MLB Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues: Buy-Low Hitters and Pitchers

A majority of points leagues are head-to-head matchups decided on a weekly basis, whether it be every category being scored or one win or loss awarded per week. While the fate of any league hasn't been decided in mid-May, there should be a sense of urgency for teams that only have one or two wins or have otherwise slipped below the middle of the standings. This week, we'll focus on some buy-low hitters and starters to target in trades (or on the waiver wire) to try to turn things around.

For batters, we'll be using the difference between a batter's wOBA and xwOBA. While there is no direct correlation or connection to wOBA and fantasy points, it is a decent proxy for points league value because of its progressive weighting of singles as compared to extra-base hits and homers. The obvious shortcoming is not taking into account stolen bases, so it's not a perfect measure.

For pitchers, we'll use xERA, a metric designed to be a 1:1 translation of wOBA on an ERA scale. In other words, it accounts for a pitcher's strikeouts, walks and quality of contact allowed. xERA won't account for wins or quality starts, but it is a decent way to identify underperforming pitchers based on the skill they've displayed.

Find out who to target the rest of the way with RotoWire's MLB Rest of Season Projections!

Buy-Low Hitters

High ceiling, but come with risk

This trio is some of the sport's biggest names and some of the unluckiest hitters early in the season as measured by the difference between wOBA and xwOBA. There are two different sides to the conversation for those trying to acquire these players because they've not only underperformed, but they are also either currently on the injured list or recently activated from the IL. They aren't ideal targets for struggling fantasy teams as a result, but they are at least worth noting.

Realistic targets

Bo Bichette – 2.4 FPPG (CBS scoring)

Bichette was one of the more polarizing players during draft season, so it's possible that the manager who rostered in him was a big believer in a bounceback. That could make him difficult to acquire, though his results this season have more than likely continued frustrations rather than relieved them.

Despite the slower-than-desired start, there is a lot to like about his profile for points league production. He hits leadoff in front of Vladimir Guerrero and Anthony Santander, which should theoretically lead to a lot of runs scored. He's also cut his already strong strikeout rate to just 15.8 percent. While he isn't putting the ball in the air or pulling batted balls as much as would be desirable, his 14.6 percent pulled flyball rate is his highest mark since 2020.

Overall, Bichette's skills profile doesn't suggest he'll be a difference maker, but there's also plenty of reason to believe that improved production is on the way.

Brenton Doyle – 2.6 FPPG

Doyle's production has come in waves, and it's currently at a low point. There are reasons to be concerned about his potential, which primarily have to do with his surroundings. The Rockies are among the worst lineups in the league and haven't even hit well at Coors Field. Doyle was also briefly sidelined with a quad injury, and he's attempted only two stolen bases across 13 games since his return to the field (25-attempt pace in 162 games)

His skills, however, have suggested that his 2024 breakout was no fluke. He has maintained a reasonable strikeout rate (23.4 percent), improved his quality of contact and increased his pull rate. The Rockies are historically bad, but Doyle has the skills to overcome that context to reemerge as a fantasy standout.

Brandon Nimmo - 2.6 FPPG

Nimmo has had a dream points-league profile for most of his career, but he never got the fantasy buzz he deserved because of several injury-plagued seasons. Things have started to shift, where he's now a boring but steady veteran. His start to 2025 has been slow on the surface, but there is still difference-making potential in his profile. Nearly all of the key metrics paint a positive picture for Nimmo, including barrel rate, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate. It can be simplistic to just point to BABIP to explain a slow start, but Nimmo's is currently .206 without a clear explanation.

The one concern is Nimmo's spot in a loaded Mets lineup. He's primarily hit cleanup but has also slipped to sixth at times, and regularly occupying a spot in the bottom third of the lineup won't help his cause.

Jonathan India – 1.9 FPPG

The buy-low window may be closing for India already, as he has averaged a respectable 2.5 fantasy points per game across the last 14 days. He offers a different skills profile relative to most others on this list, with his being highlighted by excellent plate discipline while being locked into the leadoff spot. That lineup context is key because India doesn't have the profile of a star fantasy player. However, the Royals have started to come alive at the plate (.344 team wOBA in the last 14 days) after a slow start to the year.

Buy-Low Pitchers

Zac Gallen – 11.4 FPPS (CBS scoring)

"Star" might be a bit overstated for Gallen, but his name is well-established for most fantasy managers. He's taken a clear step back from his peak, but his 4.37 ERA is also inflated. In particular, Gallen has allowed six home runs (1.20 HR/9) but his xHR is only 3.9. His walk rate is also in the double digits, but he's been in the zone at the highest rate of his career (50.1%) and also has a very strong 19.1 percent called strike rate.  

Don't acquire Gallen expecting a sub-3.00 ERA, but he's still a solid SP3 and could provide a big lift given some of the significant injuries we've seen around the pitching landscape.

Cole Ragans – 13.4 FPPS

Ragans might have slammed shut his buy-low window with a 10-strikeout performance against the White Sox on Monday, but it's at least worth checking in on him. His 3.79 ERA is inflated by two poor starts, but his strikeout rate is a ridiculous 38.5 percent. That won't continue, but Ragans has seen his swinging strike rate tick up. If nothing else, there's no reason for concern, so perhaps his relatively poor surface stats will convince his current manager that he's lost some effectiveness. 

Dylan Cease – 8.5 FFPG

Cease has the reputation of being a volatile pitcher, so his 8.5 FPPG and 4.91 ERA could have his fantasy managers spooked. It only takes a glance at his skills profile to feel better about his early-season stumbles, with his strikeout rate, walk rate and even homer rate are all in line with his career norms. There's nothing to see here except a great buy-low opportunity.  

Jordan Hicks – 6.0 FPPG

The good news is that Hicks is widely available, so all that buying low likely requires is plucking him off the waiver wire. The bad news is that the low roster rate has been deserved, as Hicks has allowed at least three earned runs in five of his seven starts.

On the other hand, a deeper dive shows that Hicks is making progress in his second full season as a starter. He's found the strike zone with 53.7 percent of his pitches, which has unsurprisingly led to more called strikes that should ultimately help his walk rate. Hicks has also limited hard contact exceptionally well (4.4 percent barrel rate) thanks to a 59.3 percent groundball rate.

Finally, some of the classic measures of bad luck also weigh in Hicks' favor. He has just a 57.2 percent left on base rate, which goes a long way to explaining the difference in his ERA and xERA.