Friday's college hoops slate features a heavyweight clash between two title-contending teams, arguably the best game of the week. Here are my predictions for this and two other games tipping off on Friday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Dayton 
at George Washington
Offensively, no other team draws contact like Dayton. The Flyers boast the highest free-throw attempt rate among all D-1 teams, and they've also knocked down a league-leading 77 percent of foul shots during the conference season. This spells trouble for any opposing team that tends to foul, and George Washington fouls opponents nearly as much as the average team, ranking 159th in free-throw attempt rate allowed.
When these teams first played each other back in early January, Dayton made 27-of-30 foul shots en route to a 79-72 victory.
Regardless, Dayton's offense holds the upper hand over GW's defense, as the former ranks 124th in adjusted efficiency, while the latter ranks 165th.
The matchup is a bit closer at the other end, although the road team still has the edge on paper. Dayton's defense ranks 43rd in adj. efficiency, with GW's offense a few ticks lower at 48th. This is noteworthy, but perhaps the more important stats are in the turnover department. The Revolutionaries have a severe problem with giveaways, ranking 248th in offensive turnover percentage, and this is a flaw that plays right into Dayton's hands. The Flyers generate takeaways at the seventh-highest rate among all D-1 teams, which is the last thing GW wants to see on its scouting report. In the previous game between these two teams, GW committed 22 turnovers, its second-highest total of the season.
George Washington chucks three-pointers at a high clip, so there's always a chance it shoots its way to victory, but I'm betting Dayton's defense will once again cause havoc. For these reasons, I'm taking flight with the Flyers on Friday.
College Basketball Best Bet: Dayton +3.5
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Michigan 
at Illinois 
One end of the court is a virtual stalemate. Based on KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings, we have the nation's top offense, Illinois, going against the nation's second-best defense, Michigan. One interesting note is that Illinois tends to live and die from the perimeter. The Fighting Illini have made 36 percent of three-pointers, and they hoist them up at the eighth-highest rate nationally, which isn't necessarily a bad thing when a team has a high conversion percentage.
The only problem is that the Wolverines' defense is outstanding on the perimeter, holding opponents to under 30 percent from beyond the arc (10th-best) and limiting them to the 20th-lowest assist rate. Long-range shot attempts are often assisted, underscoring Michigan's ability to disrupt its opponents' passing lanes and rhythm.
At the other end of the court, the Wolverines' offense has a somewhat decisive advantage. They rank fifth in adjusted efficiency, with the Illini's defense coming in 31st. Illinois has strong defensive numbers across many categories; however, it has one significant limitation: it rarely forces turnovers. In fact, the Illini rank dead last among all D-1 teams in defensive turnover percentage, and they lead the nation in lowest free-throw attempt rate allowed. This style of defense has worked well against most opponents, although Michigan's only offensive flaw is a below-average turnover mark, so the inability to exploit this weakness could make all the difference.
I'm going with Michigan in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan -1.5
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Akron 
at Kent State
The Golden Flashes excel in a couple of key areas that I believe give them a shot at successfully defending home court.
First, Kent State's defense has played relatively well during the conference season. It's holding MAC opponents to 51 percent on two-point attempts (second-best in the league) and 33 percent on three-point attempts (third-best), yielding the second-best effective field goal percentage allowed among MAC teams. The Flashes also have the fifth-highest defensive rebounding percentage in the league, an important strength because Akron ranks second in offensive rebounding.
In the other direction, the Golden Flashes' offense has similarly performed at an excellent level for MAC standards. Since the conference season started, Kent State has led the league in offensive rebounding and free-throw attempt rate, while knocking down 76 percent from the charity stripe. Akron's defense, meanwhile, leads the league in efficiency during this time, although it's noticeably weaker on the glass, ranking 207th in rebounding percentage for the whole season.
Akron may be the better team, but Kent State appears to have all the tools to make the Zips sweat. Kent State lost 69-52 in the first game at Akron, though it's worth noting the Golden Flashes made just 1-of-23 shots from beyond the arc. This was naturally their worst shooting performance of the season by a wide margin. Kent State has made at least four three-pointers in every other game and has made 35 percent on the season.
Given Kent State's strengths, I'm betting we'll have a close game on our hands. I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Kent State +4.5
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Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Dayton +3.5
- Michigan -1.5
- Kent State +4.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
