Mid-September is probably the best time of the year to be a fantasy football writer. There's still so much new information to process relative to last year, and then we also have major changes that occur just from Week 1 to Week 2 (and then Week 2 to Week 3, etc.).
I always try to think in terms of probabilities rather than certainties, but the reality of a 14-week regular season in fantasy is that we often need to take stands and make some of our most important decisions of the season in September, based on only one or two games of information. I try to absorb and relay every little usage detail in my weekly recap article, Box Score Breakdown: Snaps, Routes & Personnel Usage, but there's never enough time to give each team/player the attention they truly deserve.
The idea with this BSB cousin article is to take what I've learned from Weeks 1-2 and highlight some of the most interesting situations, doing a deep dive that helps both writer and reader figure out what to expect for Week 3 and beyond. It's sort of the halfway point between the weekly recap article and my weekly matchups article (Start/Sit on Thursday), providing some space to think about important fantasy developments from a long-term standpoint rather than just lineup/waiver decisions for Week 3. Here's what I've learned so far:
1. 
WR Rome Odunze looks like this year's breakout WR.
- Key Stats: 30% Tgt Share / 47% AY Share / 13-165-3 on 20 targets (WR4 PPR)
Last week, I said Buffalo's Keon Coleman might be the breakout WR of 2025. After a second slate of games, Odunze is the clear favorite, with huge numbers backed by both commensurate usage and the eye test. He has six of Chicago's nine targets 20-plus yards downfield, plus five of 10 in the 10-to-19 yard range. Odunze even has more targets than DJ Moore within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, holding a surprising 7-5 edge there (both behind Olamide Zaccheaus' nine).
A lot of people anticipated Odunze taking a step forward — not exactly a bold prediction for a top-10 pick in Year 2 — but not many expected him to be so far ahead of Moore, who has a 16% target share through two weeks. That'll likely balance out some in the coming weeks, but with Odunze still coming out in front (by what margin is much harder to say).
It's nothing against Moore if a top-10 pick proves to be flat-out better than him. I do have some concern, however, about Moore's buy-in and chemistry with the rest of the team (not what you expect to read in a usage article, huh?). This summer, Moore told reporters that Johnson talked to him about improving his body language. Now, Moore is playing second fiddle to the young hotshot, with Johnson perhaps criticizing Moore (see below) after Sunday's game. Bears fans know this isn't the first or second time that Moore's body language or effort level have been questioned.
Ben Johnson: "We're going to have a lot more competition. Just what these guys look like when the ball is not in their hands, that's a big deal for us. There were some plays yesterday that we weren't quite as pleased with what that looked like on tape. So, we're going to find out…
— Chris Emma (@CEmma670) September 15, 2025
I don't think Moore is a bad guy, or at all lazy, but he's spent his whole career on bad teams and is now stuck on another one with some hotshot coach, a 23-year-old receiver and No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams at the center of things. Maybe that's fine when you're winning, but losing games and not getting targets is a combination that ensures Moore won't be happy. Even if the squeaky wheel gets its grease, Odunze's early domination of both usage and production bodes well for him being the new No. 1.
There's still room for Moore to produce in that scenario, FWIW, while sharing the field mostly with Cole Kmet, Olamide Zaccheaus and D'Andre Swift otherwise (not exactly a trio that demands many targets). This is one of those offenses we'll need to watch carefully all season, with talented rookies lingering in depth roles and veteran starters perhaps feeling heat (or wanting out of town) if things don't turn around soon.
2. 
WR Zay Flowers has 42.6 percent of Baltimore's targets.
- Key Stats: 41% TPRR / 47% AY Share / 14-218-1 on 20 targets (WR5 PPR)
This is a potential WR breakout that I'm more skeptical of, in part because Baltimore still projects near the bottom of the league for passing volume. Flowers does look better this year, but he's 25 years old and already has two full, healthy seasons in a full-time role, which means there's some risk this is just a very good player having two great weeks, rather than a true breakthrough. Is he truly such a dominant wideout to justify taking carries away from Derrick Henry or very limited targets away from other talented pass catchers so that Flowers can average eight-plus looks per game?
As a Ravens fan who has watched every snap of Flowers' career, I certainly hope so. As a Ravens fan who has watched every snap of Flowers' career, I would be surprised.
To be clear, you're still thrilled to have Flowers at his fifth/sixth-round ADP, and projections need to be boosted relative to preseason expectations. I think he'll ultimately settle in with a slight increase on last year's target share once Isaiah Likely is healthy, with a good chance to also improve his efficiency some. That would make Flowers a WR2, halfway between his WR3 acquisition cost and the WR1 valuation some are speculating on after a huge start to the season.
Keep in mind that Baltimore's low pass volume in general increases the odds for outliers in the team shares relative to teams that are throwing more than 30 times per week.
3. 
RB Cam Skattebo is making his move already.
- Key Stats: 51% snap share (W2) / 14 of NYG's 26 RB opportunities (W2) / 11-45-1 rushing
Skattebo hasn't looked great, but neither has Tyrone Tracy, who saw much of his Week 1 workload shift to the rookie in Week 2. It feels an awful lot like this was the plan all along, with no obvious reason for Tracy's demotion apart from the coaches wanting to get a look at someone who might be a better player.
Is this an offense that will support RB1 production? Almost definitely not, but I do think Skattebo can consolidate enough of the workload for RB2 numbers. He's taken all of the goal-line carries so far, including in Week 1, and he offers far more pass-catching upside than most big backs (891 receiving yards in two seasons at Arizona State).
New York Giants rookie RB Cam Skattebo
Every Week 2 rush + rec opportunity https://t.co/058ksIJnWO pic.twitter.com/ASE0PjJpK7
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 15, 2025
4. 
TE Tyler Warren may already be in the second tier at TE.
- Key Stats: 26% Tgt Sh / 19% AYS / 31% TPRR / 94% snap share in W2
Apart from Trey McBride and Brock Bowers, which tight ends would be taken ahead of Warren if we had to make picks for a 2025 redraft league today?
Juwan Johnson has the fantasy points so far, but he'll turn 30 later this month and has a very long track record with low target rates and plenty of playing time. Maybe he can sustain something like 20 percent target share and be a mid-range TE1, but his current mark of 27% (2nd among TEs) feels like one of the bigger flukes from the first two weeks.
Tucker Kraft and Zach Ertz, with two TDs apiece, are the only other tight ends that have more PPR points than Warren. There's plenty of reason to be excited about Kraft, but he's only tied for 11th at the position in targets (11), while Warren is tied for third (16). The rookie is also ahead of Kraft for TPRR, target share and air-yard share, by a margin of at least 3 percentage points in each case. I think that makes Warren the TE3 until George Kittle returns, or perhaps TE4 if Sam LaPorta perks up.
I am assuming Warren's target rate will come down at least a little, given that he's sharing the field with other pass catchers who do well on short/intermediate targets. The good news is that the rookie has some room to fall back there and still be extremely valuable for fantasy, after posting a massive 31% TPRR through two games.
5. 
WR Troy Franklin is stealing Marvin Mims' breakout.
- Key Stats: 28% TPRR / 22% Tgt Share / 28% AY Share / W2: team-high 90% route share
Franklin was massively productive at Oregon but fell to the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft amid concerns about his unusually thin frame (6-foot-2, 176 pounds). He's added some muscle since then, but is still listed at just 180, which apparently doesn't matter too much.
We already saw a role increase Week 1, at least relative to 2024, with Franklin getting 63% route share and putting up 4-44-0 on six targets (while Mims had 66% route share but just 3-12-0 on four targets).
In Week 2, Mims scored an early TD, but everything else went in favor of Franklin, who finished ahead of even Courtland Sutton for snap share (85%), route share (90%), targets (nine) and air yards (57). Mims, meanwhile, finished with just two targets and 43% route share.
Franklin looked fantastic, and it's a great sign when a breakthrough in the box score is supported by both a jump in playing time and a higher rate of targets per snap/route. On the other hand, Sean Payton's usage of skill-position players has been reliably maddening, apart from Sutton, who may now also be somewhat vulnerable (Pat Bryant replaced him as the X receiver on 27% of Denver's plays in Week 2).
The Broncos won't necessarily support multiple fantasy-viable WRs even if they have multiple guys with that level of talent. The hope with Franklin, dare I say it, is that he can supplant Sutton as the focal point of the passing attack. It's not a possibility I really considered before the season, but both usage and production are strongly in Franklin's favor through two weeks.
That said.... Franklin has just two catches 10-plus yards downfield, with five behind the line of scrimmage and another five within 10 yards of the line. It's not the same as what Marvin Mims did last year, because Franklin is getting far more playing time, but we'll still see the volume and production shift back to Sutton when the Broncos get matchups with a bit more man coverage (something Indy almost never uses) and more chances to strike downfield.
It's exciting to see how well Franklin has responded while working from slot (44% of snaps), perimeter (38%) and tight (16%) alignments, but the lack of downfield work combined with Payton's history significantly dampens my usual excitement level for this kind of thing (a prospect I liked taking a big step forward in Year 2, backed by a jump in playing time).
6. 
WR Elic Ayomanor is the next (poor man's) Puka Nacua.
- Key Stats: 76% route share / 24% TPRR / 23% Tgt Sh / 6-69-1 on 13 targets (WR50)
To be clear, this is a reference to Ayomanor lasting until Day 3 of the NFL Draft, not a commentary on his playing style. He does offer some of the same physicality as Nacua, however, and is already in a near-full-time role with the target share to match. Efficiency will remain an issue, but any rookie with 13 targets in his first two games needs to be rostered in all formats.
Dynasty is where you'll find the most excitement for Ayomanor, but there's a real chance to consolidate enough target share in this offense that WR3 fantasy value would be possible even in a bad offense. We'll almost inevitably see Cam Ward improve, though to what extent is anyone's guess.
7. 
RB Javonte Williams looks like an RB1 for fantasy.
- Key Stats: 75% snaps / 77% RB opportunity share / 45.4 PPR points (RB3)
I called Williams a "confident RB2 start" after he got 77% snap share and 75% opportunity share in the Week 1 win over Philadelphia. Now it's time to take it up a notch, as he had similar numbers Week 2 while also showing an element of explosiveness that was reminiscent of his pre-surgery self.
Miles Sanders poached some work, including a short TD, but that was on a drive Sanders was already handling (not a case of being subbed in for Williams specifically to take a goal-line carry). Williams finished above 70 percent for both snap share and RB opportunity share for a second straight week, taking 24 touches for 130 yards and a TD.
There's always more downside risk, long term, when dealing with someone like Williams who puts up huge numbers behind volume that clearly outpaces his talent. But man do you feel great about having Javonte in a lineup these next few weeks... it looks like he'll pay off his ADP (and then some) by the end of September.
8. 
RB Quinshon Judkins is being anointed as the lead runner in Cleveland.
- Key Stats: 10-61-0 rushing / 13 of 32 RB opportunities (41%)
Eight days after signing, Judkins got the Week 2 start and led Cleveland in carries. A bunch of those came in garbage time, and he still played just 26% of snaps, but Judkins was often on the field when Cleveland wanted to run the ball (and also caught each of his three targets).
It wasn't a great role, by most standards, but the usage feels close to best-case scenario for a rookie who missed all of training camp and signed less than two weeks before his debut. To me, that says Judkins is being handed the lead role and doesn't even really need to earn it. That doesn't mean he can't lose it, but the Browns appear ready to feature Judkins soon. He could be a fantasy lineup option as soon as Week 4.
As for what happens with Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson... well, I'm not quite sure. Ford easily led the group in routes in both Week 1 and Week 2, but Sampson has done far more with his pass snaps, with 11 receptions (including a TD) and a ridiculous 44% TPRR. The Browns might see enough in Sampson's receiving work to cast Ford aside, even if Ford is probably the one they trust most in terms of pass blocking and knowing assignments.
9. 
WR DK Metcalf isn't getting deep shots.
- Key Stats: 20% AY Share (22% Tgt Share) / 5.1 aDOT / 3 drops
The idea behind drafting Metcalf was that Aaron Rodgers might feed him big time, a la Davante Adams. Metcalf's 22% target share is in line with his numbers from Seattle the past couple years, but there hasn't been much hint of Rodgers and Metcalf turning things into a two-man game the way Adams and Rodgers so often did.
In fact, Calvin Austin* led the Steelers in air yards by a wide margin in each of the first two games, accounting for six of Rodgers' seven targets 20-plus yards downfield. Roman Wilson has the other, while Metcalf has yet to see one, instead getting 10 of his 13 targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
Metcalf should still be startable in fantasy this year, but the early usage shows no hint of a breakthrough, and possibly even a step back instead. At this point, we may just have to hope that he can stick around on the WR2/3 borderline where he settled in the past few years in Seattle. It's disappointing relative to his physical talent but wouldn't be a massive loss relative to the Round 4/5 ADP. No doubt the Steelers are well aware that Metcalf doesn't have any deep shots yet.
*Austin also had a rough Week 2, with just one catch for 22 yards on four targets, though his 89% route share and 91 air yards were strong marks. His most noticeable moment, unfortunately, was when a ball hit him in the end zone and then ended up in a defender's hands.
10. The Bills and Patriots rotated skill-position players like madmen in Week 2
- Key Stats: Nobody above 73% route share
The blowout was a factor, but Buffalo had just one skill-position player above 67% snap share even in the first half this past Sunday (TE Dalton Kincaid at 78%). Kincaid then barely played after halftime, yet led the Bills with 71% route share, ahead of starting WRs Joshua Palmer (64%), Keon Coleman (57%) and Khalil Shakir (48%).
Now compare that to Week 1, when Coleman got 88% snap share, 94% route share and 11 targets, with Palmer and Shakir each at nine targets and at least 74% route share. Basically, we've seen the absolute best-case scenario and worst-case scenario for these pass catchers so far. The opener featured massive team volume and consolidated route shares at WR, while Week 2 saw 20 fewer dropbacks and a bunch of backups getting more run.
Most weeks will far somewhere between the two extremes, although Buffalo's overall strength as a team does figure to produce a few more floor days like the one we just saw.
For the Patriots, there was no game script explanation for reduced usage, but it may have been related to the hot weather in Miami (despite Mike McDaniel working De'Von Achane like a dog on the other side).
In Week 1, Kayshon Boutte was at 82% route share, followed by DeMario Douglas (76%), Hunter Henry (74%) and Stefon Diggs (70%), with each of the four scoring at least 8 PPR points.
In Week 2, Boutte dropped to 73%, followed by Henry (69%), Diggs (58%), Mack Hollins (46%) and DeMario Douglas (38%). Douglas is the big loser there, but it's also suboptimal for Diggs and Boutte's fantasy value that they were slightly below typical starter range for route share in Week 1 and then moved backward instead of forward Week 2 (while also losing production). Diggs is coming back from major surgery, of course, and could eventually be a full-time guy, but I do think two straight weeks of heavy rotating decreases the odds of any one WR consolidating volume in the offense this year.
Other Shakers and Movers
Stock Up
QB Drake Maye
QB Carson Wentz
RB Jordan Mason
RBs Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremy McNichols & Chris Rodriguez
RBs Travis Etienne & Bhayshul Tuten
RB
WRs Malik Nabers & Wan'Dale Robinson
WRs Tetairoa McMillan & Hunter Renfrow
WRs Puka Nacua & Davante Adams
WR
TE 
TE Tucker Kraft
Stock Down
RB 
RB 
RB James Conner
RB Tyrone Tracy
RB Jerome Ford
RB RJ Harvey
WRs Ja'marr Chase & Tee Higgins
WRs DeMario Douglas & Kayshon Boutte
WR Marvin Mims
WR WRs Justin Jefferson, Jalen Nailor & Adam Thielen
WRs Jayden Higgins & Jaylin Noel
TE Mark Andrews
TE Mike Gesicki
