Both Australian Open men's semifinals will be played Friday on the hard courts of Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia. Four familiar faces are set to take the court in these matchups, but is there anything underdogs Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic can do to prevent a fourth consecutive Grand Slam final matchup between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner?
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams are best of five sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Friday's men's semifinal matches.
Australian Open Tennis Picks: Alcaraz vs. Zverev
Carlos Alcaraz (-598) vs. Alexander Zverev (+453)
Alcaraz is motivated to complete the career Grand Slam by winning the Australian Open title, and he hasn't been troubled en route to the semifinals, reaching this point without dropping a set. The third-seeded Zverev has lost a set in four of his five matches and has yet to face an opponent seeded higher than 18th in this tournament. The top-seeded Alcaraz has the power, finesse and creativity to capitalize on Zverev's tendency to get passive in big moments, and the 22-year-old Spaniard has cut down on the lapses in form that have prevented him from winning an Australian Open title up to this point. This is Alcaraz's first time reaching the semifinals down under, but he has plenty of experience at this stage of Grand Slams, having won his last five major SFs to improve to 7-2 in them in his career. Zverev certainly seems to have a better chance of pulling off the upset compared to fellow Friday underdog Novak Djokovic, but it will likely take a combination of a strong Zverev serving performance and Alcaraz bringing a level below his B-game.
Those factors aligned for Zverev to upset Alcaraz in four sets in the quarterfinals of the 2024 Australian Open, and the German actually has an even 6-6 head-to-head split with Alcaraz, though Alcaraz has a 3-2 edge on outdoor hard courts and has won three of their four matchups overall since that Australian Open loss to Zverev. If the tournament is forced to close the roof on Rod Laver Arena by inclement weather, that would be a notable game-changer, as Zverev takes his game up a notch indoors, where he's 3-0 against Alcaraz. Unfortunately for the underdog, the forecast doesn't call for rain or extreme heat, so the roof's expected to stay open.
Australian Open Men's Semifinal Prediction: Alcaraz def. Zverev 7-6, 4-6, 6-3, 7-6
Australian Open Tennis Picks: Sinner vs. Djokovic
Jannik Sinner (-1160) vs. Novak Djokovic (+810)
Both of these players got a second lease on life in this tournament, but the factors leading to Sinner's near-elimination are no longer at play, as he struggled handling high heat in the third round that has since subsided while Djokovic was simply getting outplayed when Lorenzo Musetti retired due to a leg injury with a two-set lead in the quarterfinals. Sinner hasn't dropped a set since his third-round scare and comes into this match having won 19 consecutive matches at the Australian Open. Djokovic is a 10-time champion with 103 career match wins at the Australian Open, including two separate threepeats, but his best tennis is behind him at age 38, while the 24-year-old Sinner has found a formula that works in this head-to-head.
Sinner has won the last five matches between these greats from different generations, improving to 6-4 overall against Djokovic. The second-seeded Italian has taken the last nine sets between these two, including straight-set wins in the semifinals of both the French Open and Wimbledon last year. Their head-to-head on outdoor hard courts is 2-0 in favor of Sinner, including a four-set win in the semifinals of the 2024 Australian Open. The bull case for Djokovic is that he's as rested as can be at the semifinal stage of a Grand Slam, having played just over two sets in the last two rounds thanks to a pair of injuries to his opponents. Djokovic is a master tactician who will likely throw in some new wrinkles to change things up compared to their previous few encounters, but Sinner's tremendous power and accuracy from the baseline coupled with elite movement to defend when necessary should allow the favorite to take complete control of this matchup, just as he almost always does against every opponent other than Alcaraz.
Australian Open Men's Semifinal Prediction: Sinner def. Djokovic 6-4, 7-6, 6-2
