The mid-majors once again get to hog the spotlight on Thursday's college hoops betting slate, as all the power conference teams have the night off. Nonetheless, we still have many interesting opportunities to consider. Here are my predictions for a trio of games Thursday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Memphis 
at South Florida 
The Tigers' defense looks decent at first glance, ranking 42nd in adjusted efficiency, although it has a couple of severe issues that we can't overlook, especially in this matchup. Memphis' defense ranks among the bottom-40 teams nationally in both defensive rebounding percentage and free-throw attempt rate allowed, two areas where South Florida's offense thrives.
The Bulls have a respectable offensive attack, powered largely by their ability to generate second-chance opportunities and get to the charity stripe. They rank 12th in offensive rebounding percentage nationally and 33rd in free-throw attempt rate, which is the last thing Memphis wants to see on its scouting report.
Memphis needs its defense in top form at all times because it's unreliable at scoring. The Tigers' offense ranks in the bottom-200 teams in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage, free-throw attempt rate, three-point field goal percentage (32 percent), and two-point field goal percentage (50 percent). They are also among the worst power conference teams at committing turnovers (336th), including a league-worst turnover rate during the AAC conference season.
It's also worth noting that it's not unusual for Memphis to get blown out on the road. During the conference season alone, the Tigers have lost five of seven road games by at least seven points.
For these reasons, I'm running with the Bulls on Thursday.
College Basketball Best Bet: South Florida -8.5
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CSUN at UC Santa Barbara
The Matadors are on a roll, riding a season-best five-game win streak. The key to their recent success has been a surging offensive attack. Since the conference season began, CSUN's offense ranks second among Big West teams in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and turnover percentage. It's also ranked among the top four teams in offensive rebounding, three-point and two-point field goal percentages, having made 36 percent and 54 percent against conference foes, respectively.
UC Santa Barbara's defense, meanwhile, hasn't been nearly as sharp. In the same span, the Gauchos' defense ranks among the bottom four Big West teams in efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, free-throw attempt rate allowed, and two-point and three-point field goal percentages allowed, giving up 36 percent and 55 percent, respectively.
When playing in the other direction, UCSB is at its best, boasting the strongest offensive attack in the conference. The Gauchos' offense holds the highest adjusted efficiency rating among Big West teams, and it has the highest rating during league play, making it a tough unit to defend against.
That said, the Matadors have proven they're more than capable of getting the job done. CSUN's defense during league play ranks among the top-four teams in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnover percentage and rebounding rate, giving us an all-around solid unit.
These teams previously clashed in early-January, with CSUN hosting and winning 74-65. Thursday's matchup will likely be a tighter contest, but my money's on CSUN to once again put up a fight, if not win straight up. I'm taking the Matadors in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: CSUN +3.5
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UC Davis 
at Cal State Fullerton
Cal State Fullerton's offense is arguably the biggest liability in this game, having played at a below-average level largely because its shooting percentages are similarly subpar. The Titans have made just 33 percent of three-pointers and 51 percent of two-pointers, both ranking outside the top-200 teams, yielding an effective field goal percentage that naturally ranks outside the top-200 teams. They're also terrible on the offensive glass, posting a rebounding rate that ranks in the bottom-30 teams nationally.
In contrast, UC Davis' defense holds the best adjusted efficiency rating among all four team components in this matchup, ranking 134th while also taking the ball away at an outstanding clip, ranking 32nd in turnover rate.
At the other end of the court, much like their offense, the Titans again have poor marks in shooting categories and are overly reliant on takeaways for getting stops. Cal State Fullerton is allowing opponents to make 58 percent of two-point attempts (344th) and 35 percent of three-point attempts, yielding an effective field goal percentage allowed that ranks 336th.
This is welcome news for the Aggies, as they have relatively high shooting numbers. They are making 52 percent of shots inside the arc (179th) and 36 percent of three-pointers, giving them an effective field goal percentage that ranks 126th. For good measure, it's worth noting they also tend to draw contact near the basket, 80th in free-throw attempt rate, while converting a high percentage of foul shots, 75 percent to be exact (85th).
Looking at the bottom line, UC Davis ranks higher than Cal State Fullerton in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Maybe the home crowd provides a spark, but I'm betting the better team will come out on top when all the dust settles. I'm going with the Aggies in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: UC Davis +1.5
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Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- South Florida -8.5
- CSUN +3.5
- UC Davis +1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
