This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Betting Preview
The PGA Tour returns to normalcy following last week's team event that saw Ben Griffin and Andrew Novak pair together for their maiden Tour victories. We're back to a full field event with a 36-hole cut for this week's return to Texas for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch. With a signature event next week and the PGA Championship the week after, it's not the strongest field, although Scottie Scheffler is headlining as the tournament favorite (+280) that includes seven players in the top-50 of the OWGR. Last year, longshot Taylor Pendrith (90-1 odds) captured his first victory by one stroke over Ben Kohles.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:30 PM ET Wednesday.
TPC Craig Ranch Overview
Par 71, 7,569 yards
These are the average rankings of the event champions since 2021:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 10.3
- SG: Approach: 12.8
- SG: Around-the-Green: 17.0
- SG: Putting: 16.3
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 2.8
- Driving Distance: 29.0
- Driving Accuracy: 34.3
TPC Craig Ranch has been stretched out about 150 yards compared to last year and it's one of the longest courses at over 7,500 yards. Off the tee, players will be forced to use driver often considering seven of the par-4s play over 460 yards. There is water throughout the course although it rarely comes into play and with the fairways averaging 37 yards wide, there's a slight premium on distance over accuracy. Looking at the stats above, tee to green play stands out as the key metric, with the winner ranking top-5 in the category in all four years of the event. The champion has reached 23-under in all four tournaments since the venue change from Trinity Forest, so we'll certainly need players capable of going low. Overall, I'm targeting quality drivers, birdie makers and good approach players from 200+.
Craig Ranch Risers
The following golfers have the lowest scoring average at TPC Craig Ranch (minimum two appearances):
- Byeong Hun An: 66.4
- Jordan Spieth: 67.1
- Ben Kohles: 67.3
- Scottie Scheffler: 67.5
- Si Woo Kim: 67.7
An has certainly enjoyed his two trips to the Dallas area with finishes of T14 and T4 last year, shooting 68 or better in all eight rounds. He ranks a solid 19th in SG: Off-the-Tee this season and comes in with three top-25s over his last five starts. The 33-year-old is still in search of his first PGA Tour victory and this looks to be a great spot for him to possibly get the monkey off his back as the fourth favorite at 25-1 odds. Right behind him on the odds board we find Si Woo Kim (30-1), who shared runner-up honors here in 2023 and has gained 1.25 strokes on approach over his last eight rounds at TPC Craig Ranch. His top-10 finish at Harbour Town two weeks ago in a signature event was his best of the year as he looks to keep the momentum going in the Lone Star State.
Best Ball-Strikers
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.
- Scottie Scheffler: 2.02
- Rico Hoey: 1.60
- Byeong Hun An: 1.30
- Alejandro Tosti: 1.16
- Kevin Yu: 1.11
Scheffler leads the way as the overwhelming favorite with Jordan Spieth being next on the board at 18-1. Odds wise, this will be Scheffler's best opportunity to end his eight-tournament winless drought. His results have improved every time he's played the Byron Nelson, most recently finishing T5 two years ago in which he ranked second in SG: Tee-to-Green. Another player on this list that's in good form from tee to green is Yu (75-1), who ranks 19th in the category on the season. The downside is that he's losing over half a stroke per round on the greens which has limited him to four top-20s. His one spike week putting last year led to his first Tour victory, so he's worth consideration at longshot odds.
New to golf betting? Check out the best golf betting promos to find the sportsbook that's right for you, featuring the top sign-up bonuses.
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Bets: Outright Picks
Mackenzie Hughes (45-1)
I'm looking to make it three tournaments in a row with outright winners, and I'll start off with Hughes, who has been hot himself with a T10 two starts back followed by a T3 in a signature event two weeks ago. Hughes finished T14 at Craig Ranch two years ago.
Taylor Moore (55-1)
Moore returned from a rib injury last week that sidelined him for a month which should have helped him shake the rust off. He had a strong start to the year with two top-10s in his first five events so we know the potential is there. Moore ranked 15th in SG: Tee-to-Green in his lone appearance at the event in 2022.
Patrick Rodgers (90-1)
Rodgers at 90-1 in a non-signature event? Sign me up! He hasn't played the event the last two years made the cut in both of his trips to TPC Craig Ranch and gained strokes with his ball striking in each. His ceiling is much higher than a lot of golfers priced above him.
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Henrik Norlander (6-1)
If you're searching for a player in good form, look no further, as Norlander is playing the best golf we've seen from him over the last few years. He's posted a top-20 in three of his last four starts, not including last week's T4 in the team event. Norlander is third in SG: Approach this year.
Max McGreevy (15-2)
McGreevy finished a respectable T30 here last year and notably led the field in SG: Approach. His ball striking has been in solid form this year as he ranks in the top-50 in SG: Off-the-Tee, approach and driving accuracy.
Mark Hubbard (10-1)
Hubbard is a perfect 3-for-3 in made cuts at TPC Craig Ranch and ranked third in SG: Approach in 2022. After struggling for most of the year, he sprung to life with a T12 in Puntacana two weeks ago.
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Will Zalatoris (-110) over Stephan Jaeger
Although the elite results haven't been there for Zalatoris in his search for his pre-injury form, he's posted six top-25s over his last 13 events and is 27th in SG: Tee-to-Green this season, so it's not like he isn't playing well. Zalatoris led the field in SG: Approach here in 2021. I'll take him over Jaeger, who is going through a caddie change and has lost strokes off the tee in five of his last six events.
Thorbjorn Olesen (-120) over Michael Thorbjornsen
Both players have had an elite finish recently, although Thorbjorsen's came in an alternate event while Olesen's was in a full field event in Texas. Olesen ranked in the top-10 in SG: Off-the-Tee and approach, so we know his long game is in good form. Thorbjornsen has missed more cuts than he's made this year, making him an easy fade in matchups.
Be sure to stay on top of everything going on in golf with RotoWire's latest PGA odds, the most up-to-date PGA injury report, our expansive PGA stats database and much more!
