DraftKings College Football DFS Picks: CFB Week 3 DFS Plays

DraftKings College Football Main Slate Week 3 Picks and Strategy

We're back in the saddle for Week 3 -- thanks to Jeff Edgerton for holding it down while I was out last week -- and we're ready to rock. 

The Week 3 slate is littered with games with totals between 52.5 and 62.5, though there are a few games beneath that threshold that we need to consider as well. For the most part, the field will be drawn to the teams with high totals like Texas, Texas Tech, USC, and Oregon. 

There's a ton of entertainment value on this slate between the Georgia Tech-Clemson, Miami-USF, and UGA-Tennessee games. I might just leave those games on my TV and out of my lineups, though. Let's dig into the ways we can attack the Saturday main slate over on DraftKings

Slate Overview

High Totals, Tight Spreads

Finding a game with a high over/under where both teams are expected to be competitive is always a primary goal for building our lineups. Games like that create a great scoring environment on both sides with little worry about the star players being pulled, like we do when a game gets lopsided. 

This week, unfortunately, doesn't offer many games that fit this bill. The high totals (Texas Tech-Oregon State; USC-Purdue; Miami-USF; Iowa State-Arkansas State) are mostly concentrated in games with big spreads. And then the tighter spread matchups have lower totals. Oh well, Big 12 play will be here soon enough.

However, one game does fit this bill. And it's the Backyard Brawl, brother. 

West Virginia hosts Pitt as a 7.5-point home underdog. The 'Neers are coming off an embarrassing defeat at Ohio last week, which had an injury added to it with Jaheim White (leg) being lost for the year. This may be more gambling analysis than anything, but it's interesting that West Virginia is somewhat at rock bottom in terms of perception, but is only a touchdown 'dog. That at least implies that Mountaineers could be viable plays, especially opposite your Pitt plays in a stack.

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Beware the Lookahead

There are some expected blowouts on this slate as we near the end of non-conference play for most of these teams. The marquee non-con games are largely out of the way and a lot of this week is tuneups. 

I mean, there are some truly strange games here. Iowa State travels to Jonesboro to face Arkansas State (I've been doing this job so long, I didn't have to look up where Arkansas State is located). Oklahoma goes to Temple for some reason before starting SEC play against Auburn. Michigan draws Central Michigan before heading to Nebraska next week.

On top of that, there are a couple of conference games that feel like non-con games. Oregon and USC head to Northwestern and Purdue, respectively. Crossing multiple time zones to play an 11 AM local game can weigh down an offense.

All of this is to say that some of the most talented teams on this slate are at least at some risk of underwhelming this week. 

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Quarterback

This seems like a good week to save at quarterback and load up elsewhere. There are several bargain options with equal upside to the primo guys like Arch Manning ($9,500) or John Mateer ($9,400). Jayden Maiava ($8,900) and Dante Moore ($8,000) both pilot offenses with top-five implied totals on this slate, but they're also massive favorites with big conference games on deck for next week. 

Here's where I'm looking if I'm fading the big dogs this week.

Rocco Becht, Iowa State ($7,500) at Arkansas State

This is a play from one of the aforementioned funky games on this slate. That said, Iowa State may project the best among the teams in such setups. At least, relatively speaking. The 'Clones are 21-point favorites and have a bye on the other side of this game. Their implied team total sits at 38.25, which is the fourth-highest on the board.

Becht projects great here, especially relative to cost. Getting to face Arkansas State's defense a week after facing Iowa's is going to feel like a massive weight lifted off of Becht's shoulders. Arkansas State got carved up by Taylen Green, which is forgivable, but it also gave up 272 yards and two touchdowns to Southeast Missouri State's Jax Leatherwood in the opener. 

We're still sorting out the target distribution and stacking options after Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel vacated such a huge share from last season. Benjamin Brahmer ($3,800) might be an essential pairing option if you're rolling with Becht, though. 13 catches for 106 yards and three scores on 15 targets is #good, especially for a player under $4K.

Behren Morton, Texas Tech ($7,300) vs Oregon State

The Red Raiders have an implied total of 43.0 and have a Power 4.5 program coming to town in Oregon State. Now, Texas Tech has only thrown it at a 48% clip thus far, but just as we must take their defensive metrics with a grain of salt, so too must we question that pass rate. Texas Tech is a pass-first offense in its DNA especially after the Joyner injury in fall camp.

Oregon State is the first semblance of a test for Texas Tech, which has pummeled Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Kent State in its first two games. A certain quarterback, soon to be mentioned, will push Texas Tech in this spot and keep the Red Raiders' offense in attack mode. 

Morton has compiled 24.0 and 22.7 DK points his two games, throwing for seven touchdowns on 44 total attempts. We can expect him to play longer Saturday than he did in those other outings, which helps put the 300-yard bonus in play. And, if Texas Tech really does just crush Oregon State, Morton has shown that he can pile up numbers even on limited pass attempts.

Maalik Murphy, Oregon State ($5,000) at Texas Tech

Any starting quarterback at $5K should at least catch your eye. You're getting a player who should return at least 18-20 points while getting major lineup flexibility elsewhere. Murphy is overqualified to be labeled here in my opinion, too. 

Murphy was great as Duke's starter last year and was kind of unceremoniously shown the door when they brought in Derrian Mensah. Oh well, it works out for Murphy and Oregon State now. Murphy has dropped back at least 33 times in each game thus far and is coming off a monstrous 371-yard, four-touchdown outing against Fresno State. 

Now, going to Lubbock will be a tougher test, but let's not fall over ourselves thinking Texas Tech is suddenly elite. Yes, the raw numbers look good thanks to the inferior competition. Metrics like SP+ that account for such things have Texas Tech as a more middling unit (47th in FBS).

Lastly, game flow. Oregon State is already showing to be very pass-happy with a 58.0 percent pass play rate. Add in the very real possibility that they'll be playing from behind and we could see Murphy go for 40+ attempts yet again. For $5K? Yep, I'm in. 

Bryce Underwood, Michigan ($5,700) vs Central Michigan

This is a good buy-back spot for Michigan's passing game. Last week's humbling night in Norman is behind the Wolverines, and now they get a tune-up before heading to Lincoln next weekend.

Michigan has had a balanced offense thus far (46.2% pass play rate) and carries a healthy 35.0 implied total. Underwood should have a much easier time solving the Chips' defense. Michigan likely wants Underwood to get his confidence back before the start of conference play. At $5,700, I'm willing to bet that he will get things back on track. 

Running Back

Running back is always a spot where I'm comfortable paying up for the big dawgs. This week, we have some great options at the top of the board along with a couple value plays that have populated due to some key injuries.

Justice Haynes, Michigan ($7,400) vs Central Michigan

Haynes has straight up been one of the best backs in college football through two weeks with 35 carries for 284 yards and four touchdowns. He has claim to 55 percent of Michigan's rushes so far. He can absolutely return value even with a relatively light workload this week. Central Michigan has decent metrics vs the run so far but hasn't seen a run game like this. Haynes can get us where we need to go on 12-15 carries.

For what it's worth, Jordan Marshall's $6,100 salary will keep his roster % near zero. It's an awful deal for someone with 20 carries for 57 yards. That being said, Marshall might get a lot of cracks at this defense when Michigan pulls away. Something to file away if you're looking for an RB or flex play near $6K.

CJ Baxter, Texas ($7,500) vs UTEP

Quintrevion Wisner being listed as doubtful will likely steer plenty of folks in Baxter's direction, and for good reason. Baxter has led the backfield thus far with 23 carries for 104 yards while reeling in all seven of his targets for 22 yards. 

Even with a blowout script like last week, Texas' depth options such as Jerrick Gibson ($3,400) and Christian Clark ($3,000) have only combined for 14 carries. Baxter should get plenty of chances Saturday against UTEP. 

With Texas checking in as the biggest favorites with the biggest implied total (46), it wouldn't be surprising to see Gibson and Clark get some run. I'd lean Gibson if I were going that route due to seniority and slightly better early results. 

Desmond Reid, Pittsburgh ($8,500) at West Virginia

$8,500 isn't that bad for the best running back on a slate like this. Reid is absolutely worthy of that title even if he hasn't had the monster game just yet. He was Mr. Everything in the Pitt offense last year with 184 carries and 52 receptions. Pitt has clearly been saving him through the soft part of the schedule vs. Central Michigan and Robert Morris. This week, I think it's time we see Reid get unleashed.

West Virginia gave up nearly 200 rushing yards to Ohio last week, albeit on 48 attempts. Still, Pitt poses a whole different problem than the Bobcats. Plus, Reid showed last year he can do a ton of damage as a pass-catcher, which really boosts his projections on DraftKings. 

GPP Considerations

• Jordan Marshall, Michigan ($6,100): Run-heavy game script vs inferior opponent. Michigan will likely turn to Marshall once Haynes gets enough work.
• Clay Ash, West Virginia ($3,400): Possibly a popular bargain bin play with the role vs. salary differential following White's season-ending injury. The floor is very low against this Pitt defense but Ash could get to double-digit points if he has the same involvement in the passing game that he did against Ohio (4/5/20).
• Dylan Lee, Iowa State ($3,000): Risky play with Carson Hansen and Abu Sama expected to handle the bulk of the work. However, both have been mediocre thus far. If we get a blowout situation, Lee could be the guy in mop-up duty like he was against South Dakota.
• Christian Clark ($3,000) and Jerrick Gibson ($3,400), Texas: Blowout script, Texas probably won't need to ride its starters for all four quarters to get to the expected 45 points. With Wisner dinged up and Baxter coming off a serious injury of his own last year, these two should get to close this one out.
• Jaydn Ott  ($7,100), Oklahoma: He has done less than nothing so far at Oklahoma. My faith is starting to wane. I've got one more in me, though. This is the spot to get him going if you're Oklahoma. If not now, when? 

Wide Receiver

Here's this week's target cheat sheet. I filtered it to receivers on this slate with at least an 18% team target share who also average at least 9.0 yards per target. Those are fairly arbitrary thresholds, but they still tend to paint a good picture of who is A.) Getting Volume and B.) Maximizing It.

Trent Walker, Oregon State ($5,300) at Texas Tech

Walker is a strong play on his own and an excellent way to pair up with Maalik Murphy or have a secondary piece to a Texas Tech stack. He made the cut on the target cheat sheet with a 23 percent target share and a 12.4 YPT figure. 

Oregon State is going to be throwing it a ton Saturday, and Walker is at the front of the line for targets. $5,300 for a player with this role in this offense in PPR scoring is a great value. 

If you want to get more exposure to the Oregon State pass game, Taz Reddicks is coming off a huge game (11/158) and is just $3,700.

Donaven McCulley, Michigan ($4,400) vs Central Michigan

If you're interested in playing Underwood, McCulley stands out as a good pairing option. He paces the team in target share (25.5%) with 14 opportunities thus far. He has only caught seven (not great), though those have gone for 122 yards (solid). 

Central Michigan has coughed up 324 passing yards per game against San Jose State and Pitt. This is a great spot for Michigan's passing game to get in gear before Big 10 play begins.

It's hard to expect a high target volume day from McCulley with Michigan as such heavy favorites, but he should be first in line for opportunities in a soft matchup. A few catches for decent yardage and a touchdown does the trick here at $4,400.

Makai Lemon, USC ($6,700) at Purdue

You want to talk about maxed-out target share and efficiency, you want to talk about Lemon. Through two games, Lemon carries a 25 percent target share with a 17.7 yards per target figure. He has caught 11 of 14 passes for 248 yards and two scores. 

I know I mentioned some concern about USC going full nuclear in West Lafayette on Saturday, but Lemon should be insulated. He has too solid of a role and is simply to explosive to be held fully in check here. 

I think if he was in the $7,200 range I'd have to think a little bit harder about playing him, but $6,700 is a nice deal for a player with this kind of ceiling. Purdue's secondary is going to get whiplash seeing the Lemon-Maiava duo after opening the season against Ball State and Southern Illinois. 

Cam Vaughn, West Virginia ($4,600) vs Pittsburgh

Get in, we're going bargain hunting. Now, West Virginia throws it at a below-average rate (38.6%) but there's a concentrated target distribution. Vaughn lays claim to the top share (26%) and has been efficient with a 13.0 YPT figure. We can't expect a ton of volume necessarily, but it feels like there's a six-target floor with upwards of a nine-target ceiling depending on the game flow. 

Jaden Bray (18% share) being out likely pushes even more volume in Vaughn's direction. No other Mountaineer pass catcher seems to have Marchiol's trust yet, as Grayson Barnes (12%) is the only other one with a share over 10%.

GPP Targets

Benjamin Brahmer, Iowa State ($3,800): Top target for Iowa State through three games (15 Tgt), has 13 grabs for 106 and three scores. Confusingly priced fifth among Iowa State pass-catchers. Dominic Overby is also catching my eye at $4,600. 

Ryan Williams, Alabama ($8,300): I wonder if people are jumping ship way too soon. The roster % could be light given that he is the priciest WR on the board. I'm not sure Wisconsin can cover him. They sure couldn't last year. Germie Bernard ($7,000) is also a strong play in this one.

Reggie Virgil ($5,400) and Coy Eakin ($6,400), Texas Tech: Tech is going to light up the scoreboard this week. Expect this to be TTU's highest passing volume game to date. Eakin and Virgil have high target floors and have been explosive thus far.