A seven game main slate awaits Saturday afternoon at FanDuel, with all games going off between 4:05 and 4:10 p.m. EDT. We've got three arms priced in five-figures, two of which square off against each other, with three more priced at $9,300 or higher, giving us ample high end options.
The Mets (-200) are the slate's biggest favorite, followed by the Brewers (-176) and Guardians (-174). Astros - Red Sox gives us our highest run total at 9.5, while three games sit at 7.5 or lower, so unlike last night where it required big scoring to cash, this slate figures to be challenging offensively. Our weather tracker isn't up early Saturday, so be sure to check before lineups to see if we have any rain concerns or wind boosts.
Pitching
Brandon Woodruff, MIL vs. WSH ($10,200): This seems like the obvious pay down of the pay up options, so feel free to use Zack Wheeler ($10,600) or Tarik Skubal ($10,800) if your budget allows for lower roster percentages. Woodruff has three quality starts in four outings, striking out 29 across 22.1 innings. Washington isn't huge on swing-and-miss at 20.0 percent, but are below average with a 99 wRC+ against righties. I wouldn't envision a 4x return, but 3x looks likely, making for a stable cash lineup option.
Tanner Bibee, CLE vs. MIN ($8,600): We're going to target arms against the Twins for the next two months, it's that simple. Byron Buxton is on the IL, they traded Carlos Correa and have mailed it in, striking out 14 times Friday while collecting just six hits. Bibee has just one quality start in his last five outings, but has still flirted with a 4x return in each of his last three thanks to earning wins. Even when fully healthy, the Twins have a 98 wRC+ and .312 wOBA against righties. Cleveland is heavily favored, and Minnesota has a 2.8 expected run total. With offense seemingly volatile, Bibee will allow for spending on safer options.
Bailey Ober, MIN at CLE ($8,000): The pay-down choices Saturday are pretty gross, and with Ober coming off the IL, there are certainly pitch count limitations/concerns. But for as much as we want to target against the Twins, Cleveland's offense is statistically worse, posting a 93 wRC+ and .302 wOBA against righties. There's divisional familiarity, and it works in Ober's favor. Current Guardians are a collective 18-for-109 (.165) with a .444 OPS with a 23.2 percent strikeout rate. Given the potential workload limit, I wish Ober was priced a touch lower.
Top Targets
Kai-Wei Teng has limited MLB exposure, and it's anyone's guess how long he'll work Saturday, so targeting splits against him isn't the fallback. But with the Mets having the highest run expectancy on the slate, building around one of their big three makes sense. Pete Alonso ($3,600) broke out of a funk with a homer last night and has a .376 wOBA off righties. Juan Soto ($3,900) leads the Mets with a .394 wOBA, 180 wRC+ and .280 ISO.
The Yankees' Cam Schlittler is allowing a .417 wOBA and .953 OPS to lefties in limited exposure. I don't trust anything in the Marlins lineup, but Kyle Stowers ($3,400) has hit safely in eight of his last nine with three homers.
Bargain Bats
We'd prefer to target lefties against Walker Buehler, but the Astros remain limited in those options. If wanting shares of Houston's lineup, dart throws on cheap power over higher floor options is my preference. Carlos Correa ($2,700) is 2-for-5 off Buehler with a homer, while Christian Walker ($2,800) is just 4-for-25, but two of those left the yard.
Jake Irvin has a 5.06 road ERA (4.59 xFIP) while allowing 2.0 HR/9. Keep rolling Andrew Vaughn ($2,900) until he cools off after homering Friday for the fourth time in six games.
The Mets' Kodai Senga has labored of late, allowing seven runs, eight hits and eight walks over his last eight innings. Willy Adames ($2,800) went hitless Friday, but had nine hits in his previous six games and offers some power potential. Matt Chapman ($3,300) is 3-for-4 of Senga with two homers.
Stack to Consider
Red Sox vs. Colton Gordon (Astros): Alex Bregman ($3,500), Trevor Story ($3,200), Ceddanne Rafaela ($2,900)
With the highest run total, this is the game everyone will target on both sides, so how you manage to do so will likely lead to your Saturday evening outcome. Gordon is allowing 1.9 HR/9, doesn't strike out many (7.8 per nine) and is allowing a .394 wOBA to righties on the road. Bregman is an elite stand alone play if you want a piece and to differentiate elsewhere. He boasts a .438 wOBA and 180 wRC+ against lefties. Story has a below average 87 wRC+ off southpaws, but is white hot with three doubles, two homers and five runs scored in his last three. Rafaela offers a power boost for cheap with a .236 ISO against lefties. It's not a traditional lineup order stack, but with the Red Sox left-handed heavy, perhaps the lineup card gives us more connectivity.
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