UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Mexico City - Moreno vs. Kavanagh
The UFC's Mexico City card is dominated by chalky favorites, making it a bit difficult to navigate for bettors and DFS players. We'll break down each fight across three platforms, including a flyweight who may be liver than his betting line indicates, and a knockout machine looking to make quick work of another opponent. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Ernesta Kareckaite ($9,100)
Kareckiate's odds to win may have gone down, but she looks to be in a better spot to pick up a victory against Regina Tarin after Sofia Montenegro was pulled from the bout. The 7-0-0 fighter has a nice ground game and is athletic for the weight class, but there is no reason to expect a 21-year-old to perform well on such short notice against a suffocating combination puncher like Kareckiate. Maybe she will show strength beyond her years, but this looks like another indication that the UFC is more interested in filling cards than developing talent.
Francis Marshall ($9,600)
We haven't seen Erik Silva since a leg injury ended his fight with Muhammadjon Naimov in 2024, and I doubt the time off did much for his 62 percent takedown defense rate. Francis Marshall is hittable, and dynamic, powerful offense is one of Silva's strengths, but the safe bet here is that Marshall rides his top control to a comprehensive victory.
Javier Reyes ($8,600)
Reyes is open to be hit and stays on his back foot, which could have made Douglas Silva de Andrade a viable play here a few years ago. However, we haven't seen the Brazilian in almost two years, and it's tough to know what to expect from a 40-year-old fighter who is low-output at the best of times. They say power is the last thing to go, but Reyes will likely win this fight by virtue of being the younger, more active fighter.
Ailin Perez ($8,500)
I have never been a fan of Macy Chiasson, whose success generally comes from the fact that she is stronger than her opponents. Perez is a better scrambler than Chiasson and should be able to compete physically, leaving me to wonder how Chiasson will generate offense in this one.
Felipe Bunes ($7,200)
Viable underdogs will be hard to come by on this slate, so I'm picking one with a fairly complete skill set, against a fighter in Edgar Chairez has shown himself to be hittable and holds just a 33 percent takedown defense rate. "Puro Chicali" is a good boxer with power at this weight class, but his opportunistic grappling shouldn't have much purchase against Bunes' scrambling ability.
Brandon Moreno ($8,500)
This fight wasn't overly interesting when Moreno's opponent was Asu Almabayev, and it smacks of being non-competitive since he was replaced with Lone'er Kavanagh. The 26-year-old is athletic and talented, but showed in his knockout loss to Charles Johnson that he may not have the temperament to compete when a bout turns into a dog fight. Moreno will look to torture his young opponent to the body and will stay in his face throughout, making this an unpleasant experience if Kavanagh can't find a way to get it done early.
Ryan Gandra ($9,500)
Jose Medina is uniquely unqualified to fight at this level, with his primary mode of offense being to mean-mug his opponent after being hit. Gandra is physically strong and has an active submission game, so I expect him to bring this fight to the ground and take the path of least resistance.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
David Martinez UNDER 76.5 Significant Strikes, Santiago Luna OVER 34.5 Significant Strikes, and Kris Moutinho UNDER 32.5 Significant Strikes
This feels like too many significant strikes to expect from a Marlon Vera fight, as he is typically hesitant to engage, which slows the pace to a crawl. Martinez didn't come close to hitting this mark against an action fighter in Rob Font, making me comfortable in my prediction here.
Luna's quick knockout win in his UFC debut may not tell the story of what to expect from him going forward, as he found an opponent in Quang Le who was willing to brawl with him. He should get a much more measured approach from Angel Pacheco, resulting in a longer bout that surpasses our total.
Moutinho is another fighter who doesn't belong in the UFC, but he gets higher marks than Medina for actually trying to win. Cristian Quinonez is comfortable being the hammer when he has a lesser opponent in front of him, so look for him to engage and try to get Moutinho out of the fight early.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props too
UFC Bets to Consider
Daniel Zellhuber wins via KO/TKO (+170)
I have been a fan of King Green for as long as I can remember, but age simply will not accommodate a style of fighting with your hands low while attempting to roll shots. This is particularly true if you are not a knockout puncher. Green fought a nip and tuck second round against a fighter he was expected to walk over in Lance Gibson, giving me no hope that he will know how to negotiate the power and length of Zellhuber.
Imanol Rodriguez Wins via KO/TKO (+125)
This may not be the best week for my rooting interests, as I've always found Kevin Borjas interesting as a slick boxer who can control distance. The problem comes against fighters who can overwhelm and not allow him to have the fight he wants. We've already seen Borjas knocked out by a big puncher in Alessandro Costa, and Immanol Rodriguez has speed and technique to match.
Damian Pinas Wins via first-round KO/TKO (+150)
Wes Schultz is a throwback to the era of leglock-or-bust fighters who would roll underneath their opponent and either get knocked out or win via submission. While he is not an exact copy of a fighter like Ian Entwistle, Schultz's striking is clunky and awkward enough that he will need to clinch for his life against Pinas, who has finished eight of his nine wins in the first or second round. Pinas can be taken down and likes to scramble a bit too much for his own good, so an against-all-odds submission win for Schultz is not completely off the table, but it is far more likely he gets melted within the first few exchanges.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Mexico City this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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