Tuesday evening once again brings us a great night of hoops action. On today's slate, I have my sights set on a trio of teams with distinct offensive advantages against their opponents.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Marquette 
at Georgetown 
Following a four-game win streak, Georgetown is currently mired in a four-game losing streak, although Tuesday presents a favorable opportunity to get back in the Win column.
Off the top, I should highlight that the Hoyas' offense has a massive advantage on the glass. They rank 110th in offensive rebounding percentage, while the Golden Eagles are among the worst defensive rebounding teams nationally, ranking 323rd, including a league-worst mark during the Big East conference season.
The other key in this matchup is that Georgetown seldom gives the ball away, ranking 56th in offensive turnover percentage. This is a useful trait in any matchup, but it's particularly critical in this one because KenPom data suggests that Marquette desperately needs turnovers to succeed on defense. For context, an increase in defensive turnovers correlates with Marquette's defensive efficiency to the same extent as effective field goal percentage allowed.
In the other direction, Marquette's offense has been plagued by an inability to consistently hit shots. The Golden Eagles are making just 32 percent of three-point attempts (273rd) and 68 percent of free throws (318th), and they rank 224th in effective field goal percentage.
Georgetown already beat Marquette, 78-69, in the conference opener, and given that the Hoyas rank higher in efficiency at both ends of the court than the Golden Eagles during the conference season, I believe history will repeat itself on Tuesday. I'm laying the points with the Hoyas.
College Basketball Best Bet: Georgetown -3.5
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Auburn 
at Oklahoma
It's hard, if not impossible, to ignore Auburn's overall offensive advantage in this matchup. The Tigers have played against eight opponents with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating outside of the top 100, and Auburn is 8-0 in those games.
The Tigers' offense ranks 11th nationally in adjusted efficiency, while the Sooners rank 162nd defensively. On top of that, Auburn boasts the eighth-highest offensive rebounding percentage, with Oklahoma's defense ranking 282nd in the same category. Perhaps the biggest red flag of all for the Sooners is their numbers in the paint. They have allowed SEC opponents to make 57 percent of two-point attempts, the worst mark in the league. They also rank 10th in the SEC in free-throw attempt rate allowed, while Auburn's offense ranks second in free-throw attempt rate during the conference season and fifth nationally for the whole season. Auburn's only major offensive weakness is its lack of perimeter scoring, but that shouldn't be an issue in this matchup given OU's soft interior defense.
Naturally, whenever the Sooners win, it's because of their offense. The only problem is that they are overly reliant on three-point shooting because they struggle from inside the arc. Against SEC opponents, Oklahoma has made under 50 percent of two-point attempts, the fifth-worst mark in the league, with two-pointers accounting for the third-fewest percentage of points among SEC teams. The other concern for Oklahoma is that it tends to give the ball away, posting the third-worst turnover percentage during the conference season. In contrast, Auburn's defense ranks fourth in turnover percentage and third in steals.
Overall, Auburn has the more dynamic, well-rounded offensive attack, and its defense is better to boot. There's a chance the Sooners get hot from the perimeter and shoot their way to victory, but I believe Auburn's defense will generate enough takeaways to get the job done. I'm taking the Tigers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Auburn -1.5
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Miami 
at Florida State
The Hurricanes are a powerful force in the paint, making 58 percent of two-point attempts (23rd) while tallying offensive boards at a rate that ranks 14th. These are two strengths that Florida State doesn't want to see on its scouting report, as the Seminoles' defense is allowing opponents to make 53 percent of two-point attempts (220th) and ranks 253rd in rebounding. Safe to say that Miami will likely see several put-back opportunities on Tuesday.
Miami's frontcourt has performed at a similar level on the other end, holding opponents to 49 percent on two-point attempts (78th) and securing defensive boards at a rate that ranks 15th. A strong interior defense is key because, much like its opponent, Florida State has a poor perimeter shooting percentage, making just 32 percent from beyond the arc (281st).
Florida State won a tight game, 65-63, when these teams met back in mid-January, though it's worth noting Miami had an uncharacteristic offensive performance, posting its third-worst offensive rating of the season. It's fair to say Florida State may have played a role, but the Seminoles' defense ranks 12th in efficiency during the ACC season, so I'm betting we'll see a different outcome on Tuesday.
Given the team with a better frontcourt and a short spread, I'm taking the Hurricanes.
College Basketball Best Bet: Miami -2.5
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Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Georgetown -3.5
- Auburn -1.5
- Miami -2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
