Best Ball ADP Analysis: Rookie ADP Movement After the NFL Scouting Combine

The NFL Scouting Combine arguably isn't as important as it once was, now that NFL teams have on-field tracking data to measure things like top speed and acceleration within a game environment. It's still fun for fans, however, and there's still some actionable data that impacts  NFL best ball ADPs.

Top prospects like Jeremiyah Love and Kenyon Sadiq improved their draft stock with impressive times in the 40-yard dash, and their best ball ADPs soon followed. In many cases, the players with rising 2026 ADPs are the same ones that moved up the board when RotoWire's Mario Puig released his Post-Combine Rookie Rankings (Top 70).

Most of those guys are late-round prospects or likely UDFAs who typically go undrafted in early best ball drafts, but there are also 18 rookies with top-200 ADPs on Underdog. A typical Underdog draft might have 25 rookies drafted overall, with that number likely rising some throughout the spring.

Rookie ADP Movement

Note that the data below comes from Underdog, with the third column showing the gap between ADPs on March 6 (post-Combine) and those from February 23 (pre-Combine). A positive value indicates that the player has moved up (now being picked earlier than before, on average).

Note: Full Combine workout numbers can be found HERE.

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The major ADP movements seen above largely correspond with what happened at the Combine. The players who skipped drills (e.g. WR Jordyn Tyson, WR Elijah Sarratt) mostly fell a few spots, while workout warriors like Jeremiyah Love, Kenyon Sadiq, Mike Washington and Eli Stowers shot up by significant margins.

For Washington, and arguably Sadiq, there are concerns that they may be workout warriors... and not much else. I was fine with Washington as an endgame pick before, but I'm not quite willing to pay for the workout numbers after he rose by five full rounds.

If anything, I'd rather target the discount on someone like Sarratt, or Emmett Johnson, who ran a 4.56 40 at 5-foot-10, 202 pounds. That's a bad time, but not disqualifying, so Johnson still seems likely to be picked on Day 2 (or early Day 3).

One thing that surprised me? Jadarian Price (ADP 97.4) didn't lose any ground. From looking at his film, I hoped for more in terms of both 40 time (4.49) and weight (203 pounds). A 4.45 at 210+ pounds would have cemented him as the type of athlete worth taking a shot on in Round 2. Now I'm not so sure.

In terms of the top values available, I'm a fan of the Big 3 WRs (Tate/Tyson/Lemon) in an ADP range (Rounds 5/6) where the veteran options look kind of stinky this year. I also think there are some fantastic end-game options, namely TE Eli Stowers, though he's creeping more toward Rounds 15-16 than true endgame range. Stowers was excellent for Vanderbilt the past two years, and his jumps at the Combine hint at unusual explosiveness for a tight end.

WRs Ted Hurst and Ja'Kobi Lane did good work at the combine, yet you can probably still get them with your final two picks in an 18-round draft. Now let's look at more of the rookies who typically go unselected...

 WR Deion Burks, WR Brenen Thompson and QB Taylen Green are still widely going undrafted, after impressive showings at the Combine. They could perhaps sneak into Day 2, but it seems like people are still expecting Day 3 for the most part. Looking at the whole package, rather than just Combine workouts, I think the most interesting names from this list (for 2026 best ball at least) are WR Antonio Williams and WR Skyler Bell.

Veteran ADP Movement

The headline here is Houston's pending trade for David Montgomery, which has already led to considerable ADP boosts for both Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, while Woody Marks predictably has dropped by more than a round.

Other major news items that show up in ADP movement include Stefon Diggs' release, Malik Willis rumors (to Arizona?), the Javonte Williams re-signing, and Breece Hall's franchise tag. The DJ Moore trade still needs more time to marinate, though it's already clear he's moving up at least a few spots after the announcement that he'll join forces with Josh Allen.

Other things to note: 

• Anxiety about Cam Skattebo's return from injury
• Optimism about RB Jordan Mason (with Aaron Jones set to be released)
• Willis and Kyler Murray moving up
• A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith moving up a couple spots apiece (AJB trade rumors)
• Rachaad White and Najee Harris moving up