SATURDAY
L.A. Rams at Carolina (+10), o/u 46.5 – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST
Twelve wins was only good enough for a wild card in the NFC West this season, but on paper the Rams are one of the strongest and most balanced teams in the playoff field this year, with the Seahawks as their only real competition in the NFC. Again, that's on paper. In reality, Sean McVay's team already made a trip to Carolina in Week 13 and came up short, one of three losses in their last six regular-season games, including a Week 17 loss to the Falcons. The Rams' last win over a team that actually made the postseason came in Week 11 against Seattle. Matthew Stafford turned in an MVP-caliber campaign, throwing multiple TDs in 11 consecutive games to close out the regular season, while Kyren Williams (third straight season with at least 1,100 yards and double-digit TDs on the ground) and Puka Nacua (career-high 1,715 yards and 10 TDs) were joined by Davante Adams (14 touchdowns in 14 games), Blake Corum and young TEs Colby Parkinson and Terrance Ferguson to give the offense one of the deepest group of skill players in the league. The defense wasn't quite elite, but a 10th-place ranking in points per game allowed was backed up by top-10 finishes in takeaways, sacks, third-down defense and red-zone defense. Really, it seems like the only thing that can stop the Rams is the Rams, or the football gods themselves — all five of their losses this year came by a single score, and sometimes in the most ridiculous fashion imaginable.
The Panthers gave new meaning to the term "backing into the playoffs." Not only did they lose their last two games and three of their last four, including a Week 18 game in Tampa Bay that would have given them the NFC South title outright, they also needed the Falcons to win their last four games to create a three-win tie at 8-9 that fell Carolina's way. If there's negative momentum heading into the playoffs, the Panthers have it. Still, they're at home, and they know they can beat the Rams because they've done it already. Mind you, it took Bryce Young throwing touchdowns on two fourth downs, and a pick-six against a QB in Stafford who had gone more than two months without throwing an INT, to pull it off. Young showed real improvement in his third NFL season and second with actual help from his coaching staff, and Tetairoa McMillan became the franchise's second ever 1,000-yard rookie receiver after Kelvin Benjamin in 2014. The backfield was the engine of Dave Canales' offense, though, with Rico Dowdle taking charge and reaching 1,000 rushing yards on the season despite having just 83 in the first four weeks. That offense sputtered down the stretch, though, scoring less than 20 points in those three late-season losses and only managing 23 in the one December win. A defense that often struggled to get off the field, ranking 31st in third-down defense and tied for 28th in sacks, probably isn't going to be as lucky against the Rams a second time.
Key Info
LAR injury report: TE Terrance Ferguson (questionable, hamstring), RG Kevin Dotson (out, ankle), RT Rob Havenstein (IR, ankle)
CAR injury report: TE Ja'Tavion Sanders (IR, lower leg), RG Robert Hunt (IR, biceps), LB Trevin Wallace (IR, shoulder)
Strong lean: TE Colby Parkinson / Tyler Higbee (CAR 30th in DVOA vs. TE)
Slight lean: WR Tetairoa McMillan (LAR 30th in receiving yards per game allowed to WR1s)
Strong fade: WR Davante Adams (CAR first in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: RB Rico Dowdle / Chuba Hubbard (LAR fifth in rushing DVOA, third in rushing TDs allowed to RBs)
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NFL weather report: 10-15 mph wind, 45-65 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Williams racks up 90 yards and a touchdown. Stafford throws for 340 yards and three TDs, two to Nacua (who tops 100 yards) and one to Parkinson. Dowdle picks up 50 yards and a score. Young throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to McMillan but gets picked off twice. Rams 31-14
Green Bay (+1) at Chicago, o/u 46.0 – Saturday, 8 p.m. EST
The Packers limp into this one having lost four consecutive games, including an OT loss at Soldier Field in Week 16 that saw Caleb Williams drop a pass into a bucket for DJ Moore to end it. Injuries have been the story for Green Bay this year, with a second-half crumbling of the roster beginning with Tucker Kraft's ACL tear in Week 9, and as a result the team rested anyone at risk in Week 18, including Jordan Love coming off a concussion. The QB could have played if necessary in the regular-season finale, but with the Packers locked into the No. 7 seed, they had nothing on the line. Love has a career season in some ways, setting personal bests in completion rate (66.3 percent) and INT rate (1.4 percent, or just six in 439 pass attempts), but his YPA slipped a touch from 2024 as he never had a fully healthy complement of pass-catchers with which to work. Christian Watson stepped up as his top downfield option the last six weeks, posting 18-328-4 on 31 targets in five games, but the offense leaned on Josh Jacobs when it could, as the former Raider racked up 14 total TDs in 15 games but kept his odd number swoon thing going by falling short of 1,000 rushing yards. DC Jeff Hafley's getting some head coaching buzz, but his unit wasn't really all that great, ranking ninth in yards per play allowed, 11th in PPG allowed and in the bottom half of the league in takeaways, sacks and red-zone defense.
No one can say Ben Johnson's first season calling the shots for the Bears wasn't exciting. Chicago won the league's most competitive division top to bottom (all four teams in the NFC North finished above .500), and while the Bears lost three of their last five games, all three losses were by a single score — one on a last-second field goal by the opposition, and two when Williams had the ball in his hands in the red zone on the final possession with a chance to win it. The second-year QB took a definite step forward in his development, but his 58.1 percent completion rate was a glaring exception even as he produced more TDs and committed fewer turnovers. Johnson's offense looked much like it did in Detroit, only with lesser running backs in D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai and no Amon-Ra St. Brown. Rome Odunze looked good early, and Colston Loveland and Luther Burden came on late, but Johnson might be on the hunt for more weapons this offseason. Dennis Allen's defense led the NFL in takeaways, but it needed to be, ranking in the bottom four in yards per play allowed. A unit that's geared toward creating more possessions for the offense is a nice bit of synergy, though, and it's worked pretty well so far this season.
Key Info
GB injury report: WR Dontayvion Wicks (questionable, concussion), TE Tucker Kraft (IR, knee), C Elgton Jenkins (IR, lower leg), RT Zach Tom (questionable, back), EDGE Micah Parsons (IR, knee), DT Devonte Wyatt (IR, ankle), CB Javon Bullard (questionable, knee)
CHI injury report: CB Kyler Gordon (IR, groin), CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson (out, concussion)
Slight lean: WR Jayden Reed (CHI 27th in DVOA vs. WR3)
Slight lean: WR Rome Odunze (GB 25th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: WR Christian Watson (CHI ninth in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: TE Colston Loveland (GB eighth in DVOA vs. TE)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: temperature in the low 30s, 15-20 mph wind, 35-45 percent chance of snow
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 10-2 GB, average score 28-19 GB, average margin of victory 11 points. After five consecutive series sweeps by the Packers from 2019-23, the last two seasons have seen splits, with both games at Soldier Field coming in under 40 total points (20-19 GB in 2024, 22-16 CHI in 2025)
The Scoop: Jacobs gains 80 yards and a score. Love throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Reed. Swift leads the CHI backfield with 70 yards and a TD. Williams throws for 220 yards and two scores, finding Odunze and Burden. Bears 21-17
SUNDAY
Buffalo at Jacksonville (+1.5), o/u 52.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
The Bills roll into the postseason having won five of their last six games, with the lone blemish on that stretch being a one-point loss to the Eagles in Week 17 when Superman ... sorry, Josh Allen ... made a rare mistake on a two-point conversion in the dying seconds. The organization's inability to surround Allen with appropriate talent other than James Cook and, when he's healthy, Dalton Kincaid, caught up to Buffalo this season, and it's why they're on the road as a wild-card team rather than extending the lifespan of Highmark Stadium by another week or three. This is an offense that had to pluck 32-year-old Brandin Cooks off the scrap heap to be its WR2, after all. Allen's numbers reflect his supporting cast — he set a career high with a 69.3 percent completion rate and produced another 39 touchdowns (25 passing, 14 rushing), but his 3,668 passing yards were his lowest total since 2019. Injuries on the defense also held the club back, particularly to Ed Oliver — without him and other key members of the defensive line like Michael Hoecht and DeWayne Carter, the run defense pretty much collapsed. The Bills actually led the NFL in average time of possession, a testament to how lethal the combination of Allen and Cook could be, but they really needed to keep DC Bobby Babich's unit off the field as much as possible.
Just as everyone predicted in the fall, the two hottest teams in the NFL heading into the postseason come out of the mighty AFC South. The Jaguars have won eight consecutive games (topped only by the Texans' nine-game winning streak) to earn their division title, and while they benefited from a somewhat weakened second-half schedule, they took care of business against the two playoff teams they faced during that stretch, dismantling the Chargers in Week 11 before taking down the Broncos in Denver in Week 16. Since Jacksonville's Week 8 bye, coach Liam Coen's offense has been maybe the most consistently dangerous attack in the league, averaging 32.8 points over the last 10 weeks and never scoring fewer than 23. The addition of Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline accomplished what the drafting of Travis Hunter didn't, as it gave Trevor Lawrence a rock-solid target in the areas of the field he was most comfortable throwing to. In seven games once Meyers got settled into his new offense, Lawrence posted an 18:4 TD:INT with a 62.6 percent completion rate and 8.4 YPA. Travis Etienne also set a career high with 13 total TDs, including nine during the eight-game winning streak, and DC Anthony Campanile's unit finished eighth in both PPG allowed and yards per play allowed, as well as second in takeaways. Really, the only reason to think this team isn't absolutely legit is that, well, it's the Jags, and their history suggests they'll probably find a way to Jags it up.
Bonus fun fact: Josh Hines-Allen is 2-1 against Josh Allen, but he's sacked his namesake only once in those three meetings.
Key Info
BUF injury report: WR Joshua Palmer (questionable, ankle), TE Dalton Kincaid (questionable, knee), K Tyler Bass (IR, hip), DE Michael Hoecht (IR, Achilles), DT Ed Oliver (IR, bicep), LB Terrel Bernard (questionable, calf), S Taylor Rapp (IR, knee), S Jordan Poyer (questionable, hamstring)
JAC injury report: WR/CB Travis Hunter (IR, knee), LT Cole Van Lanen (questionable, knee), RG Patrick Mekari (questionable, back), CB Jourdan Lewis (IR, foot), CB Jarrian Jones (questionable, illness), CB Greg Newsome (questionable, shoulder), CB Montaric Brown (questionable, nose)
Slight lean: WR Khalil Shakir (JAC 31st in receptions per game allowed to WR1s)
Strong lean: RB Travis Etienne (BUF 31st in rushing DVOA, 27th in rushing yards allowed to RBs, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed to RBs)
Slight fade: RB James Cook (JAC fourth in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed to RBs, t-fourth in rushing TDs allowed to RBs)
Slight fade: TE Brenton Strange (BUF seventh in DVOA vs. TE)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: 10-20 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Cook puts together 100 combined yards. Allen throws for less than 200 yards and hits Kincaid for one TD while running in another. Etienne churns out 110 yards and a score. Lawrence throws for 290 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Meyers and Parker Washington, and he also runs in a TD. Jaguars 28-20
San Francisco (+4.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 45.0
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. EST
There's a very good argument to be made that 2025 saw the best coaching job of Kyle Shanahan's career. The 49ers simply shouldn't be here considering the injuries and absences they've dealt with — Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner missed a total of 47 games, and Brandon Aiyuk never suited up at all. Ironically, Christian McCaffrey was the only core player on either side of the ball to play 17 games, the first time he's played a full season since 2019. Even with all that, Shanahan had them one win away from the NFC West title in Week 18. The only non-playoff team the Niners lost to all season came in Week 6 to the Buccaneers, who certainly looked like they'd be a playoff team at the time. They wound up 4-4 against opponents still playing into January, so it's not like they only beat up on also-rans, either. The injury parade hasn't stopped, though, as Warner's main replacements, Tatum Bethune and Dee Winters, both broke down in that Week 18 loss to Seattle. A game against Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts is a bad time to be depleted at linebacker, but Robert Saleh will do what he can to hold things together, with late-season signing Eric Kendricks acting as his duct tape.
The Eagles were never really challenged in the NFC East, as the Cowboys were the worst second-place team in the entire league with only seven wins. A Week 18 loss to the Commanders when most of the starters were resting shouldn't count against them, but Philly's rarely looked like the defending Super Bowl champs this season. They too broke even against playoff-caliber foes at 3-3, but their win over Buffalo was frankly blind luck that Josh Allen didn't get the job done. The offense sputtered to the finish line, and even if you toss out the regular-season finale with Tanner McKee under center, Hurts has led his team to more than 21 points only twice in eight games since the Eagles' Week 9 bye. Over that stretch, the first-team offense is averaging a rough 19.3 PPG, and the two "good" performances came against the Raiders and Commanders, teams that had basically packed it in late in the year. During those eight games, Hurts has produced 13 TDs (10 passing, three rushing) against eight turnovers, and Saquon Barkley needed a late surge just to top 1,000 rushing yards, basically delivering half the production he did in his all-timer 2024. Despite all the complaints about the passing attack, though, both from inside and outside the locker room, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both reached 1,000 receiving yards, which must count for something. Maybe Nick Sirianni presses the right buttons and the offense wakes up in the postseason, but I wouldn't count on it. The Eagles will go only as far as Vic Fangio's defense — fifth in PPG allowed and seventh in yards per play allowed — is going to take them.
Key Info
SF injury report: WR Ricky Pearsall (questionable, knee), TE George Kittle (questionable, ankle), LT Trent Williams (questionable, hamstring), LG Ben Bartch (IR, foot), EDGE Nick Bosa (IR, knee), LB Fred Warner (IR, ankle), LB Tatum Bethune (IR, groin), LB Dee Winters (questionable, ankle)
PHI injury report: TE Dallas Goedert (questionable, knee), RT Lane Johnson (questionable, foot), DE Jalen Carter (questionable, hip), S Andrew Mukuba (IR, ankle), S Marcus Epps (questionable, concussion)
Slight lean: WR Demarcus Robinson (PHI 24th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong lean: WR DeVonta Smith (SF 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong fade: TE George Kittle (PHI first in DVOA vs. TE)
Slight fade: TE Dallas Goedert (SF fourth in DVOA vs. TE)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: 10-15 mph wind, 5-15 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: McCaffrey strikes for 110 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Purdy throws for 240 yards and a second TD to Robinson. Barkley responds with 100 yards and a touchdown. Hurts throws for less than 200 yards and a score to Smith, while Zack Baun returns a fumble to the house, but it's not enough. 49ers 27-24
L.A. Chargers (+3.5) at New England, o/u 46.0
Sunday, 8 p.m. EST
It's incredible that the only game Justin Herbert missed during the regular season came in Week 18, when he was held out for his own protection. He underwent surgery in early December on his non-throwing hand and got taken down more than any QB in the league other than Cam Ward and Geno Smith, who were only one sack ahead of him, but he was an absolute rock for the Chargers despite missing both his starting tackles for most of the year. Unfortunately, he's not the only banged-up member of the offense. Rookie RB Omarion Hampton, who missed two months earlier in the season with a fractured left ankle, is apparently dealing with another ankle issue, though the team hasn't clarified whether it's to the same leg or not. That's usually a great sign. OC Greg Roman's made do with worse than Kimani Vidal in a backfield, but if Hampton can't suit up, it just makes Herbert that much more of a sitting duck in the pocket. That'll leave it up to DC Jesse Minter, who could well leave for a head coaching job once the Chargers' season is done, to keep the bar low enough for the offense to clear. His unit was mostly up to the task down the stretch, holding six consecutive opponents to 20 points or fewer while averaging 17.0 PPG allowed, and the Bolts recorded 11 takeaways and 12 sacks over the final five games in which their starters actually played. If the Chargers pull off the upset and make sure it isn't a bad week for both Harbaugh brothers, it might require some heroic efforts from the likes of Derwin James and Tuli Tuipulotu.
The Patriots cruised to their first division title of the post-Brady era on the strength of an outstanding coaching job by Mike Vrabel, an MVP-caliber campaign by Drake Maye ... and a fourth-place schedule. Sure, you can only beat who's put in front of you, but aside from their two games against the Bills, the Pats played only two teams all year that wound up making the playoffs, and it was the Steelers and Panthers, arguably the two weakest teams in the field. New England went 2-2 in those games, and there's still no real way to know how good they actually are. Great as Maye's season has been, the backfield has been just as potent, with rookie TreVeyon Henderson recording four two-TD performances in the last eight games, while Rhamondre Stevenson got into the end zone six times in the last three weeks. Stefon Diggs was Maye's top target on the season, but even if his focus is drawn away by his off-field issues, Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry, Kyle Williams and others have had their moments this season. The defense is fourth in PPG allowed, but if anything is a schedule-fueled mirage, it's that — the Pats don't rank in the top 10 in any of the categories that would normally feed that kind of performance.
Key Info
LAC injury report: RB Omarion Hampton (questionable, ankle), RB Najee Harris (IR, Achilles), LT Rashawn Slater (IR, knee), RT Joe Alt (IR, ankle), S Elijah Molden (questionable, hamstring)
NE injury report: WR Kayshon Boutte (questionable, hamstring), WR Mack Hollins (IR, abdomen), LG Jared Wilson (out, concussion), C Garrett Bradbury (questionable, illness), EDGE Harold Landry (questionable, knee)
Strong lean: WR Ladd McConkey (NE 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: TE Hunter Henry (LAC 25th in DVOA vs. TE)
Slight fade: WR Quentin Johnston (NE second in receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s)
Slight fade: WR Kayshon Boutte (LAC third in DVOA vs. WR2)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: temperature in the mid-30s, 15-25 percent chance of snow
The Scoop: Vidal leads the LAC backfield with 70 yards and a TD. Herbert throws for less than 200 yards and a score to Oronde Gadsden. Henderson leads the NE backfield with 110 yards and a touchdown. Maye throws for 270 yards and two TDs, one each to Diggs and Henry. Patriots 27-14
MONDAY NIGHT
Houston at Pittsburgh (+3.5), o/u 39.5 – Monday, 8 p.m. EST
An 0-3 start to the season kept the Texans from winning the AFC South title, but DeMeco Ryans' crew is the league's hottest team heading into the postseason as they haven't lost since early November, stacking nine consecutive wins. Houston beat three playoff teams (the Jags, Bills and Chargers) during their surge, evening their record against postseason contenders to 4-4 on the year, and the defense was outstanding in the second half of the season. Over those nine wins, the Texans allowed 19.3 points and 286.0 yards a game while piling up 16 takeaways and 30 sacks, and only Seattle allowed fewer points on the year. The offense has generally done just enough rather than making a statement and blowing teams out, but C.J. Stroud has an 8:2 TD:INT the last five games while leaning heavily on Nico Collins and spreading the rest of his targets around to the likes of Dalton Schultz and rookie Jayden Higgins. Woody Marks also had a solid rookie campaign, but he hasn't exactly established himself as a bell cow — the USC product has yet to run for even 80 yards in any game in the NFL. Nick Chubb didn't work out, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Texans look for a power back this offseason to complement Marks or even bump him down to the 1B option. This defense is capable of carrying the Texans all the way, but at some point Stroud will need to make some plays to make sure another stingy effort on the other side of the ball isn't wasted.
The Steelers really shouldn't be here, but Tyler Loop's missed field goal in the dying seconds of the regular season handed them the AFC North title. Pittsburgh did win four of its last five, but Mike Tomlin's bunch went 1-5 this season against playoff teams, with the lone win coming way back in Week 3 against a Patriots team that hadn't gotten rolling yet. Most of those defeats weren't close, either, including a 14-point loss to the Seahawks at home in Week 2, a 15-point loss to the Chargers in Week 10 and a 19-point shellacking by the Bills in Week 13. Aaron Rodgers is looking every bit of his 42 years, with his 24 passing TDs being his lowest total over a full season, and his 6.7 YPA tying his career low. He only turned the ball over eight times in 16 games, though, an important factor in the team's success as Pittsburgh's plus-12 turnover differential was fourth in the league behind the Bears, Jaguars ... and the Texans. Getting DK Metcalf back from a two-game suspension will help, and he should be well rested, while the backfield has generally carried the day on offense with both Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell topping 1,00 scrimmage yards on the season with eight TDs each. Other than generating extra possessions and somehow getting their opponents to make critical mistakes at the worst time, there isn't much the Steelers actually seem to do well, though. They're at home against a team that plays its home games indoors, so anything's possible, but if anyone in this year's playoff field feels like a one-and-done, it's Pittsburgh.
Key Info
HOU injury report: RB Joe Mixon (NFI, foot), RB Jawhar Jordan (questionable, ankle), WR Tank Dell (PUP, knee), LG Tytus Howard (questionable, ankle), RT Trent Brown (questionable, knee), EDGE Denico Autry (questionable, knee), DT Sheldon Rankins (questionable, elbow), CB Derek Stingley (questionable, oblique), CB Kamari Lassiter (questionable, foot), S Jaylen Reed (IR, forearm)
PIT injury report: RB Jaylen Warren (questionable, illness), TE Darnell Washington (IR, forearm), LT Broderick Jones (IR, neck), S DeShon Elliott (IR, knee)
Slight lean: TE Dalton Schultz (PIT 28th in receiving yards per game allowed to TEs)
Slight lean: WR Calvin Austin (HOU 25th in receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s)
Slight fade: WR Jayden Higgins (PIT second in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong fade: QB Aaron Rodgers (HOU second in passing DVOA, sixth in passing yards allowed, t-seventh in passing TDs allowed)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: temperature in the low 30s, 10-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of snow
The Scoop: Marks piles up 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Stroud throws for 230 yards and two TDs, finding Collins (who tops 100 yards) and Schultz. Gainwell leads the PIT backfield with 60 yards. Rodgers throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Austin, and a Brandin Echols pick-six keeps things close, but the home team comes up short. Texans 21-17
Last week's record: 10-6, 8-8 ATS, 10-6 o/u
2025 regular-season record: 173-98-1 (.638), 143-121-8 ATS (.541), 141-130-1 o/u (.520)
