This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC Baku
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Baku card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 169-70-1 ~ Dog Picks 26-20-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Myktybek Orolbai 2U - -170
Bet of the Week Record: 11-8-1 +603
DFS Lock of the Week: Myktybek Orolbai - 16-2
Fanduel Captain: Orolbai/Rountree
Jamahal Hill (12-3-0) v. Khalil Rountree (13-6-0)
- Height: 6′4″ – Reach: 79″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 12 wins (7 KO/TKO, 5 decisions)
- Former champ with sharp boxing and big power
- Can mix in grappling if needed, but prefers to stand and trade
Khalil Rountree (High-end GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 6′1″ – Reach: 76″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 14 wins (9 KO/TKO, 5 decisions)
- Devastating striker with brutal kicks and explosive counters
- Always dangerous early with fight-changing power
DFS Perspective: I'm heavily on Rountree to win by knockout in this one. Hill's been cracked recently, and Rountree's raw power and ferocity should be too much if he lands clean. Expect fireworks early, and for this to end before the final bell.
UFC Baku Pick: Rountree
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Rafael Fiziev (12-4-0) v. Ignacio Bahamondes (17-5-0)
Rafael Fiziev (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5′8″ – Reach: 71″ – Stance: Switch
- Record: 12 wins (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions)
- Technical striker with elite Muay Thai, crisp combinations, and dynamic kicks
- Comes off a tough decision loss, but has high fight IQ and adaptability
Ignacio Bahamondes (High-end GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 6′3″ – Reach: 75″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17 wins (11 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Lightning-fast reach with highlight-reel offense, powers up with head kicks and counters
- Coming off three-straight Performance of the Night bonuses, dangerous at range, and durable
DFS Perspective: Fiziev has elite technique and longevity in high-level fights, but Bahamondes has the size, speed and finishing firepower to outpace him. Fiziev's jab could disrupt the forward plod, but Bahamondes thrives when fighters come through his punches. Both are tough, and I expect this goes to the cards, likely a high-action affair, but Bahamondes might catch Fiziev with a big strike late. Leaning toward a decision with Bahamondes' hand raised, but it's a close call.
UFC Baku Pick: Bahamondes
Curtis Blayes (18-5-0) v. Rizvan Kuniev (13-2-1)
Curtis Blaydes (High-end GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 6′4″ – Reach: 80″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18 wins (13 KO/TKO, 5 decisions)
- Elite wrestler with unmatched takedowns and top control in the heavyweights
- Finishing power on the ground and in the clinch, can dominate from bell to bell
- Height: 6′4″ – Reach: 76″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (6 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Strong on his feet with a credible wrestling background, earned Eagle FC HW belt
- Looked solid on the Contender Series, picking up wins in both fights
DFS Perspective: This one's Blaydes' to lose. Kuniev opens tough and heavy, but he'll be tying it up, trying to stop takedowns. Blaydes does that better than anyone; he's a constant grind machine with enough power to finish on his back or build volume. Kuniev's path is wild KO upside early, but if that doesn't hit hard, Blaydes takes over, racks up takedowns, control time, and cages the fight till the decision or late TKO.
UFC Baku Pick: Blaydes
Myktybek Orolbai (13-2-1) v. Tofiq Musayev (22-5-0)
Myktybek Orolbai (Mid-range GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 5′10″ – Reach: 74″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (6 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Wrestler with strong top game and submission instincts
- Durable, paced fighter who grinds out rounds with control and grappling pressure
- Height: 5′9″ – Reach: 69″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22 wins (18 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Devastating knockout artist from the RIZIN Lightweight Grand Prix
- UFC debuting veteran at 35 with massive power, particularly in early rounds
DFS Perspective: Musayev is powerful, but Orolbai's wrestling and ability to chain takedowns should break his rhythm fast. As long as Orolbai avoids a clean shot early, I expect him to stick to Musayev like glue, rack up control time and drain him round by round. I'm not expecting fireworks -- more of a suffocating grind until the final bell.
UFC Baku Pick: Orolbai
Nazim Sadykhov (10-1-1) v. Nikolas Motta (15-5-0)
Nazim Sadykhov (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5′10″ – Reach: 69″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10 wins (7 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 1 decision)
- Finishing fighter with high knockout upside and submission chops
- Strong takedown and control ability paired with solid cardio
- Height: 5′9″ – Reach: 70″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15 wins (10 KO/TKO, 5 decisions)
- Heavy-handed striker who seeks early finishes
- Questionable chin and inconsistent gas tank
DFS Perspective: Motta's heavy hands are dangerous early, but Nazim has the face of a finisher himself and a more rounded tool kit. If Sadykhov controls pace, using takedowns, clinch or smart striking, he's likely to overwhelm Motta over three rounds. Plus, Nazim's durability gives him an edge in a scrap.
UFC Baku Pick: Sadykhov
Muhammadjon Naimov (12-3-0) v. Bogdan Grad (15-2-0)
Muhammadjon Naimov (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5′9″ – Reach: 70″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Strong wrestler with high-level takedown control and top pressure
- Comes with finishing power and solid cardio to grind tempo
- Height: 5′8″ – Reach: 70″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15 wins (9 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Explosive striker with a high-rate KO game and heavy volume
- Connects quickly with over 5.8 significant strikes per minute
DFS Perspective: Grad brings fireworks, but Naimov's wrestling and top control should dominate this matchup. If he gets this to the mat, he'll flood control time while neutralizing Grad's forward pace. Grad needs a knockout opening, but Naimov's durability and grind give him a path to victory round after round.
UFC Baku Pick: Naimov
Seok Hyun Ko (11-2-0) v. Oban Elliott (12-2-0)
Seok Hyun Ko (GPP Dart Throw)
- Height: 5′10″ – Reach: 71″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 11 wins (6 KO/TKO, 5 decisions)
- Strong finishing rate with powerful strikes and clean technique
- Comes off a dominant DWCS debut, confident and sharp in transitions
- Height: 6′0″ – Reach: 72″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 6 decisions)
- UFC rookie with a balanced offense, mixes grappling and striking well
- Excellent timing and power
DFS Perspective: I'm rolling with Ko as the dog here. Elliott has faced better competition, but Ko's a proven finisher stepping into this bigger spotlight with momentum. That DWCS KO showed he can stay composed under pressure. Elliott's grappling is solid, but I like Ko's power and polish to keep this upright and make it a firefight. Big dog play with upside for early damage, potential finish, and points.
UFC Baku Pick: Ko
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Ismael Naurdiev (24-7-0) v. Jun Yong Park (18-6-0)
- Height: 5′10″ – Reach: 74″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 24 wins (12 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Aggressive striker with finishing power and solid scrambles
- Likes to push the pace but can fade if he doesn't get the finish early
- Height: 5′10″ – Reach: 73″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18 wins (5 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 7 decisions)
- One of the most durable and well-rounded middleweights in the UFC
- Strong wrestling, high fight IQ, and can mix striking and grappling seamlessly
DFS Perspective: I'm on Park here. He's faced way better competition, is rock solid everywhere and rarely breaks under pressure. Naurdiev is dangerous early, but if Park weathers that burst, he should take over with steady pressure, smart grappling, and better cardio. Expect him to win rounds, wear Naurdiev out and possibly hunt a late submission.
UFC Baku Pick: Park
Daria Zhelezniakova (9-2-0) v. Melissa Mullins (7-1-0)
- Height: 5′9″ – Reach: 68″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9 wins (5 KO/TKO, 4 decisions)
- Powerful striker with big knockout power and finishing intent
- Limited ground game with submission loss on her record, and susceptible to being out-paced
Melissa Mullins (Mid-range GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 5′7″ – Reach: 68″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7 wins (4 KO/TKO, 3 decisions)
- Well-rounded with heavy hands and durable cardio
- Lives by volume striking and pace control; bounced back strong after her only UFC loss
DFS Perspective: Darya brings power, but Mullins has the skills, heart, and athleticism to eek out a decision. Mullins should be faster, more disciplined, and able to avoid Zheleznyakova's bombs while scoring consistently. Expect her to push the pace, make this grindy, and control the later rounds. Great DFS angle with output and decision potential, plus the bonus of consistent performance.
UFC Baku Pick: Mullins
Irina Alekseeva (5-2-0) v. Klaudia Sygula (6-2-0)
Irina Alekseeva (High-end GPP option)
- Height: 5′8″ – Reach: 67″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 5 wins (1 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Powerful striker with sharp Sambo transitions and submission chops
- Physically more imposing, should dictate where this fight goes
- Height: 5′8″ – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6 wins (2 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions)
- BJJ-heavy game plan, but lacks physicality vs. stronger foes
- Looked off in her debut, struggled against pace and pressure
DFS Perspective: Sygula's BJJ is solid, but she's undersized and got steamrolled in her debut. Alekseeva has the power, top control and physical advantage to impose her style. Expect her to control position, pressure forward and either hammer the stand-up or drag this to the mat.
UFC Baku Pick: Alekseeva
Tagir Ulanbekov (16-2-0) v. Azat Maksum (15-1-0)
Tagir Ulanbekov (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5′7″ – Reach: 70″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 16 wins (9 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Combat sambo specialist with elite wrestling and top control
- Durable grinder—consistently chains takedowns and smothers opponents
- Height: 5′7″ – Reach: 70″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 15 wins (4 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Well-rounded finisher capable of striking or grappling finishes
- Dominant on the regional circuit
DFS Perspective: Maksum is exciting and has shown he can finish fights, but Ulanbekov's experience and proven wrestling should set the tone. His top game and durability give him a clear path to control the fight and rack up takedowns. Maksum will have his moments, but Ulanbekov should wear him down and outpoint him.
UFC Baku Pick: Ulanbekov
Mohammad Usman (10-4-0) v. Hamdy Abdelwahab (6-0-0)
- Height: 6′2″ – Reach: 79″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Powerful wrestler-striker hybrid with high output and solid takedowns
- Inconsistent form; 2 UFC losses in last three outings, looked off in his most recent win
Hamdy Abdelwahab (High-end GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 6′2″ – Reach: 72″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 6 wins (5 KO/TKO, 1 decision)
- Olympian Greco‑Roman wrestler turned knockout artist with massive power
- Undefeated as a professional MMA fighter
DFS Perspective: Usman's tools are legitimate, but he's looked shaky lately and can't match Hamdy's power or wrestling pedigree. Abdelwahab's Greco‑Roman background gives him a unique edge in clinch control, and he's got a one-punch knockout threat. If he lands first, this could end early. DFS-wise, he offers massive upside with power and takedown potential.
UFC Baku Pick: Abdelwahab
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
