Bills vs. Jaguars Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Wild Card Weekend
We're set for a dandy of a wild-card matchup between two talented, versatile offenses in what should be near-perfect weather. Read on for best bets and props for the AFC showdown.
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Bills at Jaguars Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
- Moneyline: Bills -108 (FanDuel), Jaguars -108 (DraftKings, FanDuel)
- Point spread: Bills +1.5 (DraftKings), Jaguars +1.5 (FanDuel)
- Totals: Over 51.5 (Fanatics), Under 52 (BetMGM)
The spread for this game has seen some very interesting movement, although depending on the sportsbook, you can still find either team as high as a 1.5-point underdog at time of publishing.
At DraftKings, the movement has been decidedly in favor of Jacksonville, however, as the Jags have gone from 1.5-point underdogs at the open, to 1.5-point favorites entering the weekend.
Meanwhile, the total has had movement as well, but it's landed right back where it started. It's also only moved over a one-point range, that being 51.5 to 52.5 at mid-week, and then back down to the former ahead of the weekend. Notably the Over is just 3-5 in the Bills' road games and 4-4 in the Jaguars' home games this season.
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Bills at Jaguars Betting Picks
It's not often that a first overall pick has the luxury of a true career turnaround in his fifth year while still on his original team, but that's the case for Trevor Lawrence under first-year head coach Liam Coen. It naturally took a while for Coen's system to full sink in, but Lawrence finished the season on a seven-game tear where he posted an 18:4 TD:INT while averaging 5.4 yards per carry and adding four additional touchdowns on the ground.
The matchup against the Bills secondary will prove a real test, considering Buffalo allowed an NFL-low 140.5 passing yards per road game during the regular season. However, where Lawrence may have a greater advantage than Josh Allen in this particular matchup lies in the former's seemingly better chances of leading a balanced offensive attack.
With the Bills surrendering an AFC-high 149.1 rushing yards per road game during the regular season and 5.0 RB yards per carry overall, Travis Etienne could have more consistent success than the dynamic James Cook versus a Jags defense that conceded just 85.6 rushing yards and 3.9 RB yards per carry.
Jacksonville also picked off an AFC-high 22 passes and recorded a solid 32 sacks, and the Jags gave up an AFC-low 15.0 points per home contest. Therefore, the matchup similarly lines up as a daunting one for Allen, who took a career-high 40 sacks this season. Buffalo's relatively middling and inconsistent wide-receiver corps may also struggle to make inroads against the Jags' opportunistic secondary.
However, Dalton Kincaid, who can make big plays down the field, and often helps make up for shortcomings elsewhere in the pass-catching corps, could thrive versus a defense that surrendered the sixth-most receptions (104) and 10th-most receiving yards (1,004) to tight ends. As such, we have the basis for our two wagers below.
Bills at Jaguars Best Bets
- Jaguars Alt. Spread +3.5 and Travis Etienne 70+ rushing + receiving yards (-105 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Dalton Kincaid Over 39.5 receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Bills at Jaguars Prediction
What should be a wire-to-wire battle will feature some moments for each offense, but I ultimately give the edge to the better all-around defense, which happens to belong to the home squad. Additionally, Jacksonville should have a slightly better chance to run a truly balanced attack if Buffalo's run-defense trends from the regular season mostly carry over, leading to a narrow win.
Jaguars 27, Bills 24
