MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Monday, July 28
Baseball starts off the week with all 30 teams in action Monday. Among the top matchups will be the Brewers hosting the Cubs. Let's look at the betting side of things and highlight three of the top wagers to consider.
Mike Barner's season record: 56-35 (+8.62 units)
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Best MLB Bets Monday
Toronto Blue Jays 
at Baltimore Orioles 
Betting Picks
- Toronto Blue Jays team total over 4.5 runs (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 Unit
The Blue Jays are 8-2 over their last 10 games and have built a 5.5 game lead over the Yankees in the AL East. Their lineup has been a big reason for their success, scoring at least five runs in six of those 10 games. In all four games that they didn't reach five runs during that span, and they were near misses with four runs each. They now have the sixth-highest OPS and have scored the seventh-most runs in baseball.
Starting for the Orioles will be RHP Zach Eflin, who has a 1.37 WHIP this season. His 4.11 xERA is much better than his 5.78 ERA, but him allowing 2.2 HR/9 is a major concern. His strikeout rate has also fallen to 16.4%, which is more than four percentage points lower than his career mark. In addition to Eflin's struggles, the Orioles bullpen that just traded away Gregory Soto, and saw closer Felix Bautista (shoulder) land on the 15-day IL. The Blue Jays are in a favorable position to score runs in bunches in this matchup.
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Athletics 
vs. Seattle Mariners 
Betting Picks
- Athletics 3.5 team total runs first seven innings: OVER (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 Unit
The Athletics haven't exactly struggled on the road, posting a .724 OPS, the ninth-highest road mark in baseball. They just scored at least five runs in a four-game sweep of the Astros in Houston. However, they have been even better at home, posting a .759 OPS there. They are averaging 4.5 runs per game at home, compared to 4.2 runs per game on the road.
Mariners RHP Luis Castillo leaves the Athletics with plenty of scoring upside in this game. While Castillo has a 3.72 xFIP and 1.03 WHIP in Seattle this season, he has a 4.53 xFIP and 1.54 WHIP on this road. This is not a new trend, since he is on pace to finish with an xFIP of at least 4.31 on the road for the third straight season.
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Cleveland Guardians 
vs. Colorado Rockies 
Betting Picks
- Guardians to bat in bottom of 9th inning: NO (-170) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 Unit
The Guardians still have a long way to go, but with the Tigers losing eight of their last 10 games, the Guardians have moved to eight games behind them in the AL Central. The biggest problem for the Guardians has been their lineup, which has scored the fifth-fewest runs in baseball. However, their lineup has more upside in a matchup against Rockies RHP Bradley Blalock, who has a 1.78 WHIP over 27 innings this season. Last season, he had a 1.79 WHIP over 30.2 innings in the majors.
What has gone right for the Guardians has been their pitching staff. A pleasant surprise for them has been RHP Slade Cecconi, who has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last nine starts. The Rockies have a .602 OPS on the road, so runs might be difficult for them to come by in this matchup. Taking the Guardians on the moneyline comes with a lot of juice, so taking them to win without needing to bat in the bottom of the ninth inning is more appealing.
MLB Picks Recap
- Toronto Blue Jays team total over 4.5 runs (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 Unit
- Athletics 3.5 team total runs first seven innings: OVER (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 Unit
- Guardians to bat in bottom of 9th inning: NO (-170) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 Unit
