Things are starting to become clearer. Arch Manning isn't going to win the Heisman, for example. Penn State knows how to beat up on low-level competition. Also, to pat myself on the back for a moment, I called Virginia Tech being checked out against Old Dominion and Brent Pry getting fired. While I felt like I could see that coming, some things are more cloudy, and some of those are in place here in Week 4. There are some things I feel good about, though, such as these players to start, and also these players to sit. Let's get into a week featuring something we all predicted: a huge game between Illinois and Indiana in primetime.
AAC Week 4 Starts and Sits
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Zion Booker, WR, Tulsa at Oklahoma State
There are several tough matchups facing AAC teams in Week 4, but Oklahoma State does not appear to be one of those. Oregon has a robust offense, but Oregon dropped 69 points on the Cowboys. While Booker's 208 yards and one touchdown through three games doesn't pop off the screen, he has 22 catches. Booker has also been targeted 29 times. He is the first and second option in this passing attack, so if the offense is working at all he's likely to have at least six receptions. Then, it's just a matter of how they turn out.
SIT
Corri Milliner, WR, UAB at Tennessee
Milliner has at least five catches in every game this season, and he's
Things are starting to become clearer. Arch Manning isn't going to win the Heisman, for example. Penn State knows how to beat up on low-level competition. Also, to pat myself on the back for a moment, I called Virginia Tech being checked out against Old Dominion and Brent Pry getting fired. While I felt like I could see that coming, some things are more cloudy, and some of those are in place here in Week 4. There are some things I feel good about, though, such as these players to start, and also these players to sit. Let's get into a week featuring something we all predicted: a huge game between Illinois and Indiana in primetime.
AAC Week 4 Starts and Sits
START
Zion Booker, WR, Tulsa at Oklahoma State
There are several tough matchups facing AAC teams in Week 4, but Oklahoma State does not appear to be one of those. Oregon has a robust offense, but Oregon dropped 69 points on the Cowboys. While Booker's 208 yards and one touchdown through three games doesn't pop off the screen, he has 22 catches. Booker has also been targeted 29 times. He is the first and second option in this passing attack, so if the offense is working at all he's likely to have at least six receptions. Then, it's just a matter of how they turn out.
SIT
Corri Milliner, WR, UAB at Tennessee
Milliner has at least five catches in every game this season, and he's also found the end zone in every game. However, he's faced Alabama State, Navy, and Akron. I know Tennessee allowed 44 points to Georgia, but that was Georgia. This is UAB. Traveling to Knoxville to face the Volunteers, a Volunteers team looking to get right after a tough loss, doesn't bode well for Milliner. Unless the Tennessee defense turns out to be below average, which I don't respect, this will be a major step up in competition.
ACC Week 4 Starts and Sits
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Adam Randall, RB, Clemson vs. Syracuse
Randall barely saw the ball against LSU, but he found the end zone. Since then, his role has gotten larger, and he's continued to produce. In each of his last two games he's averaged 5.3 yards per carry and found the end zone. While Clemson is not a national title contender (which some of us believed to be true before the first ball was snapped), it has a fine opportunity to run all over Syracuse. The Orange have allowed 165.0 rushing yards per game and Fran Brown seems to be on one like he's Dabo Swinney or something.
SIT
CJ Daniels, WR, Miami (FL) vs. Florida
Daniels went from a star at Liberty to an afterthought at LSU to something in between at Miami. He has three touchdowns, but two came against Bethune-Cookman. Additionally, he has 14 catches on 14 targets, which is a level of conversation essentially impossible to sustain. Say what you will about Florida – For example that the offense is bad and Billy Napier is going to get fired – but the defense has not been a problem. The Gators have allowed 177.3 passing yards and 12.7 points per game.
Big Ten Week 4 Starts and Sits
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Dakorien Moore, QB, Oregon vs. Oregon State
Because the Ducks haven't had to sweat an iota, the offensive numbers are well-distributed and nobody really stands out. Malik Benson has a couple more catches than Moore, but Moore also has three carries for 42 yards and a touchdown and seems to have more big-play ability. Regardless, there's room for multiple Ducks to have good days against the Beavers. The (ostensible) lack of conference has gutted the program, and they have allowed at least 34 points in all three games this year.
SIT
Luke Altmyer, QB, Illinois at Indiana
It's been a breeze for Altmyer so far, as he's completed 71.8 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. However, what happens when he stops facing teams in the western parts of Illinois and Michigan and facing a top-20 defense on the road? The Hoosiers have been particularly good against the pass, having only allowed 105.3 yards per game through the air.
Big 12 Week 4 Starts and Sits
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Sawyer Robertson, QB, Baylor vs. Arizona State
Robertson has been airing out this year, as he already has over 1,000 passing yards with 10 touchdowns. He did just throw two picks against Samford, but maybe he got a little loose against an FCS team. Robertson only threw eight picks last season, so that does feel anomalous. I have questions about Arizona State's defense. It has allowed the most passing yards per game of any Big 12 team, and even Northern Arizona scored 19 points against ASU.
SIT
Coy Eakin, WR, Texas Tech at Utah
Eakin has a touchdown in every game this season, and he will score more in the future. He had seven touchdowns with the Red Raiders last year and has some good matchups left to enjoy. This is not one of those matchups. Utah's defense has been as expected under its long-running brain trust. The Utes have given up 134.0 passing yards and 8.3 points per contest. Eakin's trip to face Utah will be his first, and I believe his touchdown streak ends here in Week 4.
Conference USA Week 4 Starts and Sits
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Kejon Owens, RB, FIU vs. Delaware
Owens opted out of the transfer portal after a coaching change for Florida International, and it has been to his benefit. He's carried the ball 45 times and notched 322 yards and four touchdowns. Even against Penn State he averaged 5.2 yards per carry. Delaware is in its first season as an FBS program, and it has had the struggles one can imagine from a program in such a position. The Blue Hens have allowed 29.7 points per game against the trio of Delaware State, Colorado, and UConn.
SIT
Ethan Vasko, QB, Liberty vs. James Madison
Turns out the Liberty offense isn't plug-and-play at quarterback. Kaidon Salter left for Colorado, and Vasko came in from Coastal Carolina. Vasko looked good against Maine, but then the FBS opponents started showing up. Over his last two starts he has three interceptions to go with three touchdowns, and he's only ran for 27 yards and fumbled twice. The Dukes remain as good as any Group of Five defense. They have allowed a mere 206.0 total yards per game.
MAC Starts and Sits
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Sean Patrick, RB, Akron vs. Duquesne
I tend to eschew recommending players facing FCS teams, but the MAC lacks for enticing matchups at the FBS level. Plus, were you going to think about the Akron Zips offense for a second if I did not mention it here? Patrick, a redshirt freshman, has become the go-to back for the team. He's averaged 4.8 yards per carry and just got 20 touches against UAB. Twenty touches against the Dukes could easily lead to 100 yards and a touchdown in what Akron has to accept may be its only win of the season.
SIT
Telly Johnson, RB, Northern Illinois at Mississippi State
Johnson averaged 8.6 yards per carry against Maryland. He also averaged 3.2 yards per carry against Holy Cross. Which will prove more prescient? Mississippi State is up to 48th in defensive SP+ this season. That is not impressive in a vacuum, but it had a lot of road to hoe just to get to that point. To dip into vibes-based analysis for a second, if a MAC team is visiting a loud SEC stadium, I'm going to be skeptical basically every time.
Mountain West Week 4 Starts and Sits
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Anthony Colandrea, QB, UNLV at Miami (OH)
The defense at UNLV is a work in progress under Dan Mullen, but he's got the offense percolating. Mullen, a QB guru by reputation, wanted Colandrea, and the two have worked well together. The Virginia transfer has completed 75.4 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and one interception. He's added 175 yards and a score on the ground as well. Miami held Wisconsin to 17 points, but it turns out Wisconsin's offense is trash. The RedHawks allowed 45 points and 421 total yards to Rutgers, and that encourages me vis-à-vis Colandrea.
SIT
Lucky Sutton, RB, San Diego State vs. California
Sutton has notched 188 yards and two touchdowns through two games, but he's also yet to face a challenge. Cal will be that challenge. As goofy as it is the Golden Bears are an ACC team, they kinda look like legit conference title contenders. Part of that is the fact Cal has only given up 82.3 rushing yards and 10.7 points per game.
SEC Week 4 Starts and Sits
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Ryan Wingo, WR, Texas vs. Sam Houston
This is a chance for the Longhorns to cynically stomp an outmatched opponent and then say, "What offensive issues? The offense is fine!" Also, I fully believe they will take this chance to do just that. Sam Houston ranks 118th in defense SP+ and has allowed at least 37 points in every game. Wingo is off to a slow start (which is to say Arch Manning is playing like a guy who's going to get drafted in the Quinn Ewers range), but he just scored a touchdown in his last outing. With injuries behind him, Wingo should have a chance to break through against the Bearkats.
SIT
Jackson Arnold, QB, Auburn at Oklahoma
Last week, Arnold was a start for me, and it panned out. That was at home against South Alabama. In Week 4, he has to return to his former home in Norman, Oklahoma. The Sooners have messed around a bit offensively, but they do not mess around defensively under Brent Venables. They have allowed 181.0 total yards per game and rank fifth in defensive SP+.
Sun Belt Week 4 Starts and Sits
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Zylan Perry, RB, Louisiana at Eastern Michigan
Last season, Perry ran for 695 yards and four touchdowns on 112 carries. This year, he's managed 226 yards and a score on only 30 carries. Perry even managed 86 yards on five totes of the proverbial rock against Missouri, though I must note that was mostly owing to an 84-run for a touchdown that was a bit fluky. It's also not worth nothing. You can really, and I do mean really, run on Eastern Michigan. Facing an easy schedule it has given up 291.7 rushing yards per game.
SIT
Jeffery Pittman, RB, Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech
I could have gone to the well of Georgia State visiting Vanderbilt, but I wanted to shout out the tenacious Louisiana Tech defense. It's allowed 94.3 rushing yards and 12.3 points per game, and it played LSU. Pittman has averaged 6.9 yards per attempt and scored twice over his last two outings, but in the opener Mississippi State held him to 1.8 yards per attempt. I don't think Louisiana Tech will do that, but it will make things tough on Pittman.
