Xbox Bowl: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Best Bets
Some may call the bowl market oversaturated since a 7-5 Conference USA team is playing a 6-6 Sun Belt team in Frisco, Texas. Playing in the Xbox Bowl is pretty significant for programs and fan bases at this level. After all, this was Missouri State's first season as an FBS team. The Bears arrived in style and now get a chance to earn their first bowl victory. Sure, maybe it isn't a marquee matchup, but for a lot of people, that's what the betting is for.
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Xbox Bowl: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Betting Odds
Spread: Arkansas State -1 (Caesars Sportsbook), Missouri State +1.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Total: Over 54.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 54.5 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: Missouri State -102 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Arkansas State -112 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Nothing says "tossup" like both teams getting moneylines wherein a $20 bet yields a return of less than $20. Part of that is the nature of bowl season, particularly modern bowl season. Another part of that is, well, there's probably not a ton of preexisting knowledge of Missouri State or Arkansas State among bettors, and perhaps even oddsmakers. You get a little bit of a feeling, you go with the Bears or the Red Wolves, and then the books hope a balanced number of people have that bit of a feeling for both teams. That's the fun part of bowl season, but it can also be tricky for placing bets, to be sure. So let's try to delve in here a bit to learn about these teams.
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Xbox Bowl: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Betting Picks
The Bears got a rude welcome to FBS football from USC, who beat them 73-13. Well, Arkansas State isn't USC, and that was months ago now. That being said, Missouri State's best win this season was at home against FIU, but it did win seven games. Arkansas State won six, but it beat Troy 23-10 on the road, definitely a better win than anything Missouri State did. The Red Wolves did get shellacked by Arkansas 56-14, though. Arkansas may be an SEC team, but it wasn't a good one this year. Funnily enough, both teams played at Kennesaw State, and both teams lost by a touchdown.
Missouri State ranks 99th in SP+, while Arkansas State ranks 105th. The best unit among these teams is Arkansas State's special teams, which ranked 65th. These are two below-average teams, but they seem evenly matched. Both teams threw the ball well in terms of yards per game compared to their conference mates, both ran the ball poorly, and both played mediocre defense. I will note that Missouri State's head coach, Ryan Beard, was hired by Coastal Carolina and will not coach in the Xbox Bowl. Arkansas State's coach remains Butch Jones, which remains funny.
It seems, and I stress seems, the key offensive players will be available for both teams. Jacksonville State's star running back Cam Cook had player props on him for the Salute to Veterans Bowl, indicating all signs were that he would play. Then, game time rolled around, and Cook was in street clothes because he was "banged up." Bowl season! I don't know how Missouri State's players will react to not having Beard on the sidelines. In a tossup, though, that plus the fact that Arkansas State appears to have a clear special teams advantage is enough for me.
Xbox Bowl: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Best Bet: Arkansas State -1 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Xbox Bowl: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Betting Predictions
The Red Wolves have a long-standing connection between quarterback Jaylen Raynor and receiver Corey Rucker. Rucker only had three touchdowns this season, but he had seven last year and had nine in 2021. Also, he's been playing college football forever. Speaking of veterans, like Rucker, Missouri State running back Shomari Lawrence has been playing college football since 2020. He just had his best season with 967 rushing yards and seven rushing scores.
Rucker and Lawrence are the kind of players who have a reason to give it their all in a bowl game, but only one of them can get a win here. With these two mediocre teams, though, I don't expect one of those high-flying bowl games. Instead, it might be a bit sloppy, or at least a little lacking for incident, but it also could be the kind of game decided by a late field goal.
Arkansas State 20 - Missouri State 17
Xbox Bowl Player Props for Thursday, December 18
As of Wednesday night, there are no player props for the Xbox Bowl. While some player props could pop up, just in case, I will suggest taking the under on the total of 54.5 in this game. Also, while I don't have the payout numbers or anytime touchdown would offer for this player, I imagine Missouri State wide receiver Jmariyae Robinson has the potential to provide bang for your buck. He had five touchdowns over the last five games of the regular season.
Editor's note:
Jmariyae Robinson Anytime TD - (FanDuel +105)
