Top Picks and Predictions for UFC Perth: Ulberg vs Reyes
The UFC heads to Perth, Australia, for a card stuffed with 14 fights. We'll break down each bout across three platforms, including a relative newcomer in search of his first organizational win, and a giraffe who is ready to do battle. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Alexia Thainara ($9,200)
Loma Lookboonmee hasn't faced many dedicated wrestlers during her UFC tenure, but was dominated on the ground against Lupita Godinez, who notched five takedowns and 7:32 of control time against the Thai specialist in 2021. Thianar is strong for the weight class and crafty on the ground, which should limit avenues to victory for the perennially undersized Lookboonmee.
Michelle Montague ($9,000)
Montague is a wrestler who wants nothing more than to bring the fight to the ground. This doesn't bode well for Luana Carolina, whose upright stance has resulted in opponents scoring at least one takedown in each of her last seven fights. Montague will brawl her way into the pocket initially, which may give Carolina an opportunity, but I don't expect this one to be competitive once it hits the mat.
Cam Rowston ($7,800)
Rowston's significant advantages in height and reach should pay dividends against Andre Petroski, who seems to have slowed down considerably since entering the organization as a chain wrestler in 2021. Rowston was taken down a whopping 10 times in his 2024 Contender Series fight, so eyes will likely be on the favorite, but uninspiring performances for Petroski in recent bouts against Rodolfo Vieira and Edmen Shahbazyan have me leaning towards the aggressive underdog.
Jake Matthews ($9,600)
Matthews made wrestling a priority for the first time in years during his win over Chidi Njokuani, securing a takedown and finding a submission in Round 1. He would be wise to follow a similar script against another lanky opponent in Neil Magny. While Magny is a solid top-position grappler, we have seen him submitted off his back before, and Matthews' jiujitsu is strong enough to get the job done if he finds himself on top.
Charlie Campbell ($7,900)
Tom Nolan is a powerful boxer with quick hands, but the fact that he was taken down twice on five attempts against a 37-year-old Alex Reyes in 2023 doesn't inspire confidence that he will be able to stay on his feet against a much more powerful wrestler in Campbell. As long as he steers clear of a brawl, I expect "The Cannibal" to bank rounds in dominant position on the ground.
Jimmy Crute ($8,900)
Crute's quick finish of Marcin Prachnio didn't do much to assuage fears regarding his gas tank, but the three takedowns he got before locking in the submission did let us know he is back to being a committed grappler. Ivan Erslan has been taken down six times in his two UFC fights, which should give Crute a clear path to victory here.
Jonathan Micallef ($7,800)
Oban Elliott doesn't much resemble the fighter we saw in his debut, as he tends to spend much of the fight with his back to the cage looking for counter shots. This will allow Micallef to blast "The Welsh Gangster" with hard kicks, with the option to go to his wrestling game if necessary.
Jack Jenkins ($9,400)
The fight against Ramon Taveras is Jenkins's to lose, as "The Savage" is keen to let his opponents dictate where actions take place. I expect Jenkins to get rolling with his combination boxing before transitioning to a wrestling attack.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Justin Tafa OVER 22.5 Significant Strikes, Josias Musasa OVER 38.4 Significant Strikes, and Brando Pericic UNDER 19.5 Significant Strikes
Tafa has been a one-round fighter fairly often in his UFC career, but he tends to fight at the speed of his competition. Newcomer Louie Sutherland fights at an incredibly slow pace for a heavyweight and has gone to decision in three of his last four bouts. This gives me confidence that Tafa will be in the cage long enough to eclipse this total.
I'm not confident that Musasa's style will translate to finishes at the highest level, as he tends to throw one strike at a time and looks to capitalize on opponent mistakes. Meanwhile, Colby Thicknesse is a clean striker who has yet to be finished in eight professional fights. While the opportunistic striking of Musasa could threaten the total generally, he should be able to clear it over 15 minutes.
Percic and Elisha Ellison are low-level heavyweights who have never seen the scorecards in 11 combined professional MMA fights. Both men fight erratically and have power, so it stands to reason that this one ends in the first few exchanges.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes Fight Goes to Decision (+300)
It's risky to predict that a light heavyweight fight sees scorecards generally, but both Ulberg and Reyes are natural counter fighters, who like to wait for their opponent to attack before sniping with power. While it has been quite a while since Reyes has seen a third round, I would argue this is largely due to matchups, as fighters like Nikita Krylov and Anthony Smith have never been known for their patience.
Rolando Bedoya Wins via KO/TKO (+400)
Bedoya has come up short in his first three UFC appearances, but he controls distance well and throws a hard jab with the intention of countering when his opponent returns fire. This should set him up well against Jamie Mullarkey, whose recklessly aggressive style has seen him knocked out in three of his last four appearances. On the flip side, Bedoya has never been stopped in 18 professional MMA fights.
Navajo Stirling Wins via KO/TKO (+133)
Stirling has had trouble putting his foot on the gas early in his UFC career, as he seems content to throw one shot at a time, while not showing much initiative to lead the dance. Rodolfo Bellato will solve this problem for him, as the Brazilian applies constant pressure without moving his head. This should lead to a knockout from the young kickboxer, who holds a 78 percent takedown defense rate.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Perth this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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