NFL Odds Tracker: NFL Week 16 Spreads and Totals

NFL Odds Tracker: NFL Week 16 Odds, Over/Unders and Spreads

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention. 

On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.  

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NFL Week 16 Odds 

Week 16 NFL Lines (odds via BetMGM)

*home team in bold

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NFL Week 16 Odds Observations

• The highest spread is Texans -14 vs Raiders
• The lowest spread is Packers -1.5 vs. Bears
• There are 5 games that have a line of 6.0 points or greater
• The highest total game is Lions vs Steelers 52; the lowest total game is Chiefs vs Titans 37.5 
• There are 9 road favorites in Week 16
• There is a heavy concentration of totals between point ranges 46.5 - 52.5 
• The highest team totals are Lions, 49ers, Bills, Texans, Bengals
• The lowest team totals are Raiders, Browns, Jets, Titans, Commanders

NFL Week 16 Line Movement

A quarterback is the only position that can significantly move an NFL point spread, and a top-tier QB can be worth up to seven or more points. For all other positions, the impact is minimal and usually less than a single point, unless multiple players on the same unit are injured. When a unit has multiple starters out, it is often overlooked in the handicapping world. OL, DL, secondary, and WR are the units that are impacted the most. 

As we enter the final stretch of the NFL season, I will focus on more recent line movement in the write-ups, as the same teams (Rams, Seahawks, Patriots) are typically going to see the biggest moves from May until now. 

The key here is to examine line movement over the last 7-10 days and understand why the line has shifted.  Weather will also play a key factor in outdoor games and those in colder regions, so keep an eye on the totals (snow, wind, and temperatures below 40 degrees). 

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 Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans

Week 15 had some significant injuries, and none more than Patrick Mahomes, who tore his ACL and will hopefully be back for the 2026 season. The Chiefs' season has been a difficult one with a lot of injuries to the offensive line, which has impacted their offense as a whole. 

The Titans are one of the worst teams in the league and have seen their power rating decline with some of the biggest line movements every week. But now we have a Chiefs team that has nothing left to play for, and this line reflects that.

The Chiefs opened 7.0 point road favorites and saw this jump to -11.5 on 12/9, but the loss to the Chargers caused it to move to Chiefs -10.0. The Mahomes injury last Sunday impacted the line by -5.5 points as it then moved to Chiefs -4.5. The line dropped even further to -3.5, and then -3.0 before jumping back up to -3.5. 

The total has also plummeted with the Mahomes injury, as it opened 44.5 and reopened 41.5, but then dropped to 40.5 and now sits at 37.5. 

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals 

We have reached the point in the season where eliminated teams have begun to pack it in. We are in that situation with both of these teams, but that does not mean they will both just give up. The Falcons had an incredible win on Thursday night football against the Bucs in Week 15, but the Cardinals have most likely just given up after a 40-20 blowout loss to the Texans. 

The Cardinals originally opened 3.5 home favorites, but it reopened -1.5 and immediately flipped to the Falcons being favored by -1.5 points. The money continued to come in on Atlanta and have pushed it to -2.5. The total has moved from 45.5 to 48.5 as the Cardinals' defense has been one of the worst in the NFL. 

Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans 

While I am focused more on the last 7-10 days of line movement, it is hard to imagine that this game opened Texans -4.5. The Raiders are now considered the worst team in football from a power rating perspective, while the Texans are moving towards being a favorite to come out of the AFC. 

The Texans reopened -12.5 and it dipped to -11.5 immediately. But the line then moved a full 3 points on 12/14 up to -14.5. It has bounced around from -14.0 and -14.5. 

The total has crashed from the opening number of 43.5 and now sits at 37.5.

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NFL Week 16 Injury Report

Stay on top of the latest NFL injury news and other top NFL news here at Rotowire.