A split schedule Wednesday leaves us with two decent-sized slates, the first of which kicks off at 12:40 pm ET and includes five games. The second, which will be our focus, kicks off at 7:05 pm and has eight matchups to work with.
Pitchers
It's an interesting day for the pitcher pool, because there are a lot of quality options to consider, though nearly all of them have some significant deficiencies in their skills profile. Wednesday is a day to heavily consider price, matchup and ballpark when picking pitchers to start.
That combination leads us to Kevin Gausman ($9,000) as the highest-priced pitcher to recommend. He's had some recent poor starts for fantasy purposes, but he's also topped 27 DraftKings points in half of his last eight starts. That type of performance would be a differentiator on this slate. A matchup against the Rays in Tampa has the potential to be tricky, but everything else works in Gausman's favor.
Jesus Luzardo ($8,500) draws a tough matchup against the Dodgers, but that seems to be considered in his cost. He's delivered a minimum of 24.1 DK points in his last three starts, yet is $500 cheaper than his lowest cost in that span. He's a high risk pitcher every time he takes the mound, and that's particularly true against the Dodgers.
Cole Ragans ($8,000) is a risky option considering he hasn't made a big-league start since mid-May. That could mean he's on a pitch count, though his cost is $2,300 cheaper than its peak point this season and $1,000 less than when he went on the injured list. Seattle also has a 24.8 percent strikeout rate against southpaws this season.
We'll talk more about Luis Gil ($7,300) shortly, and there are arguments to be made both for and against him. He continues to walk a ton of batters while also giving up a decent amount of hard contact. Yet, he's put up 17.85 DK points or more in three of his last four starts. Regression is coming, but the Twins may not be the team to deliver it.
Ryan Weathers ($6,200) is a very risky punt option. He had a strong return from the injured list (20.25 DK points), but he's headed into Coors Field on Wednesday night.
Top Hitters
Bryce Miler has done a bit better limiting runs in five starts since returning from the injured list but he's still surrendered a whopping nine home runs in 32 innings of work – good for a 3.0 HR/9. The Royals are a team to target for at least a hitter or two, with Bobby Witt ($5,800) and Vinnie Pasquantino ($4,400) both being relatively obvious choices.
The Rangers-Astros could be a surprising game to give us some offense tonight, as Cristian Javier has started to fade after a strong return from Tommy John surgery. He's given up four earned runs in each of his last two starts (10.1 innings combined) while allowing 16 baserunners. The Rangers don't have a ton of star bats to consider right now, but Adolis Garcia ($4,200) is still capable of providing splash performances.
Value Bats
Luis Gil is the ultimate "can't keep getting away with it" pitcher. He has a 15.3 BB percentage while allowing only 0.44 HR/9 despite surrendering a 9.5 percent barrel rate. Gil might be able to ride his current streak of luck through the regular season, but he's a pitcher to target with a mini stack of cheap Twins. Austin Martin ($3,700) and Royce Lewis ($3,600) both occupy key spots in the lineup and provide a nice on-base/power profile combo that works well as a pair.
As noted, it's a fairly flat day in the pitching pool, with a lot of pitchers with similar skill sets taking the mound. That can make it difficult to differentiate pitchers to target. One surprising name that has struggled with the long ball lately is Jacob deGrom. He has given up multiple home runs in three of his nine starts since the All-Star break and has a 1.61 HR/9 in his last five outings. Jesus Sanchez ($3,500) is a cheap lefty bat to consider, as deGrom has also allowed 1.42 HR/9 to left-handed hitters this season.
Stacks to Consider
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies (McCade Brown): Otto Lopez ($4,400), Jakob Marsee ($5,400), Agustin Ramirez ($4,800)
The Marlins aren't typically a team we focus on with stacks, but their circumstances lay out very well Wednesday night. They get the Coors Field bump and draw a matchup against Brown, who has made four starts this season. Two have come at home, during which he's given up nine earned runs across 5.2 innings. That's a small sample, but his 10:9 K:BB doesn't suggest he's just running into bad luck. The Marlins also have the 11th-best wOBA across the last 14 days.
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets (David Peterson): Fernando Tatis ($5,500), Manny Machado ($5,300), Jackson Merrill ($4,000)
Things have changed quickly for Peterson, who looked to be a breakout pitcher for most of the summer. However, in his last five starts, he has a 1.58 WHIP and 6.23 ERA. A .405 BABIP has a lot to do with those results, but he's giving up more contact and still walks too many batters. That's a good combination of skill deficiencies to stack against, and the Padres are getting back on track at the plate (.322 wOBA, .187 ISO in the last 14 days).
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