Is This the Year the Big Ten Wins the NCAA Tournament? A 2026 Bracketology Breakdown
Is this the year for the Big Ten? The conference hasn't won an NCAA Tournament championship since Michigan State cut down the nets in 2000. There have been numerous opportunities and Final Four appearances, most recently when Purdue lost to UConn in the 2024 national title game. Still, no one has been able to get over the final hurdle.
This season may finally be different. The Big Ten is projected to send anywhere from nine to 11 teams to March Madness, with multiple programs tracking toward the top four seed lines in the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket.
For a live, updated look at where these teams currently sit, check out our full 2026 NCAA Tournament bracketology on RotoWire.
The Big Ten's Championship Drought Since 2000
Big Ten basketball has consistently produced Final Four teams over the past two decades, but the championship drought remains.
Since Michigan State won it in 2000, Big Ten teams have made the Final Four 15 times. In comparison, the ACC has made it 19 times, the Big East 15, SEC at 13, and the Big 12 is at 13.
The Big Ten has consistently made the title game, as well, reaching the final game eight times since 2000. The ACC (11), Big East (8), Big 12 (7) and SEC (5) have all won multiple titles despite having a similar number of championship game appearances.
Winning the title is another thing. The ACC and Big East both have eight championships since 2000, while the SEC (4) and Big 12 (3) are also well above the Big Ten's zero. It can be debated why this has been the case, but no matter the reason, it hasn't happened... yet.
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How Many Big Ten Teams Are Positioned to Make a Run in 2026?
You can argue there are six Big Ten teams that have a shot to make the Final Four. With five teams expected to be in the top four seed lines and another that has beaten two of those teams on the road, it'd be a surprise if there wasn't at least one Big Ten team in the Final Four.
Michigan: NET 1, 25-1 Overall
Michigan is the logical starting point to break this decades-long trend. The Wolverines sit atop most rankings and metrics, as they're winning most games by double-digits. In their lone loss, Wisconsin needed 15 threes at a 45-percent clip to win.
The Wolverines are the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament at +425. They have size, shooting and depth, all traits commonly found in national championship teams.
Illinois: NET 4, 22-5 Overall
Illinois got starting guard Kylan Boswell back from a multi-week injury absence recently, though the team didn't really fall off while he was gone. Keaton Wagler went to another level and put himself into the top-five conversation in the upcoming NBA Draft.
The Fighting Illini have size and shooting, but their defense isn't quite at the same level as Michigan's. That's been this team's Achilles' heel in recent seasons, but with a healthy Boswell and lengthy team, their defense could turn into a strength in March en route to a Final Four.
Purdue: NET 8, 21-5 Overall
The Boilermakers were a heavy favorite entering the season, but things haven't fully clicked for them, and three home losses highlight that. Led by Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn, they have known products that almost stole a win against Houston in the Sweet 16 last season.
To get to that next level, the players around them need to do more, namely sharpshooter Fletcher Loyer. If Purdue's best players are playing at their peak, this team could make a deep run.
Michigan State: NET 12, 21-5 Overall
The Spartans probably don't have enough to go all the way. Seen in losses against Duke and Michigan, they have enough to stay competitive and go blow-to-blow with the top teams, but they lack consistent shooting and consistent offensive production. Similar to last season's team that made the Elite 8 and lost to Auburn, they don't have the extra layer needed to win a title.
Nebraska: NET 11, 22-4 Overall
Nebraska is arguably the least likely to make a run since it's never won an NCAA tournament game. It's hard to think going from zero to six wins in one tournament is going to happen. It's been a nice season for the Cornhuskers, but reaching the Sweet 16 would probably be considered a success by most around the program.
Iowa: NET 25, 19-7 Overall
Indiana: NET 32, 17-9 Overall
Wisconsin: NET 35, 18-8 Overall
These teams don't really fit on this list since they're outside the NET top 20 and all seemingly have massive flaws
Wisconsin may have the most upside of the bunch already with wins at Michigan and Illinois, as well as a 19-point drubbing of Michigan State. With Nick Boyd and John Blackwell at the helm, a run in March Madness isn't out of the question. If those guys get hot and fall into the 6- or 7-seed range, upsetting a 2- or 3-seed wouldn't be surprising. From there, anything is possible.
Neither Iowa nor Indiana has really flashed that same kind of upside despite having better metrics. Iowa is 3-5 in Quad 1 games with its best win coming against Nebraska at home. Indiana is 2-8 in Quad 1 games with its best win being home against Purdue.
Does the Big Ten Have a True NCAA Tournament Title Favorite?
Going by the oddsmakers, this season may be the Big Ten's best shot at winning a title in 25 years. As of mid-February, Michigan is the favorite to win it all at +425, but Illinois (+1400), Purdue (+2000), Nebraska (+3500) and Michigan State (+4500) are all considered top-15 contenders.
Michigan's KenPom rating towers above the rest, and with a few more double-digit wins, it could approach one of the best marks of the modern era.
Championship-level teams are usually defined as being elite at both ends of the court. At KenPom, Michigan is a top-five team in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency. Illinois rates as having the best offense in the country, while Purdue is just behind them in addition to having a top-20 defense.
While not as well-rounded, Michigan State and Nebraska both have top-10 defenses. Conversely, Wisconsin has a top-20 offense.
The numbers support the Big Ten getting one if not two teams into the Final Four this season.
The Big Ten's depth is undeniable, but championships are usually won by one or two elite teams, not by conferences. If Michigan holds a 1-seed, the drought narrative will grow louder. Given how the Wolverines have played this season, it will likely take a rare performance to defeat them before the Final Four.
If Illinois or Purdue catches the right draw, both could realistically reach at least the Elite 8.
For a live, updated look at how these teams are currently projected, along with full seed-by-seed breakdowns, check out RotoWire's complete 2026 NCAA Tournament bracketology.
Check out the RotoWire CBB betting section for a complete list of the latest college basketball odds across multiple sportsbooks.
