Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for Noche UFC
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's Noche UFC card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 253-104-1 ~ Dog Picks 38-29-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Diego Lopes +190
Bet of the Week Record: 20-9-1 +2038
DFS Lock of the Week: Reese - 23-5
Fanduel Captain: Reese/Suarez
Diego Lopes (26-7-0) v. Jean Silva (16-2-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 26 wins (10 KO/TKO, 12 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Dynamic grappler with slick submissions and creativity off his back
- Aggressive pace but hittable on the feet and can be controlled standing
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16 wins (12 KO/TKO, 3 submission, 1 decision)
- Explosive striker with knockout power and fast hands
- Still rounding out his ground game, but thrives in high-pressure exchanges
DFS Perspective: Lopes being the underdog here feels like disrespect given the level of opposition he's already battled. His durability and edge on the mat make him live for both a finish and a control-heavy win, especially if Silva can't put him away early. Silva carries real knockout danger, but the value is all on Lopes, who looks primed to pull off the upset and score big for DFS.
UFC Noche Pick: Lopes
Rob Font (22-8-0) v. David Martinez (12-1-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22 wins (9 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 9 decisions)
- High-volume striker with sharp boxing and steady jab
- Durable veteran with experience against the division's elite
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (10 KO/TKO, 2 decisions)
- Aggressive newcomer with finishing ability everywhere
- Still raw defensively and untested against top-tier opposition
DFS Perspective: Font's volume and durability make him a steady scoring option, especially if this turns into a three-round striking affair. Martinez is dangerous early with finishing upside, but this is a big step up in competition. Font's jab and output should carry him over the course of the fight, making him the preferred DFS play, though Martinez is live as a GPP dart if he finds a finish.
UFC Noche Pick: Font
Jared Gordon (21-7-0) v. Rafa Garcia (17-4-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21 wins (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 11 decisions)
- Experienced veteran with steady boxing and output
- Tough and durable, but can be grounded and controlled by strong wrestlers
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17 wins (1 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Pressure wrestler with heavy top control and grit
- Durable and willing to make fights ugly to wear opponents down
DFS Perspective: García is being overlooked here, but has the exact style to steal rounds. His relentless wrestling and ability to rack up control time make him a sneaky underdog play with solid scoring upside. Gordon's pace and toughness keep him live, but García's pressure and grappling give him the tools to pull off the upset.
UFC Noche Pick: Garcia
Kelvin Gastelum (19-10-0) v. Dustin Stoltzfus (16-7-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 19 wins (5 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Experienced striker with fast hands and solid boxing fundamentals
- Durable but inconsistent and undersized at middleweight
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16 wins (3 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Well-rounded fighter with a grappling base
- Lacks fight-ending power but is steady in grinding exchanges
DFS Perspective: Gastelum has the speed and striking edge, and this is a matchup he should win if he stays aggressive. Stoltzfus is durable and can slow things down with grappling, but he lacks the tools to threaten Gastelum consistently. Gastelum is the better DFS side with potential for a finish, though if it goes the distance, his scoring ceiling could be limited.
UFC Noche Pick: Gastelum
Alexander Hernandez (17-8-0) v. Diego Ferreira (19-6-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17 wins (7 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Fast starter with explosive striking and athleticism
- Struggles with consistency and fades when pressured
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19 wins (5 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 7 decisions)
- High-level grappler with slick jiu-jitsu and scrambles
- Durable veteran who applies steady pressure and volume
DFS Perspective: Hernandez is always live for an early finish, but his tendency to fade makes this matchup dangerous. Ferreira's pressure, experience, and grappling edge give him multiple paths to score big if he survives the early storm. Ferreira is the safer DFS play with a strong chance to break Hernandez down late, while Hernandez is a boom-or-bust GPP dart.
UFC Noche Pick: Ferreira
Santiago Luna (6-0-0) v. Quang Le (9-2-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6 wins (2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Well-rounded prospect with finishing ability everywhere
- Aggressive and durable but still untested at the UFC level
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9 wins (2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Compact striker with decent grappling defense
- Lacks elite athleticism but fights with steady pace and toughness
DFS Perspective: Luna appears to be slightly better everywhere—sharper striking, smoother grappling, and more upside. The only concern is his age and inexperience on the big stage, which could leave room for mistakes. Le's toughness could force this into deeper waters, but Luna has the skill edge to get it done. Preferred DFS play is Luna, though caution is warranted given the step up in competition at just 21.
UFC Noche Pick: Luna
Jose Medina (11-5-0) v. Dusko Todorovic (12-6-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 1 decisions)
- Explosive with finishing power on the feet
- Still raw defensively and vulnerable to sustained pressure
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (8 KO/TKO, 3 submission, 1 decisions)
- Volume striker with steady pressure and willingness to trade
- Durable but hittable, often relying on pace to wear opponents down
DFS Perspective: Medina is dangerous early, but if he doesn't land a finish, Todorovic's pace and output give him a strong path to victory. His ability to push volume and extend fights makes him the preferred DFS side, as he can rack up significant points even in a decision. Lean is Todorovic by outworking Medina in a high-paced battle.
UFC Noche Pick: Todorovic
Claudio Puelles (12-4-0) v. Joaquim Silva (13-5-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 12 wins (2 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Dangerous grappler with slick leg locks and submissions
- Limited striking and can be outworked on the feet
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 13 wins (7 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Explosive striker with knockout power and fast combinations
- Aggressive but hittable and can fade if forced to grapple
DFS Perspective: This is a classic striker vs. grappler clash. Puelles needs takedowns to shine, and if he finds them, he has real submission upside. Silva is the more reliable striker with finishing power, but his defensive lapses make him risky. Strong GPP fight with volatility on both sides—Silva is the lean for a KO, while Puelles is the value side if he gets it to the mat.
UFC Noche Pick: Puelles
Tatiana Suarez (10-1-0) v. Amanda Lemos (15-4-1)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10 wins (2 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Elite wrestler with relentless top pressure and chain grappling
- Physically dominant and excels at forcing opponents into bad positions
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 15 wins (8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Explosive striker with real knockout power at strawweight
- Struggles when forced to defend takedowns and controlled on the mat
DFS Perspective: This looks like Suárez's fight to lose. Her wrestling and grappling are levels above, and she should have little issue grounding Lemos repeatedly. Once on top, Suárez has a clear path to a submission finish, making her one of the safest and highest-upside DFS plays on the card. Lemos always has a puncher's chance with her power, but Suárez by submission feels like the most straightforward outcome.
UFC Noche Pick: Suarez
Jesus Aguilar (11-3-0) v. Luis Gurule (10-1-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 62" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (1 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Submission specialist with slick guillotine and opportunistic grappling
- Small for the division but makes up for it with pressure and pace
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7 wins (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 4 decision)
- Aggressive striker with knockout power and quick entries
- Less experienced at this level but dangerous in scrambles
DFS Perspective: Aguilar's grappling-heavy style makes him the safer DFS play, as he can rack up control time and threaten with submissions. Gurule is live early with his striking, but his lack of proven defense against strong wrestlers is a concern. Expect Aguilar to ground this fight and find a submission, making him a strong DFS option with finishing upside.
UFC Noche Pick: Aguilar
Zachary Reese (9-2-0) v. Sedriques Dumas (10-3-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 9 wins (5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Aggressive finisher with length and knockout power
- Strong momentum and thrives in chaotic exchanges
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 910wins (4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Athletic fighter with flashy striking and opportunistic grappling
- Inconsistent performances and vulnerable under pressure
DFS Perspective: Reese is an excellent DFS target here. His kill-or-be-killed style almost guarantees a finish, and his reach and power give him a clear edge in striking exchanges. Dumas can be tricky early, but Reese's aggression and finishing instincts make him the preferred side with massive upside in GPPs. Expect violence, with Reese likely cashing in big.
UFC Noche Pick: Reese
Alessandro Costa (14-4-0) v. Alden Coria (10-3-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (5 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Technical grappler with slick submissions and strong scrambles
- Compact striker who mixes in leg kicks but thrives on the mat
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7 wins (4 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Well-rounded prospect with developing striking and grappling
- Less experienced at this level and untested against UFC competition
DFS Perspective: Costa's grappling advantage and UFC experience make him the safer DFS side. He can rack up takedowns, control time, and submission attempts, giving him a strong floor and ceiling. Coria is an unknown with some finishing potential, but the jump in competition is steep.
UFC Noche Pick: Costa
Alice Pereira (5-0-0) v. Montserrat Rendon (6-1-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 5 wins (3 KO/TKO, 1 Submission, 1 decision)
- Younger sister of Alex Pereira, bringing the same aggressive striking style
- Powerful for the division with sharp kickboxing fundamentals and pressure
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6 wins (6 decisions)
- Durable grinder who relies on clinch work and volume
- Lacks finishing ability, often going the distance in competitive fights
DFS Perspective: All eyes will be on Pereira's debut, and she carries big DFS upside with her power and finishing instincts. Rendon is tough and may try to drag this out, but her lack of stopping power makes her a low-ceiling play. Pereira is the clear DFS target with the tools to deliver a statement knockout in her debut.
UFC Noche Pick: Pereira
Rodrigo Sezinando (8-1-0) v. Daniil Donchenko (11-2-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: N/A – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8 wins (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 1 decision)
- Aggressive finisher with strong striking and opportunistic grappling
- Still raw defensively and can be reckless in exchanges
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: N/A – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (7 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Well-rounded prospect with solid kickboxing fundamentals
- Composed under pressure but untested against higher competition
DFS Perspective: This is a volatile matchup with strong finishing potential on both sides. Sezinando brings more aggression and kill-or-be-killed upside, making him a strong GPP play. Donchenko is the steadier striker with the ability to capitalize on mistakes, but his scoring ceiling depends on dragging this into later rounds.
UFC Noche Pick: Donchenko
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
