This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Who wins the 2025 fantasy football ADP battle between Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield and Bo Nix?
Let's break down value, upside and risk, so you can draft with confidence.
As the elite quarterbacks fly off the board in early rounds, fantasy managers are left to choose between options in the QB6–QB8 tier. Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield and Bo Nix each offer different combinations of floor and ceiling. Their range of outcomes could define your 2025 fantasy season.
Check out our Picks and Props tool to find the best prop bets for these players and more for added context on player expectations heading into the 2025 season.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (QB6)
Back-to-back QB8 finishes raise concern about Mahomes for this season. He had no more than 27 touchdown passes each of the last two years, while his yards per attempt dropped to career lows (7.0 in 2023, 6.8 in 2024).
The Chiefs have embraced a more conservative identity, which has limited Mahomes' explosive fantasy games. The last two seasons, he's had one 30-point fantasy game, clearing 25 points just four times. He still has a stable rushing floor (300-plus yards annually), but after averaging 303.3 passing yards per game in 2018-22, he averaged just 253.5 the last two seasons.
Mahomes enters 2025 with a strong supporting cast with Rashee Rice (knee), Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown and Travis Kelce. If the offense reopens the playbook and attacks downfield once again, top-3 upside returns to
Who wins the 2025 fantasy football ADP battle between Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield and Bo Nix?
Let's break down value, upside and risk, so you can draft with confidence.
As the elite quarterbacks fly off the board in early rounds, fantasy managers are left to choose between options in the QB6–QB8 tier. Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield and Bo Nix each offer different combinations of floor and ceiling. Their range of outcomes could define your 2025 fantasy season.
Check out our Picks and Props tool to find the best prop bets for these players and more for added context on player expectations heading into the 2025 season.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (QB6)
Back-to-back QB8 finishes raise concern about Mahomes for this season. He had no more than 27 touchdown passes each of the last two years, while his yards per attempt dropped to career lows (7.0 in 2023, 6.8 in 2024).
The Chiefs have embraced a more conservative identity, which has limited Mahomes' explosive fantasy games. The last two seasons, he's had one 30-point fantasy game, clearing 25 points just four times. He still has a stable rushing floor (300-plus yards annually), but after averaging 303.3 passing yards per game in 2018-22, he averaged just 253.5 the last two seasons.
Mahomes enters 2025 with a strong supporting cast with Rashee Rice (knee), Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown and Travis Kelce. If the offense reopens the playbook and attacks downfield once again, top-3 upside returns to the table.
The bottom line:
Mahomes is being drafted at QB6 like it's 2021, but the last two seasons show real volatility. If you're skeptical about a full rebound, pass on him in this tier.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (QB7)
Quietly dependable, Mayfield looks like a rock-solid QB1 value. He delivered his best season as a pro in 2024, passing for 4,500 passing yards and 41 TDs and adding 378 yards and three scores on the ground.
With Offensive coordinator Liam Coen departing for Jacksonville, new play-caller Josh Grizzard inherits a strong setup: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan and first-round pick Emeka Egbuka are solid weapons. The Bucs' defense isn't dominant, meaning shootouts should remain common. That only boosts Mayfield's weekly fantasy floor.
Mayfield has now logged consecutive healthy seasons with efficient play and a strong connection to his top receivers.
The bottom line:
You're not getting much of a discount at QB7, but the profile is solid. Mayfield is a plug-and-play QB1 if you miss on elite options.
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (QB8)
Rookie-year flashes meet sophomore-year volatility concerns.
Nix posted 3,775 passing yards, 33 total touchdowns and 430 rushing yards in 2024. In his final seven games, he topped 25 fantasy points three times. As Marvin Mims took on a bigger role, Nix's downfield success improved, but his short-area tendencies and erratic accuracy still showed up at times.
Denver added rookie RJ Harvey (second round) and veteran J.K. Dobbins to the backfield this offseason and shored up its defense, which could lead to a more conservative gameplan. If Denver controls pace, Nix's volume could dip. That's a problem for someone whose value depends on doing everything.
The bottom line:
Nix is a dynamic dual-threat QB with top-10 upside. But he's already priced near his ceiling at QB8, and Denver's run-first outlook could limit weekly consistency.
Final Thoughts on Fantasy Football ADP QB Values
Mahomes, Mayfield, and Nix each represent a different archetype:
Mahomes: High-upside shown pre-2023, now with recent risk.
Mayfield: Stable floor, strong weapons and system continuity.
Nix: Rushing upside, but volume and script are real concerns.
My pick in this tier is Baker Mayfield. He offers the best combination of stability, upside and team support.
If you're swinging for the fences, Mahomes is worth the gamble if you think the Chiefs will return to a downfield passing game this season.
Nix is an exciting prospect, but his situation demands caution at his ADP.
If you're looking to bet on any of these players' futures, see Rotowire's suggestions: https://www.rotowire.com/picks/nfl/
For more analysis on all positions, explore my latest articles at Rotowire: https://www.rotowire.com/writer/jim-coventry-465
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