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Note: Time on Ice projections and picks can change frequently throughout the day due to injuries and changes to line combinations, especially power-play lines. I encourage readers to check the comments section below for any last-minute updates prior to puck drop.
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Card Overview: Not a great card today. We've got players' "flow" coming to an end, mixed with some lines that are making it difficult to pull the trigger. We might be entering a correction phase where it becomes hard to find plays for a bit, but worry not, because after this stretch, we'll find ourselves back in another positive phase. Whether that hits before the break or not is the question. There's enough here to make some plays, but I would be cautious tonight.
BUILDING BLOCKS
Rasmus Dahlin 26 vs. Montreal Canadiens - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
It took a while, but the market finally adjusted, moving Dahlin's number to 26 prior to his most recent game on Saturday. He just crept over that number on Saturday, and I'm expecting the same in this game. Buffalo enters this game as an underdog, and the Sabres will likely lean on their best defenseman a little more tonight. One trend that is a little troubling is that Dahlin's penalty kill time seems to be dropping. Let's hope the Sabres can stay off the PK tonight.
Moritz Seider 26.75 at Colorado Avalanche - 9:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
As long as Simon Edvinsson remains out, Seider is going to be a minutes machine. With that said, he put in less than 25 minutes in his most recent game, against this same Colorado team, but that game was a blowout. We'll need this game to stay somewhat close, and that's always a concern against Colorado, but you can never predict a blowout, so if this one stays close, whether behind or in the lead, Seider should get north of 27 minutes.
Filip Hronek 25.25 at Utah Mammoth - 9:30 p.m. ET (MORE)
Hronek's minutes went up in the immediate aftermath of the Quinn Hughes trade, but they went even higher when one of the pieces in that trade, Zeev Buium, left the lineup with a facial injury. Buium is expected to be out through the Olympic break, so we can expect Hronek's minutes to remain high. Hronek is slightly script-dependent, but that's rarely a concern because Vancouver is usually trailing. The Canucks were actually ahead for a large portion of the game on Saturday, and Hronek still managed to go over his number. Considering they are a big underdog tonight, I'm expecting another night of 26+ minutes.
INJURY DEPENDENT
Cale Makar 26.25 vs. Detroit Red Wings - 9:00 p.m. ET (LESS)
I had Makar in this spot on Saturday, and at the tim,e I thought there were two paths to victory, either a Devon Toews return or a positive script. Well, we got the positive script, and it didn't matter as Makar had more minutes than his line. With that in mind, Makar can still go under if Toews returns, and since he was seemingly close to returning on Saturday, I'm hoping he'll be back for this one. If so, then Makar should have less than 26 minutes.
SCRIPT DEPENDENT
Roman Josi 27.75 vs. St. Louis Blues - 9:00 p.m. ET (LESS)
The market not only caught up to Josi, but they may have pushed the line too far. With that said, Josi has gone over 28 minutes in each of his past five games, but two of those games went to OT, and three had a large portion of the game in a neutral or trailing script. I don't think Nashville wants to continue playing Josi at this pace, so if the Preds get ahead (and they are favored), look for them to give Josi a break. With a number this high, the Preds don't even have to be ahead for all that long; just a 10-minute stretch at any point might be enough to keep him under this line.
Quinn Hughes 28 vs. Montreal Canadiens - 7:30 p.m. ET (MORE)
I think I'm starting to figure out this Wild club. They really come to play against the better teams, especially from the West, but when they are at home, against lesser teams or teams not all that familiar to them, they often start slowly. Montreal isn't a lesser team, but the Wild certainly aren't familiar with them, so I'm expecting a slow start tonight, especially off a blowout win at Edmonton on Saturday. Hughes' minutes have been down a bit recently, but if they get behind, Hughes is still going to log a ton of minutes.
