This article is part of our Football Predictions series.
A good Week 10 fell just short of being a great week after LAFC's draw killed a +542 mega parlay despite a 4.6 to 1.7 edge in expected goals.
Week 11 of MLS presents another tricky board for betting purposes, so rather than force plays, I'm zeroing in on my favorites.
Major League Soccer Best Bets
Parlay: Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution Under 3.5 Goals, San Jose Earthquakes vs. Portland Timbers AND Sporting KC vs. LA Galaxy Over 1.5 Goals plus LAFC Draw No Bet +104
New England has been stingy on defense over the last four weeks, grinding out a 1-0 win at Charlotte last week and at Atlanta two weeks ago. They also lost 1-0 at Cincinnati and topped NYCFC 2-0 in that four-week span. Toronto FC is missing multiple key players, and could be without their top attacker Federico Bernardeschi. For New England, there have been just four goals total scored in the last five matches involving Toronto, with all signs pointing to the under 2.5 goals.
San Jose and LA Galaxy lead MLS in expected goals against, with Portland and SKC not too far behind at sixth and seventh in most xG against. On the attacking end, San Jose ranks at the top of nearly every attacking category, while Portland has scored three or more goals in five of their last six matches.
LAFC are unbeaten in three straight, with their last loss coming at the hands of Saturday's opposition, a 1-0 defeat on the road against Houston. If the last two games are any indication, the LAFC attack is rounding into form, sporting a 7.5 to 3.6 expected goal edge despite coming away with just a draw against both Portland and St. Louis. I'm banking on LAFC to settle for nothing less than three points at home after dropping points in a pair of games they probably should have won.
Sporting Kansas City has shown more attacking flair since the firing of Peter Vermes, scoring 10 goals across their last four matches since his departure. The Galaxy conceded four goals at home to Portland last week, and there always seems to be fireworks when these teams meet, with four or more goals scored in five of the last six matches. There's also the Sunday Night Soccer bump in this one.
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Major League Soccer Best Bets
Betting tip: Parlay San Jose Earthquakes vs. Portland Timbers AND Sporting KC vs. LA Galaxy Over 2.5 +141
While I think both of these games have a good shot of hitting three or more goals, the four-leg parlay above provides a little added insurance for the "MLS is gonna MLS factor."
This is another slate where I plan to mix and match parlays, with the Toronto vs. New England Under 2.5 (-154) and LAFC ML (-165) firmly in play, as well.
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MLS Betting Pick Saturday, May 3 & Sunday, May 4; Week 11
- Parlay: Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution Under 3.5 Goals, San Jose Earthquakes vs. Portland Timbers Over 1.5 Goals, Sporting KC vs. LA Galaxy Over 1.5 Goals and LAFC Draw No Bet +104
- Parlay: San Jose Earthquakes vs. Portland Timbers AND Sporting KC vs. LA Galaxy Over 2.5 goals +141
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