Top DFS Picks and Strategies for Houston
DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Houston card are live. Included in this preview are profiles for each fighter and breakdowns of my DFS strategy for every bout on the card. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
Top UFC Houston Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 28-10-0
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Alden Coria
Fanduel Captain: Hernandez/Coria
Sean Strickland (29-7-0) v. Anthony Hernandez (15-2-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 29-7 (11 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Elite jab, pressure, and defensive shell with high striking volume
- Can struggle when forced into heavy grappling and prolonged scrambles
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-2 (3 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Relentless pace grappler with cardio, pressure, and chain wrestling
- Injury concern exists, but when healthy, he overwhelms opponents with volume and control
DFS Perspective: The injury is the only real concern, but if Hernandez is truly healthy, this is a very strong stylistic spot for him. His relentless grappling, pace, and ability to force scrambles directly challenge Strickland's more boxing-heavy approach. Over three rounds, Hernandez's control time, takedowns, and pressure create a much higher DFS ceiling than Strickland's volume-based striking. If he tests the injury well and pushes his usual pace, Hernandez is a premium DFS play and one of the most attractive options on the Houston card.
UFC Houston Pick: Hernandez
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Geoff Neal (16-7-0) v. Uros Medic (12-3-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 16-7 (10 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Powerful boxer with clean counters and knockout ability
- Has shown limited progression recently and can be hittable in early exchanges
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 12-3 (10 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Explosive striker with improving composure and finishing instincts
- Aggressive early starter who looks to overwhelm opponents quickly
DFS Perspective: This is a must-target fight for DFS given the strong likelihood of an early finish. Neal still carries power, but his recent stagnation and defensive openings make him vulnerable to fast starters. Medić's aggression, improvement, and willingness to push the pace early give him a clear path to an early knockout. He profiles as a high-ceiling tournament play with strong first-round finish equity and slate-breaking upside if this ends quickly.
UFC Houston Pick: Medic
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Dan Ige (19-10-0) v. Melquizael Costa (25-7-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19-10 (7 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Extremely durable and always competitive against high-level opponents
- Tough to finish but can be outworked by higher-volume fighters
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 25-7 (8 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Riding strong momentum with improving confidence and activity
- Aggressive, well-rounded offense with the ability to mix striking and grappling
DFS Perspective: Ige is always live due to his durability and experience, but Costa's current run and higher activity level give him the DFS edge. Costa's willingness to push pace and mix in offense across all phases should allow him to outwork Ige over three rounds. While Ige's toughness limits pure finishing upside, Costa still offers solid volume-based scoring with potential late-finish equity, making him the preferred DFS play.
UFC Houston Pick: Costa
Serghei Spivac (17-6-0) v. Ante Delija (26-7-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-6 (7 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Grappling-heavy heavyweight with strong takedowns and top control
- Striking defense is limited and he struggles when forced to fight at range
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 26-7 (12 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Powerful striker with good size and finishing ability
- Most dangerous when fights stay standing and at striking range
DFS Perspective: This fight largely hinges on whether Spivac can secure early control. If he establishes takedowns and top position, he has a clear path to strong DFS scoring through control time and potential submission threats. However, if he is unable to control the grappling exchanges, Delija's size, power, and striking volume could allow him to piece Spivac up on the feet. From a DFS standpoint, this is a volatile heavyweight matchup where the winner is very likely to score well, making it a strong tournament target on both sides.
UFC Houston Pick: Delija
Jacobe Smith (11-0-0) v. Josiah Harrell (11-0-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 11-0 (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Undefeated prospect with strong finishing instincts and physicality
- Dangerous once he settles into rhythm and begins dictating pace
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 11-0 (6 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Well-rounded undefeated fighter with solid composure
- Taking the fight on short notice, which raises cardio and preparation concerns
DFS Perspective: This fight may look competitive early, especially given both fighters' undefeated records, but the short-notice factor heavily favors Smith as the fight progresses. Harrell's durability and skill set could keep things close in the opening exchanges, but Smith's preparation, power, and ability to dictate pace should take over. Smith is the preferred DFS play with strong finishing upside and a realistic path to handing Harrell his first loss, particularly if the fight extends beyond the early rounds.
UFC Houston Pick: Smith
Zachary Reese (10-2-0) v. Michel Pereira (31-14-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 10-2 (5 KO/TKO, 3 submission)
- Explosive finisher with size, power, and early aggression
- Defensive durability and composure remain question marks against experienced opponents
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 31-14 (11 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Extremely experienced and dangerous finisher with creativity across all phases
- Three-fight losing streak is a concern, but skill set and finishing ability remain high
DFS Perspective: Pereira's losing streak makes him risky, but his experience gap and finishing upside make him very live in this matchup. Reese is dangerous early and carries real power, yet he can be hittable and chaotic, which plays into Pereira's opportunistic style. If Pereira shows up at full potential, he has clear paths to a finish via striking or submission. He profiles as a high-variance tournament play with strong upside, while Reese remains a volatile boom-or-bust option.
UFC Houston Pick: Pereira
Chidi Njokuani (25-11-0) v. Carlos Leal (22-7-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 80" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 25-11 (15 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Long, technical striker with real power at range
- Durability and consistency issues have shown in prolonged, high-paced fights
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-7 (11 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Tough, high-volume fighter who thrives in gritty exchanges
- Willing to absorb damage to maintain pressure and output
DFS Perspective: Both fighters are likely to have their moments, especially early with Njokuani's length and striking danger. However, Leal's toughness, pace, and willingness to push volume over three rounds give him the clearer DFS path. If he can close distance and force extended exchanges, he should be able to outwork Njokuani as the fight progresses. Leal profiles as the preferred DFS play with strong volume-based scoring and potential late-fight momentum.
UFC Houston Pick: Leal
Ode Osbourne (13-9-0) v. Alibi Idiris (10-1-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 13-9 (5 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Lengthy, athletic striker who prefers range and measured exchanges
- Can be hesitant and low-output in slower-paced fights
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-1 (4 KO/TKO, 1 submissions)
- Pressure-oriented fighter but still relatively untested at higher levels
- May struggle to force consistent engagements against longer, range-based opponents
DFS Perspective: This projects as a potential slow, low-output matchup and is shaping up as more of a fade spot for DFS. Both fighters could have moments, but the pacing risk is high if Osbourne stays at range and Idiris fails to consistently close distance. Without sustained grappling or high-volume striking, the scoring ceiling on both sides looks limited. Unless salary or ownership creates a unique leverage angle, this fight is best treated as a fade in most DFS builds.
UFC Houston Pick: Idiris
Alden Coria (11-3-0) v. Luis Gurule (10-2-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-3 (5 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Coming off an upset debut win with strong composure and confidence
- Well-rounded skill set that allows him to control fights across multiple phases
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-2 (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Scrappy and willing to engage, but limited experience at higher levels
- Can be outmatched technically against more complete opponents
DFS Perspective: Coria is in a strong spot following his upset debut win and should have clear advantages in composure, experience, and overall skill set. Gurule may have moments early, but this looks like a matchup where Coria can dictate pace, control exchanges, and separate as the fight goes on. He profiles as a solid DFS play with a strong win probability and potential for either a clear decision or late finish if the skill gap shows.
UFC Houston Pick: Coria
Nora Cornolle (9-3-0) v. Joselyne Edwards (16-6-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-3 (6 KO/TKO, 2 submission)
- Physical striker with real power and finishing intent early
- Can slow down if unable to secure an early finish
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-6 (7 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Noticeable defensive improvements and more composed striking approach
- Increasingly well-rounded with the ability to win competitive rounds
DFS Perspective: The Edwards of a couple years ago may have been at real risk of getting knocked out here, but her defensive growth and composure make this a much more manageable matchup now. She has shown better durability, smarter shot selection, and flashes of developing power, which should allow her to edge exchanges over time. However, this projects as a lower-scoring fight unless there is an early finish. Edwards is the preferred DFS side, but more as a moderate floor, low-ceiling play rather than a slate-breaking option.
UFC Houston Pick: Edwards
Ramiz Brahimaj (13-5-0) v. Punahele Soriano (12-4-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-5 (1 KO/TKO, 12 submissions)
- Dangerous submission specialist with strong grappling instincts
- Always a live threat if the fight hits the mat or enters scrambles
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 12-4 (7 KO/TKO, 2 submission)
- Powerful striker with explosive early offense
- Can struggle if fights become grappling-heavy or extend into deeper rounds
DFS Perspective: This is a difficult fight to call and highly dependent on where it takes place. Brahimaj is always a considerable submission threat and could end the fight quickly if he secures top position or catches a scramble. Soriano, meanwhile, has the power and explosiveness to do serious damage on the feet early. From a DFS standpoint, this is a volatile matchup with real finish equity on both sides, making it a strong tournament target rather than a safe play. The winner is very likely to score well, especially if a finish materializes.
UFC Houston Pick: Soriano
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (9-2-0) v. Phil Rowe (11-6-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-2 (3 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Well-rounded fighter with solid fundamentals across all phases
- Composed approach that allows him to dictate pace and control exchanges
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 80" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 11-6 (7 KO/TKO, 4 submission)
- Long striker with knockout power and reach advantage
- Relies heavily on striking and can be outmatched in well-rounded matchups
DFS Perspective: Rowe's length and power always give him a puncher's chance, but this matchup looks unfavorable if he cannot keep the fight purely on the feet. Lebosnoyani's more complete skill set and ability to mix phases should allow him to neutralize Rowe's striking advantage over time. If Rowe cannot impose his range consistently, he may struggle to get this done. Lebosnoyani profiles as the preferred DFS side with a solid path to a decision win or late finish through control and composure.
UFC Houston Pick: Lebosnoyani
Yadier del Valle (10-0-0) v. Jordan Leavitt (12-3-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10-0 (2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Aggressive finisher with solid striking pressure and physicality
- Dangerous when dictating pace and forcing opponents into exchanges
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 12-3 (2 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Grappling-focused fighter with strong takedown and submission game
- Limited striking output and relies heavily on control-based victories
DFS Perspective: This matchup likely comes down to whether Leavitt can impose his grappling or if del Valle keeps the fight standing. Leavitt's submission threat is always real and gives him a clear path if he secures early takedowns. However, if del Valle is able to defend entries and force striking exchanges, his pressure and finishing upside become much more dangerous. From a DFS standpoint, this is a stylistic fight with finish equity on both sides, making it a solid tournament target rather than a safe, high-floor play.
UFC Houston Pick: del Valle
Carli Judice (5-2-0) v. Juliana Miller (4-3-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 5-2 (5 KO/TKO)
- Technical striker with good composure and range management
- Prefers to keep fights standing and control the pace
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 4-3 (1 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Grappling-heavy fighter who relies on scrambles and top control
- Can be hittable on the feet when forced into striking exchanges
DFS Perspective: This matchup is largely defined by whether Miller can secure takedowns and turn the fight into a grappling-heavy contest. If the fight stays standing, Judice's cleaner striking and composure should allow her to control exchanges and win rounds. Miller's grappling gives her a path to DFS scoring through control time, but her low striking output limits overall ceiling. Judice profiles as the slightly safer DFS side, while Miller is more of a volatility-based tournament play if she can impose her grappling early.
UFC Houston Pick: Judice
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
