This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
UFC Baku: MMA Betting Picks and Odds Insight
The UFC is in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Saturday, June 21, for a solid UFC Baku card. The main event of the card sees former light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill taking on Khalil Rountree.
Below, I'll share my UFC Baku predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Hamdy Abdelwahab (4-0) vs Mohammed Usman (10-4)
Opening up UFC Baku is a heavyweight bout between Hamdy Abdelwahab and Mohammed Usman, and I'm backing Abdelwahab to remain undefeated.
Abdelwahab is coming off a split decision win over Jamal Pogues, and before that, he beat Don'Tale Mayes (though it was overturned to a no-contest). Abdelwahab is a great wrestler, and he should be able to control Usman on the fence and on the mat.
Usman has 60 percent takedown defense, while Abdelwahab has an 80 percent takedown accuracy. Usman is on a two-fight losing streak and doesn't throw much volume either. This fight won't be all that exciting, but Abdelwahab should be able to use his wrestling to get the win.
UFC Baku Bet: Hamdy Abdelwahab (-170)
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Weight Class: Lightweight
Rafael Fiziev (12-4) vs Ignacio Bahamondes (17-5)
For my underdog pick at UFC Baku, I'm taking Rafael Fiziev to get the upset win over Ignacio Bahamondes.
Fiziev and Bahamondes are both high-level strikers, so this should be a very fun fight. Fiziev is a slight +105 underdog, and I personally had him as a -145 favorite, which makes it a play for me.
Although Bahamondes has a four-inch reach advantage, Fiziev is dangerous and knows how to get on the inside. Fiziev has lost three in a row, but one was due to a leg injury, and the other two came by decision to No. 3-ranked lightweight Justin Gaethje in close fights.
I like Fiziev to land the more damaging shots here. He could even use his wrestling to help win minutes and ultimately get the nod from the judges.
UFC Baku Bet: Rafael Fiziev (+105)
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Weight Class: Light heavyweight
Khalil Rountree (13-6) vs Jamahal Hill (12-3)
The main event of UFC Baku should be a fun fight for however long it lasts, and for my prop, I'm taking Khalil Rountree to win by knockout.
Hill has been knocked out in back-to-back fights, and he has a problem with avoiding the left hook. Rountree is a powerful Muay Thai striker, and his left hook is one of his strong suits.
Hill's chin and defense are a worry here against a powerful striker like Rountree. I like Rountree to be able to connect early with that hook and likely KO Hill in the first or second round.
UFC Baku Bet: Khalil Rountree by KO/TKO/DQ (+120)
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Weight Class: Lightweight & heavyweight
Nazim Sadykhov (10-1-1) vs Nikolas Motta (15-5)
Curtis Blaydes (18-5) vs Rizvan Kuniev (13-2-1)
For my parlay at UFC Baku, I'm taking Nazim Sadykhov and Curtis Blaydes to get their hands raised.
Sadykhov is taking on Nikolas Motta, and this is a good spot for him to get the win. Sadykhov is a great striker, and coming off a stoppage win over Ismael Bonfim, now takes on Motta, who is on a two-fight winning streak. His chin is still a concern, however. Sadykhov will be able to land the better strikes, and I expect him to find Motta's chin en route to the knockout win.
To close out the parlay, I like Blaydes to beat Kuniev, who's making his UFC debut. Kuniev is getting a massive step up in competition in his debut, and although Blaydes' chin is a bit of a worry, I expect him to use his wrestling here.
Blaydes should be able to use his takedowns to control the fight and win a decision. He could even get a ground-and-pound TKO.
UFC Baku Bet: Nazim Sadykhov & Curtis Blaydes parlay (-145)
UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Baku card.
- Hamdy Abdelwahab (-170)
- Rafael Fiziev (+105)
- Khalil Rountree by KO/TKO/DQ (+120)
- Nazim Sadykhov & Curtis Blaydes parlay (-145)
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