The fantasy football offseason is essentially a months-long stock market. Player values rise and fall as coaching changes happen, depth charts shift and news breaks across the league. With NFL free agency just ahead, let's look at some key quarterbacks and running backs whose value could shift soon. Next week, we'll look at where free agents landed.
Staying ahead of the market is critical in best ball fantasy football. Missing early value shifts can cost you league-winning upside. If you've missed any previous installments of this series, you can find them here.
Wide Receiver
Mike Evans
Evans has done a remarkable job holding off Father Time. However, he turns 33 this summer and age will inevitably start to play a larger role.
During his first 10 seasons, Evans missed just eight games. His last two years, he missed 12 games. Injuries can be random, but durability becomes a bigger issue with aging players.
Even before suffering two major injuries last season, Evans averaged just five catches and 47 yards in the three games prior. In eight games overall, the only time he exceeded 56 receiving yards was a 132-yard explosion against the defensively challenged Falcons.
The biggest advantage Evans still holds is his size — 6-foot-5, 230. With his large frame, defenders won't be able to bully him on the boundary. If he lands with a strong-armed quarterback willing to attack downfield, I'll still draft Evans, but only if he comes at a discount based on his recent injuries.
Tyreek Hill
Hill said he plans to return from the devastating knee injury he suffered in Week 4 last season. However, the situation carries plenty of uncertainty.
Before the injury, Hill showed signs of slight decline, though part of that was probably related to the limitations of Tua Tagovailoa.
Hill's injury wasn't a simple ACL tear, it involved multiple ligament injuries. That complicates the recovery timeline, especially for a player entering his age-32 season whose game relies heavily on elite speed.
It won't be surprising if Hill begins the season on the PUP list and potentially misses a significant portion of the year. Even when he returns, there's no guarantee he resembles the player he once was.
Unless strong reports about his recovery emerge soon, I'm comfortable letting someone else take the risk, especially if he's being drafted inside the top-120 picks.
Alec Pierce
The Colts placed the transition tag on Daniel Jones, creating the possibility that Pierce reaches the open market.
Pierce broke out in 2024 with 824 yards and seven touchdowns despite inconsistent quarterback play. He followed that with an even stronger 2025 season, posting 1,003 yards and six touchdowns in 15 games.
One of the most impressive aspects of last season was his ability to produce with multiple quarterbacks. He recorded two games with at least 86 yards and two touchdowns while catching passes from Philip Rivers.
Pierce is best known as a downfield receiver, but he has improved significantly in the short and intermediate areas. At this point, he profiles as a legitimate full-time starting outside receiver.
If Pierce lands with a high-level quarterback, he has the potential to continue building on the success of the last two seasons.
Deebo Samuel
Samuel has missed just five games in the last three seasons, which is encouraging. However, his production the last two years resembles that of an aging player who has absorbed significant physical punishment during his seven-year career.
His average depth of target ranked in the fifth percentile, showing how limited his downfield usage has become. On the positive side, he still displayed playmaking ability with an 89th percentile yards-after-catch rate.
Entering his age-30 season, Samuel would be best suited as a slot receiver in a high-volume passing offense with a strong quarterback.
Even in an ideal landing spot, he won't be in my top-40 wide receivers. The production cliff could come quickly, so he's someone I'll only consider in the later rounds.
Wan'Dale Robinson
Robinson has been one of my favorite late-round PPR targets the last two years, and he has delivered strong returns. Last season, he posted a career year with 92 catches, 1,014 yards and four touchdowns.
A repeat performance, however, seems unlikely.
Robinson's target volume increased significantly after Malik Nabers suffered an ACL injury in Week 4. Without that injury, Robinson likely would have played a much smaller role in the offense.
Additionally, the Giants rarely allowed Robinson to run anything beyond short routes. He consistently ranked among the lowest average depth-of-target receivers in the NFL.
If he lands in an offense that emphasizes slot usage, Robinson could produce 700-800 yards. However, many teams are playing fewer snaps with three wide receivers than ever before. Because of that, I'll only consider drafting him if he falls outside the top-80 picks.
Jauan Jennings
Jennings broke out in 2024 with 975 yards and six touchdowns, establishing himself when Brandon Aiyuk went down with a knee injury. He even posted three 90-yard games in a five-week stretch before fading late in the season.
Last year brought a sharp decline. Jennings had just one game with more than 71 receiving yards and averaged only 41 yards per game in his final eight games.
He's an excellent blocker, which NFL suitors will value. However, if he's no longer in Kyle Shanahan's offensive system, last year's 643-yard season may represent his realistic ceiling.
Unless he lands with a strong quarterback in a thin receiving room, Jennings isn't someone I expect to target in fantasy drafts.
Rashid Shaheed
There's no question that Shaheed is one of the most explosive receivers in the NFL. Unfortunately, his situation in New Orleans and then in Seattle after he was traded limited his fantasy impact last season. Bad quarterback play held him back with the Saints, and the Seahawks didn't use him as a downfield threat as much as expected.
Unless Shaheed lands somewhere with a clear path to a starting role, it's difficult to imagine him surpassing the career-high 75 targets he received in 2023.
The most intriguing fantasy scenario would be pairing Shaheed with a quarterback capable of extending plays and throwing deep, such as Justin Herbert. Otherwise, he projects as a late-round option in fantasy leagues.
Brandon Aiyuk
Aiyuk tore his ACL after seven games in 2024 and hasn't played since. Clarity about his situation in San Francisco has been limited, and there have even been whispers that his rehab process hasn't gone smoothly.
If Aiyuk is healthy, his track record is impressive. In three healthy seasons, he averaged 76 catches, 1,179 yards and 7.5 touchdowns.
While he was an excellent fit in Kyle Shanahan's system, Aiyuk is far more than a system receiver. He consistently creates separation quickly and is dangerous after the catch.
Until we get clearer updates on his recovery, there will be more questions than answers. Still, if he signs a contract that reflects starter-level expectations, a late-round flier on a player with his track record is an investment I'm willing to make.
Tight End
Dallas Goedert
Goedert played 15 games last season, his highest total since 2021. Outside of his 496-yard season in 10 games during 2024, he has regularly produced seasons of roughly 590 yards while playing about 14 games.
The biggest outlier was his 11 touchdowns last season, nearly matching the 12 touchdowns he scored the previous four years combined.
Goedert is an excellent receiver, but he has averaged only 73 targets per season the last seven years. Now entering his age-31 season, he carries both age concerns and a lengthy injury history.
However, if he goes to a team that heavily features the tight end in the passing game, Goedert could produce strong numbers. Because injuries tend to suppress his draft cost, I'll gladly take the discount if the landing spot is favorable.
Travis Kelce
This situation is fairly straightforward: Kelce will either return to the Chiefs or retire.
He'll turn 37 early in the 2026 season, but he's still coming off a respectable season with 851 yards and five touchdowns. Another year of decline is likely, but if Kelce remains paired with Patrick Mahomes, it's difficult to imagine him finishing with fewer than 700 receiving yards.
As a floor-based tight end drafted outside the top 9 at the position, I'll have mild interest.
Isaiah Likely
The fantasy community has been intrigued by Likely for years. However, consistent production has been difficult to achieve in Baltimore's run-heavy offense that often featured Mark Andrews as the primary receiving tight end.
It's easy to argue that Likely's talent has been suppressed by his situation. At the same time, the Ravens frequently faced defenses focused on stopping the run, allowing their tight ends a free release.
If Likely signs as a starting tight end, his ADP will rise. But I'm not convinced any coaching staff will feature him heavily enough to make him a target hog. The fantasy market tends to love Likely more than I, so I'll likely remain out.
David Njoku
Njoku posted a career year in 2023 with 882 yards and six touchdowns. However, in the surrounding three seasons he missed a combined 14 games and now enters his age-31 season.
Durability is the biggest concern, particularly for a tight end at this stage of his career.
If Njoku signs with a team that clearly intends to feature him as its primary tight end, I would still prefer to draft him only if he falls outside the top 12 at the position. In that scenario, I would likely punt the position and draft two late-round tight ends in hopes that one emerges.
It's also important to remember that Cleveland's quarterback play has been among the worst in the league the last two years. If Njoku goes to team with a strong quarterback in a pass-friendly offense, his per-game production could make him a weekly starter.
Conclusion
These are the wide receivers and tight ends whose fantasy football stock has recently shifted based on the upcoming free agency period. Staying on top of offseason movement is critical as early best ball drafts and 2026 rankings begin to take shape. For the latest depth chart updates and player movement, be sure to visit RotoWire's NFL depth charts.
