Due to the NBA Cup Finals earlier in the week, we have an unusually large 12-game slate tonight. The Friday-like ledger gives us no shortage of options to work with even when factoring in a significant number of big-name injuries, and it also affords us a host of potentially rewarding game environments.
Slate Overview
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Listed spreads/totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of Thursday, Dec. 18 @ 12:00 p.m. EST:
Atlanta Hawks (-5.5) at Charlotte Hornets (O/U: 238.5)
New York Knicks (-4.5) at Indiana Pacers (O/U: 225.5)
Miami Heat (-7.5) at Brooklyn Nets (O/U: 228.5)
Washington Wizards at San Antonio Spurs (-15) (O/U: 240.5)
Toronto Raptors (-5) at Milwaukee Bucks (O/U: 219.5)
Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-17.5) (O/U: 225.5)
Houston Rockets (-9.5) at New Orleans Pelicans (O/U: 233.5)
Detroit Pistons (-7.5) at Dallas Mavericks (O/U: 228.5)
Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets (-6.5) (O/U: 236.5)
Golden State Warriors (-1.5) at Phoenix Suns (O/U: 231.5)
Los Angeles Lakers (-8) at Utah Jazz (O/U: 243.5)
Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers (-9) (O/U: 237.5)
As would be expected for a slate of this size, there's a bit of everything when it comes to the betting lines, with one notable and welcome exception – an almost complete absence of projected blowouts. The Clippers-Thunder clash is the one outlier in that regard, but otherwise, we have plenty of expected competitive game environments and half the games on the ledger have projected totals north of 231 points.
Injury Situations to Monitor
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James Harden, LAC (calf): OUT
In Harden's absence, Kawhi Leonard should see even more usage than usual, while Bogdan Bogdanovic could draw a spot start.
Austin Reaves, LAL (calf): OUT
In Reaves' absence, Marcus Smart and Gabe Vincent could be big beneficiaries, while Luka Doncic and LeBron James will see even more usage than usual.
Lauri Markkanen, UTA (groin): QUESTIONABLE
If Markkanen can't play, major usage bumps will be in store for Keyonte George and Brice Sensabaugh, among others, and Taylor Hendricks could draw a spot start.
Trae Young, ATL (knee): QUESTIONABLE
If Young remains out Thursday, Jalen Johnson will continue to shoulder the heaviest load for the Hawks while Nickeil Alexander-Walker will remain in the starting five.
Anthony Davis, DAL (calf): QUESTIONABLE
If Davis can't suit up, the rest of the starting five will see a nice usage bump and Naji Marshall will likely draw a start at power forward.
Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK (knee): QUESTIONABLE
If Towns is sidelined, Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby will also benefit from more opportunity, while Mitchell Robinson will be due for a spot start.
LaMelo Ball, CHA (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
If Ball can't return Thursday, KJ Simpson and Sion James may share point-guard minutes, while Miles Bridges, Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel should also see more usage.
Other notable injuries:
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (calf): OUT
Domantas Sabonis, SAC (knee): OUT
Tyler Herro, MIA (toe): OUT
Franz Wagner, ORL (ankle): OUT
Jalen Suggs, ORL (hip): OUT
Deandre Ayton, LAL (elbow): OUT
Isaiah Hartenstein, OKC (rest): OUT
Jrue Holiday, POR (calf): OUT
Kristaps Porzingis, ATL (illness): OUT
RJ Barrett, TOR (knee): OUT
OG Anunoby, NYK (knee): QUESTIONABLE
Josh Hart, NYK (abdomen): QUESTIONABLE
Elite Players
We have eight players with a five-figure salaries that have a chance to play on Thursday's slate: Nikola Jokic ($12,900), Luka Doncic ($12,500), Victor Wembanyama ($12,300), Anthony Davis ($10,900), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,800), Cade Cunningham ($10,400), Jalen Johnson ($10,300) and Alperen Sengun ($10,100).
Jokic has scored over 52 FD points in six straight and his matchup against the Magic figures to be both high-scoring and competitive.
Doncic is averaging 60.2 FD points per game for the season and will be even more involved than usual Thursday thanks to Austin Reaves' absence.
Wembanyama scored 39.8 FD points in just 20 minutes during his return to action Saturday and then bumped up to 25 minutes in the NBA Cup Final on Tuesday, so he should be due for another increase Thursday and has a premium matchup against the Wizards.
If Davis is cleared to play, he'll look to score over 50 FD points for the third straight game.
SGA carries the same 50-plus FD-point ceiling as usual, but there is significant blowout risk in his game with the Thunder favored by 17.5 points.
Cunningham has been over 50 FD points in two of his last four games and draws a solid matchup against the Mavericks.
Johnson has scored over 50 FD points in three of his last four games, but Trae Young could be returning to the floor Thursday, at least in a limited capacity.
Sengun has scored between 53.5 and 79.6 FD points in his last four games, and he draws an excellent positional matchup against the Pelicans.
Expected Chalk
Other likely chalk plays include:
Deni Avdija, POR ($9,500)
Avdija has scored over 42 FD points in four of the last five games, which should keep him highly rostered Thursday.
Jalen Brunson, NYK ($9,200)
Brunson could be taking the floor without Karl-Anthony Towns and has flashed a ceiling north of 50 FD points on numerous occasions, factors that should make him very popular Thursday.
Scottie Barnes, TOR ($9,100)
Barnes has scored 47.2 points or more in four of the last six games, so he should remain highly rostered at his salary.
Devin Booker, PHO ($9,000)
Booker scored 49.7 FD points in his return from a three-game absence against the Lakers on Sunday, and he could be looked into another high-scoring duel against Stephen Curry on Thursday.
Stephen Curry, GSW ($9,000)
Curry has scored 50.5 and 63.6 FD points in his first two games back from a quad injury, putting him in play on plenty of rosters at his salary.
Key Values
Mark Williams, PHO vs. GSW ($6,100)
Williams has developed into a steady source of scoring and rebounds down low for the Suns, averaging 30.4 FD point per game for the season and eclipsing 30 FD points in 12 of 22 games. One of his best performances of the season came against the Warriors, as he posted 42.2 FD points versus Golden State on Nov. 4 on the strength of a 16-point, 16-rebound double-double. The Dubs continue to be vulnerable to centers as well, as they'll check into Thursday's matchup allowing 55.8 FD points per game to the position in the last 15 games, along with the third-most rebounds (16.2) to the position in that span.
Davion Mitchell, MIA at BKN ($5,600)
Mitchell continues to consistently churn out solid across-the-stat-sheet production for the Heat, most recently providing 27.2 FD points per contest over his last 15 games via 10.3 points, 7.7 assists, 2.7 rebounds and 1.1 steals per contest. Mitchell has shot an impressive 51.7 percent in that span as well, including 40.0 percent from behind the arc. Miami will be without Tyler Herro on Thursday as well, as scenario where Mitchell averages 32.8 FD points per 36 minutes. The Nets could facilitate more of the same, considering they allow 49.7 percent shooting at home, along with the third-most assists (29.5) per contest in that split.
Robert Williams, POR vs. SAC ($5,200)
Williams has remained relatively healthy this season and outpaced his current salary on numerous occasions, delivering 22.5 FD points or more in seven of 16 games. The big man is always a candidate to supplement his production heavily with rebounds and blocks, and he's in a very good spot on paper all the way around Thursday. The Kings are surrendering an NBA-high 65.3 FD points per game to centers in the last 15 games, and they're yielding a robust 55.3 rebounds and 5.2 blocks per contest on the road. Even with the potential for minutes in the low 20s or slightly fewer, Williams could be teed up to deliver one of his higher-percentile performances while saving you plenty of salary.
ALSO CONSIDER: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, ATL at CHA ($6,100) if Trae Young is out
