UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC 326 - Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
The UFC is in Las Vegas for its latest numbered event, which features quite a few intriguing bouts. We'll break down each matchup on the 13-fight slate, including the biggest underdog on the card, and a debutante who is interested in snatching necks. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA Betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Rafael Tobias ($9,000)
Diyar Nurgozhay was ticketed as a decent prospect prior to his UFC debut, but the upright posture, combined with seemingly no ability to grapple have left him with some particularly ugly-looking losses. I don't expect things to get much better against Tobias, who is a good athlete and can do a bit of everything in the cage. Nurgozhay remains a talented striker, but Tobias should be able to exploit the holes in his game.
Cody Brundage ($6,700)
"Good athlete" is about the only box Dionte Johnson checks as an MMA fighter. While this might be enough to steamroll Brundage, the 31-year-old has a real wrestling skill set and has shown himself to be a tough out more often than not. Johnson has fought outside of the first round just once in his professional career, and I need to see how he looks against a fighter who won't go away at the first sign of trouble.
Cody Durden ($7,800)
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel hits hard and is a crafty scrambler on the mat, but that power comes from wild swings, which allow him to be easily taken down. Durden is a tireless wrestler and a solid control grappler, who may find submission opportunities if Tumendemberel tries to rush back to his feet.
Long Xiao ($8,300)
Xiao should be able to match Cody Garbrandt for speed, which will take away his edge. Long is a strong wrestler who excels at managing distance, so I expect him to pick the former champion apart from range, while mixing in takedowns to upset his rhythm.
Brunno Ferreira ($7,600)
I'm all sorts of confused as to why this fight is happening now, as not only have these middling 185ers already fought each other in the UFC, but the result was definitive. Not much has changed in the careers of "The Hulk" and Gregory Rodrigues since Ferreira scored that first-round knockout in 2023, and I don't expect much to be different regarding the dynamics at play, either. Ferreira will likely quickly take the center of the cage, and "Robocop" is not nearly as effective off the back foot.
Michael Johnson ($8,200)
We have seen Drew Dober struggle with faster fighters before, and Johnson's speed remains intact as he closes in on year 40. Grappling has remained a bugaboo of Dober's as his ability to pressure effectively has waned, so look for Johnson to score with straight shots from range before getting his wrestling going.
Jeong Yeong Lee ($9,300)
If Lee is content to brawl, he will give Gaston Bolanos a real shot here, as "The Dreamkiller" is a crisp and powerful Muay Thai striker. However, with a 42 percent takedown defense rate in the UFC, the path to victory is clear for the Korean fighter. Lee has notched three of his 11 victories via submission, so he should be very comfortable bringing this fight to the ground.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks
Rob Font OVER 26.5 Significant Strikes, Rodolfo Bellato OVER 24.5 Significant Strikes, and Su Mudaerji OVER 48.5 Significant Strikes
Font's 46 percent takedown defense rate may put this one on shaky ground for some, but the veteran always finds ways to get back to his feet, as we saw when he landed 98 significant strikes against Jean Matsumoto despite being grounded seven times. Raul Rosas has had a tougher time looking dominant with each passing challenge, and Font should do enough to extend the bout and surpass his total.
Bellato's toughness is something to behold, as he is able to walk opponents down and land shots even when faced with significant disadvantages. Luke Fernandez will have a marked edge in speed here, but I still expect the Brazilian to take the center of the cage and go back and forth in exchanges.
Mudaerji's range striking game should play nicely against Jesus Aguilar, who tries to swing big shots in the pocket before working his grappling. The Chinese fighter's reach advantage measures a staggering 10 inches, making me wonder how Aguilar is going to find his way inside.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props too
UFC Betting Predictions to Consider
Alberto Montes Wins via Submission (+290)
Styles line up well for this one, as you won't see many fighters who take the opportunity to submission hunt as often as Montas, and Ricky Turcios is aggressive to the point of being careless in his wrestling game. "The Promise" should also be the much stronger fighter here, meaning he will be able to get the upper hand in 50-50 positions along the fence.
Max Holloway Wins via KO/TKO (+170)
Max showed in his bout with Justin Gaethje that he carries real power at lightweight, and Charles Oliveira was notorious for being hurt in fights, even at his peak. "Blessed" has always had excellent takedown defense, and I don't expect him to be overwhelmed by strength here, as Oliveira is not an especially big 155er.
Caio Borralho Wins via KO/TKO (+320)
A grappler in his own right, we have seen Borralho stand and strike when he knows it is his best path to victory. I'm not exactly writing Reinier de Ridder off after his loss to Brendan Allen, as he pushed his body to the limit in terms of weight cutting in 2025, but his lack of athleticism was always going to be an issue. The speed of the Brazilian should make the difference here, as he swarms before the Dutch fighter can get his game going.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC 326 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
Looking for a new sportsbook? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as a list of best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
