This article is part of our Sorare series.
Sometimes, you have to admit you were wrong. I was high on the Sporting Kansas City attack against the LA Galaxy. Sporting KC won the match 1-0 without attempting a shot (Maya Yoshida's own goal). That makes targeting the Sporting Kansas City attack one of the worst calls ever.
It didn't help that Yeimar Gomez decided to concede a penalty, wrecking Stefan Frei's clean sheet opportunity. The thought was there as Gomez had 28.32 AA, but the negative decisive killed any chance of a good score.
MLS has had many strange results this season, and I've been adjusting my personal strategy by playing more away players than I usually would (and maybe my picks here should start reflecting that).
Several top favorites seem to lay an egg in a great spot every week. I've tried to be too cute in my top picks, targeting underrated teams in good matchups. No excuses. I have to be better, and hopefully, the four highlighted picks I write up will be more successful than the past two weekends.
With the congested fixtures, my recommendations will be a little shorter, as I will give a high-end alternative and a value option at each position. When I have a whole week of preparation, I will return to the lengthy list of options.
Note: Player recommendations are not financial advice; I may or may not own these players in my Sorare gallery. I play under the username "SorareDeke" on Sorare.
Sorare GW 78 // MLS Week 12
Let's start this gameweek using the RotoWire Cheatsheets to see the best matchups with win odds and expected goals highlighted below. These teams have a greater than 50-percent chance of winning this weekend.
For access to the sheets, use promo code "ROTO15" for 15-percent off any RotoWire plan.
- Orlando City SC 59.23% (1.91 xG) vs. New England Revolution
- NYCFC 54.55% (1.72 xG) vs. CF Montreal
- Portland Timbers 54.40% (1.98 xG) vs. Sporting Kansas City
- New York Red Bulls 51.93% (1.77 xG) vs. LA Galaxy
- Nashville SC 50.88% (1.80 xG) vs. Charlotte FC
- FC Cincinnati 50.88% (1.70 xG) vs. Austin FC
- Colorado Rapids 50.56% (2.00 xG) vs. San Jose Earthquakes
- FC Dallas 49.74% (1.73) vs. Real Salt Lake
Note: Prices are for in-season limited cards as of Thursday, May 8. The scarcities are Limited (/1000), Rare (/100), Super Rare (/10), and Unique (1/1).
Optimal Plays
GOALKEEPERS
Carlos Coronel (RBNY) $24.21 vs. LA Galaxy
Coronel has been tremendous since returning from international duty, eclipsing 50 SO5 points in four of six matches. During this stretch, he's had two ceiling outputs, with 79.6 in Orlando and 86.4 against Montreal. This matchup might be the juiciest of them all.
The Galaxy are winless in league play, and the reigning champs have had a horrible start without Riqui Puig. Due to injury, the Galaxy will likely be without its other top two forward options, Joseph Paintsil and Gabriel Pec. With the lack of opposition attacking threats, Coronel grades out as my top goalkeeper play of the gameweek.
Expensive Option: Pedro Gallese (ORL) $36.80 vs. New England Revolution
Value Option: Sean Johnson (TOR) $15.70 vs. D.C. United
DEFENDERS
Omar Valencia (RBNY) $18.26 vs. LA Galaxy
Why not double down on the New York Red Bulls' defense? Sure, you could go with Noah Eile, as he's also a great option. I'm firing up the 100-upside option with full-back Omar Valencia. Valencia is averaging 68.42 SO5 points in his last five matches, including a perfect 100 against Chicago. Defensively, the Galaxy attack lacks firepower without Pec and Paintsil. Valencia will have the freedom to push forward without much worry due to the lack of pace in the Galaxy attack, which will likely consist of Diego Fagundez, Christian Ramirez and Marco Reus. Valencia is in a great spot to pick up an assist if the RBNY offense can get going.
Expensive Option: Miles Robinson (CIN) $18.47 vs. Austin
Value Option: Noah Eile (RBNY) $8.39 vs. LA Galaxy
MIDFIELDERS
Djordje Mihailovic (COL) $35.88 vs. San Jose
Here's a "put my money where my mouth is" pick. I ponied up (with market credits) for a rare Mihailovic this week to bolster my squad for the final 475-point MLS Hot Streak stage. Usually, I don't buy for just one gameweek, so this purchase is a long-term move for the MLS Masters Competition (home matchup against RSL that gameweek) and the remainder of the season.
Colorado hosts a San Jose team with only one clean sheet this season. The Rapids have the highest implied goal total at 2.00 and have a huge advantage playing at elevation at Dick's Sporting Goods Park. Mihailovic has factored in on 53 percent of Colorado's goals and should hit the board with a decisive against San Jose.
Expensive Option: David da Costa (POR) $12.89 vs. Sporting KC
Value Option: Brian Gutierrez (CHI) $5.53 vs. Atlanta United
FORWARDS
Rafael Navarro (COL) $16.61 vs. San Jose
Let's hope this attacking stack works better than last week's Sporting Kansas City horror show. There are goals to be had in this match, and Navarro has the highest implied goal-scoring odds of the slate at almost 48 percent. Navarro is dependable, going 90 minutes in all but one match this season (subbed in the 89th minute).
Navarro stands out as one of the best options on a slate that is pretty tough for forwards. Sure, like any forward, he can have some duds, but an upside performance of 75 or more points is squarely in play against San Jose.
Expensive Option: Philip Zinckernagel (CHI) $11.87 vs. Atlanta United
Value Option: Julian Fernandez (NYC) $4.50 vs. CF Montreal
