiders' defense rating for the season won't grab much attention, but they've actually stepped up and played at a high level against league competition. During the conference season, Middle Tennessee's defense leads the league in efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, and three-point field goal percentage allowed. It's also holding league opponents to under 45 percent on shots inside the arc, second-best, and ranks fourth in rebounding, giving us an all-around solid unit that appears capable of withstanding Liberty's offense. This was also demonstrated earlier in the season when the Blue Raiders defeated Murray State on a neutral court, a team of similar caliber with slightly better overall and offensive metrics than Liberty.
Offensively, Middle Tennessee tends to rely on three-point shooting, but that's not the worst thing in the world, as it's shown to have a high ceiling when it gets hot. This was most evident when the Blue Raiders teed off against Louisiana Tech, hitting on 22-of-44 three-point attempts. Liberty has made almost 39 percent of three-pointers against Conference USA teams, while attempting them at the highest frequency in the league, so this game plan has certainly paid off at times.
Liberty's defense, meanwhile, has frequently gotten lit up by opponents from the perimeter. The Flames are allowing opponents to make 36 percent of their three-pointers (295th), and this has gotten worse during league play, as CUSA opponents have made 38 percent.
There's always a chance that Middle Tennessee's offensive game plan backfires on Thursday, but I'm betting its defense will keep them in position to go on a hot streak. I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Middle Tennessee +2
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Florida Atlantic 
at Memphis 
Memphis is having its worst season under head coach Penny Hardaway, having already suffered 10 losses, which is just one shy of matching its most losses in a season in the past six years under Hardaway.
Nearly all of the Tigers' struggles can be pinned on their offense, or rather, a lack of one. Memphis' offense ranks outside the top 210 teams in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage, free-throw attempt rate, and three-point and two-point field goal percentages. Their biggest flaw, however, is their unrelenting sloppiness. The Tigers rank among the top 25 worst teams in offensive turnover percentage, which is a problem in any matchup but even more so in this one.
According to KenPom data, Florida Atlantic thrives off opponents' turnovers to an extreme degree. For context, the Owls' defensive success is more correlated to an increase in opponents turnovers than the opponents effective field goal percentage. Similarly, Florida Atlantic's offensive production is significantly correlated with an increase in opponents' turnovers, suggesting the Owls feast on opponents' mistakes.
Memphis does have one saving grace offensively, although Wednesday's matchup again provides no favors. The Tigers rank 52nd in offensive rebounding percentage, a critical ability for a team that struggles in seemingly every other offensive category. But, coincidentally, the Owls boast the highest defensive rebounding percentage in the AAC since the conference season started.
At the other end of the court, Memphis usually plays stout defensively, although it does have an opening the FAU can likely exploit. Against conference opponents, Memphis has been vulnerable in the paint, allowing AAC teams to make over 52 percent of two-point attempts, the second-worst mark in the league. During the same span, Florida Atlantic has made almost 59 percent of two-point attempts, the highest mark in the conference.
Given FAU's multiple matchup advantages, I'm going with the Owls.
College Basketball Best Bet: Florida Atlantic +2.5
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Hawaii 
at UC Irvine
These two teams are somewhat similar at first glance, both having substantially better defenses than offenses, though a closer look reveals some notable differences.
First, while UC Irvine's defense is not far behind Hawaii in KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings (32nd vs. 25th), the former has a massive liability that the latter does not. Namely, the Anteaters do not consistently box out, ranking 255th in defensive rebounding percentage. This does not bode well on Thursday, as the Rainbow Warriors rank 88th in offensive rebounding and have the second-highest percentage in the Big West since the conference season tipped off. Hawaii began the season poorly on offense but has seen its numbers significantly improve during league play, posting the second-best marks in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding, and two-point field goal percentage, with a 57 percent mark against Big West opponents.
Defensively, meanwhile, Hawaii is at its best. In addition to the outstanding efficiency rating, the Rainbow Warriors are holding opponents 44 percent on two-point attempts (eighth), and 28 percent on three-point attempts (fifth), outputting the third-lowest effective field goal percentage allowed nationally. They also have the 16th-best defensive rebounding percentage, underscoring perhaps the biggest difference between these two defenses. For good measure, it's worth pointing out that Hawaii has maintained its form against league opponents, boasting the best defensive rating in the conference.
Hawaii already defeated UC Irvine once this season, having hosted the first round on Jan. 10, with Hawaii narrowly winning 67-66. Thursday's game will likely be another close one, but I like its chances of coming away with the win again. I'm taking the Rainbow Warriors.
College Basketball Best Bet: Hawaii pk
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Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Middle Tennessee +2
- Florida Atlantic +2.5
- Hawaii pk
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
