Welcome to Week 16 of the NFL season and another edition of the Underdog Pick'Em article. I'll break down some of my favorite picks of the weekend, relying heavily on the data found at the links below. For those who want to make picks of their own, those two resources are a great place to start.
Individual player stats - https://www.rotowire.com/football/player-stats.php?view=receiving
Defense vs. Position stats- https://www.rotowire.com/football/defense-vs-pos.php?scoringtype=ppr
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Higher
DJ Moore vs. GB – higher than 46.5 receiving yards
This selection is less about Moore and more about the missing pieces in the Bears' offense. Luther Burden (ankle) and Rome Odunze (foot) are both out, leaving Moore and Colston Loveland as the primary pass catchers for Caleb Williams. Moore has a very modest projection given that context, and he should have a solid showing even despite his disappointing season to this point. Loveland is also worth considering ,with a current projection of 47.5 yards.
Jalen Coker vs. TB - higher than 36.5 receiving yards
It can be difficult to judge the Carolina offense because it is so run heavy. The Panthers have the fourth-lowest pass rate over expectation on the season and have the lowest pass rate over expectation in the last four weeks. That's not a particularly positive way to set scene for this selection, but Coker has still managed to emerge as a key target in the last three weeks. He's run 100 percent of routes twice in that span, while also seeing a significant uptick in air yards. This matchup could also be high-scoring, pushing the Panthers out of their typical run-first ways.
Aaron Jones at NYG – higher than 16.5 receiving yards
The Giants are another defense that can be attacked either on the ground or through the air, and they are particularly abysmal at stopping running backs in either facet of the game. They allow 5.89 yards per carry to opposing backs (highest in the league by 0.51 yards) and the fourth-most total receiving yards to opposing running backs. Jordan Mason will take away rushing work from Jones, but Jones has at least three catches in five of his last six games.
Jahmyr Gibbs vs. PIT – longest rush higher than 17.5 yards
The Steelers run defense has been suspect most of the season, and a lot of that has come on explosive plays – especially recently by allowing four rushers to log a rush of at least 18 yards in their last five games. Meanwhile, Gibbs hasn't been all that consistent as a runner, but he has popped for 10 gains of 20 yards or more. That's tied for second in the league, matching Derrick Henry and behind only De'Von Achane. This matchup is strength on weakness, and Gibbs is on the right side of things.
Parker Washington at DEN – higher than 28.5 receiving yards
Jakobi Meyers has taken over as the primary steady target in the Jaguars' offense, but Washington still has a meaningful role. Setting aside his partial game against the Titans, he has surpassed this projection in three of his four games since Meyers has joined the team. Denver is also likely to focus primarily on stopping Meyers and Brian Thomas, which should open opportunity for Washington and Brenton Strange. The Broncos remain a stingy defense, but this a modest projection for Washington's role in the Jaguars' offense.
Lower
Breece Hall at NO – lower than 61.5 rushing yards
The Saints have been competitive in recent weeks, taking down the leaders of the NFC South in each of their last two games. That momentum should continue in Week 16 against a Jets team that has turned the page to 2026. These teams heading in opposite directions creates opportunity to take the lower on Hall. The Jets gave Isaiah Davis some additional opportunity in Week 15, limiting Hall to only 12 carries, and there's a good chance that workload split continues for the final three games of the regular season. The Saints have been vulnerable on the ground for most of the season, but they have effectively limited Chuba Hubbard, Rico Dowdle and Bucky Irving on the ground in recent weeks.
Tyler Warren vs. SF – lower than 35.5 receiving yards
The Colts offense is going to run through Jonathan Taylor for the rest of the season, and opponents know it. The 49ers are likely to pack the box and make Philip Rivers beat them deep, something his arm likely no longer allows him to do. That will congest the areas that Warren primarily works, limiting him to very short gains on his receptions. He was already slowing considerably from his early-season pace and has been held below 30 receiving yards in four of his last six games, including three consecutive contests.
