DraftKings NFL Week 17: Top Picks and Lineup Strategy

Sunday's Week 17 slate includes nine games and features two that stand above the rest. Bengals-Cardinals and Jaguars-Colts are obviously appealing and will be popular targets, especially as the slate is smaller than usual. I expect the chalk to condense even more around the top projected players, most of whom look to be in great spots. That will make things relatively straightforward for cash games but more interesting for tournaments, as leverage becomes more important. 

In this breakdown, I've highlighted the top options for cash games and included some of my favorite ideas for GPPs. As usual, leverage and correlation are paramount to winning large-field tournaments and important to prioritize when building lineups. For cash games, play the best chalk and, when in doubt, follow ownership, which you can get an idea of from our NFL DFS optimizer.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Ashton Jeanty vs. NYG ($6,100)

Jeanty is coming off the best game of his career after taking 25 touches for 188 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in Houston. That it came against the Texans, arguably the league's best defense, makes it all the more encouraging. Sunday's matchup at home against the Giants, whom enemy RBs have feasted on, is much softer. Jeanty is considerably underpriced for the type of volume he's likely to see in a game script that should be favorable and could even a few extra targets in the passing game with Brock Bowers sidelined. 

• WR Jakobi Meyers at IND ($5,300)

Meyers has drawn at least seven targets in three consecutive games. Trevor Lawrence and the Jags are rolling. The Colts are missing their top two CBs in Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward. The game will be played indoors at Lucas Oil, where we just saw the 49ers do whatever they wanted while putting up 48 points Monday night. It's a great spot, and Meyers' salary has fallen a bit after back-to-back mediocre games. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Drake Maye at NYJ ($6,800)

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QB Joe Burrow vs. ARI ($6,500)

QB Trevor Lawrence at IND ($6,100)

QB Jacoby Brissett at CIN ($5,700)

QB Baker Mayfield at MIA ($5,600)

RB Jonathan Taylor vs. JAX ($7,800)

RB Chase Brown vs. ARI ($7,400)

RB Travis Etienne at IND ($7,100)

RB Bucky Irving at MIA ($6,200)

RB Ashton Jeanty vs. NYG ($6,100)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson at NYJ ($5,900), if TreVeyon Henderson is out

RB Tyrone Tracy at LV ($5,400)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at CAR ($8,600)

WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. ARI ($8,300)

WR Chris Olave at TEN ($7,200)

WR Mike Evans at MIA ($6,500)

WR Jaylen Waddle vs. TB ($6,100)

WR Jakobi Meyers at IND ($5,300)

WR Mack Hollins at NYJ ($4,000)

WR Tre Tucker vs. NYG ($3,800)

TE Tyler Warren vs. JAX ($4,400)

TE Michael Mayer vs. NYG ($2,500)

D/ST New England Patriots at NYJ ($3,900)

D/ST Pittsburgh Steelers at CLE ($3,300)

D/ST New York Giants at LV ($2,900)

D/ST Tennessee Titans vs. NO ($2,800)

D/ST Las Vegas Raiders vs. NYG ($2,700)

D/ST Cleveland Browns vs. PIT ($2,500)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Arizona Cardinals (23) at Cincinnati Bengals (30.5)

Cardinals

With its 53.5-point total, the Arizona-Cincinnati matchup clearly stands out on a slate that lacks appealing games to target. It feels like I highlight Arizona's matchup every week, but this one is unavoidable as it features pass-happy offenses and bad defenses. Their games still rank first in combined play volume. Jacoby Brissett ($5,700) has breathed life into Trey McBride ($7,500) and Michael Wilson ($6,400). They won't be overly popular either, with Marvin Harrison ($5,400) back in the fold and after finally letting people down against Atlanta last week. It's worth noting that Harrison played just 29 of 57 snaps and still carries a questionable tag. I think it's safe to project Wilson as the No. 1 WR, and that would make him a good leverage option for tournaments. Same goes for McBride, whose price and letdown against the Falcons will keep him under-owned. 

Bengals

Cincinnati scored six touchdowns against Miami last week and another similar performance is on the table Sunday in such a prime spot. Any questions about Joe Burrow ($6,500) should be put to rest after he completed 25 of 32 for 309 yards and four TDs. The Bengals threw at a 68 percent neutral rate, a number that would rank first on the season. Ja'Marr Chase ($8,300) will be the chalk at WR, and rightfully so, as he's the top projected player in terms of value and ceiling potential. Tee Higgins ($6,300) bounced back from a concussion to find the end zone last week, and he's considerably cheaper and will be significantly less popular than Chase. Leverage could also be had by rostering them together in double stacks. Chase Brown ($7,400) is priced up after a slate-breaking three-touchdown outburst against the Dolphins. He's been heavily involved in the passing-game of late, with 21 receptions, including three TDs, over the last four games. 

• Favorite Cardinals Stack: QB Brissett + WR Chase + TE McBride
• Favorite Bengals Stack: QB Burrow + WR Chase and/or WR Higgins + TE McBride

Jacksonville Jaguars (27.25) at Indianapolis Colts (21.25)

Jaguars

Winners of six straight, the Jaguars are the hottest team in the league after traveling to Denver and hanging 34 points on a good Broncos defense last week. Now they get a much softer matchup indoors against a short-handed Colts defense that was just dismantled by the 49ers on Monday night. Fresh off back-to-back games with 30+ DraftKings points, Trevor Lawrence ($6,100) is playing the best football of his career under Liam Cohen. Jakobi Meyers ($5,300) projects as strong value in the midrange, while Brian Thomas ($5,200) and Parker Washington ($4,800) are leverage options. Thomas' salary has fallen to its lowest point of the season, while Washington is coming off a massive game of six catches on 10 targets for 145 yards and a score. Brenton Strange ($4,000) is also viable after catching five of seven for 39 yards and a TD.

Colts

It's been incredible watching 44-year-old Philip Rivers ($4,700), who's been nothing short of inspirational in two games since coming out of retirement. He'll have his work cut out again in a matchup that should be favorable, as Jacksonville's defense has become as stereotypical pass funnel. They rank among the best against the run, and it has led to their facing the league's highest opponent neutral pass rate (63 percent). All of the Colts pass-catchers are cheap: Tyler Warren ($4,400) and Josh Downs ($4,200) each drew nine targets last week, Alec Pierce ($4,700) flashed his upside, catching all four of his for 84 yards and two touchdowns, and Michael Pittman ($4,900) has drawn five in each of Rivers' two starts. Warren and Downs are my preferred options based on price and expected volume. 

• Favorite Jaguars Stack: QB Lawrence + WR Meyers + TE Warren or WR Downs
• Favorite Colts Stack: QB Rivers + WR Meyers + WR Downs and/or TE Warren

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Drake Maye + WR Stefon Diggs or WR Mack Hollins and/or TE Hunter Henry

QB Jalen Hurts + RB James Cook + WR A.J. Brown or WR DeVonta Smith

QB Baker Mayfield + WR Mike Evans +/- WR Jaylen Waddle

QB Tyler Shough + RB Tony Pollard + WR Chris Olave and/or TE Juwan Johnson

QB Bryce Young + WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba + WR Tetairoa McMillan

QB Cam Ward + WR Chris Olave + WR Elic Ayomanor or TE Chig Okonkwo

QB Geno Smith + WR Tre Tucker and/or TE Michael Mayer

QB Quinn Ewers + WR Jaylen Waddle + RB Bucky Irving or WR Mike Evans

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. ARI ($8,300)

In terms of point-per-dollar value, most projection sources will have Chase significantly ahead of Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,600), De'Von Achane ($8,500) and every other player priced above $7K. The Bengals have the best matchup on the slate and the highest implied team total. That's enough to make Chase essentially a lock for cash games and one of the best options for tournaments. He has 19 catches on 27 targets over the last two games and 100+ receiving yards in three of four. 

• TE Trey McBride at CIN ($7,500)

It's been well-documented that Cincinnati's defense has been historically bad at stopping tight ends. They rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to the position by a wide margin. On the flip side for the Cardinals, McBride has been virtually unstoppable, the best TE in the game. Coming off a dud and priced at a premium, he'll be lower owned than otherwise for a matchup with shootout potential. 

Honorable Mention: WR Chris Olave ($7,200)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB De'Von Achane vs. TB ($8,500)

For me, the salary, matchup and Quinn Ewers are all prohibitive factors when it comes to rostering Achane this week. With a tough matchup against Vita Vea and the stout Tampa Bay run defense, he doesn't project nearly as well as the WRs priced around him. I also don't trust to Ewers, in his second start, to feed him in the passing game after targeting him just three times for nine yards last week against the Bengals. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• TE Michael Mayer vs. NYG ($2,500)

Mayer has been left significantly underpriced after Brock Bowers was shut down for the season. Picked 35th overall in 2023, he's a good TE who's usage was all but nullified by Bowers. With Jakobi Meyers gone too, it wouldn't be surprising to see Mayer lead the Raiders in targets and the matchup at home against the Giants is quite favorable. He's $1,000 too cheap, at least.

Honorable Mention: RB Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,900), if TreVeyon Henderson is out

The Bargain Bin

QB Cam Ward vs. NO ($4,500)

QB Geno Smith vs. NYG ($4,400)

QB Quinn Ewers vs. TB ($4,300)

RB Kenneth Gainwell at CLE ($5,600)

RB Tony Pollard vs. NO ($5,500)

RB Tyrone Tracy at LV ($5,400)

RB Dylan Sampson vs. PIT ($5,100)

WR Josh Downs vs. JAX ($4,200)

WR Mack Hollins at NYJ ($4,000) 

WR Tre Tucker vs. NYG ($3,800)

WR Adam Thielen at CLE ($3,400)

TE Pat Freiermuth at CLE ($2,900)

TE Darnell Washington at CLE ($2,800)

TE Michael Mayer vs. NYG ($2,500)

Injuries to Monitor

• RB TreVeyon Henderson at NYJ

Henderson remains in concussion protocol after exiting last week's game with a head injury. His status is important to monitor as it relates to the viability of backup Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,900). If Henderson is ruled out, Stevenson would project as among the best value on the slate and be all but a lock for cash games.

Weather

• Buffalo and Cleveland are expected to be cold and windy. Tennessee, New York and Cincinnati could also see rain. I'd recommend checking the forecasts closer to kickoff on Sunday.