The 12-team College Football Playoff is quickly becoming a college football betting staple for futures wagering, in its second season under this format.
Which teams will back up their recruiting rankings and preseason hype? And will anybody make a Cinderella run the way Indiana and Arizona State did last year in the inaugural 12-team Playoff? Here we go with our updated projection of the CFP field for the 2025 season after Week 3.
Projected College Football Playoff Field For 2025
Seed, Team | Conference | 2025 (Overall, Conference) |
1. Ohio State | Big Ten | 3-0 (0-0) |
2. Georgia | SEC | 3-0 (1-0) |
3. Penn State | Big Ten | 3-0 (0-0) |
4. LSU | SEC | 3-0 (1-0) |
5. Miami | ACC | 3-0 (0-0) |
6. Texas | SEC | 2-1 (0-0) |
7. Oregon | Big Ten | 3-0 (1-0) |
8, Iowa State | Big 12 | 4-0 (1-0) |
9. Florida State | ACC | 2-0 (0-0) |
10. Texas A&M | SEC | 3-0 (0-0) |
11. Illinois | Big Ten | 3-0 (1-0) |
12. Tulane | American | 3-0 (0-0) |
Of note for customers at sports betting sites contemplating wagers on college football: The seeding format has changed from last year's inaugural run at a 12-team field.
For the 2025 College Football Playoff, the teams will be seeded in order of their final CFP ranking, with no first-round byes guaranteed for conference champions. The five highest-ranked conference champions – including one from the Group of Five leagues – will be guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Last year, the top four seeds (and first-round byes) were awarded to the four highest-ranked conference champions, which led to ninth-ranked Boise State receiving the No. 3 seed and Big 12 champion Arizona State, which was 12th in the final CFP rankings, getting the No. 4 seed.
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Top CFP 2025 Contenders
Week 3 saw a big shakeup, as a couple of preseason favorites to make the CFP stumbled to a second loss this season.
For Clemson, which lost to Georgia Tech, the path is familiar: Make the ACC championship game, win that, then see where the seedings fall. That's what happened last season, when the Tigers lost three times in the regular season but bounced back to bake the 12-team CFP field. But Saturday's defeat, combined with how good Miami looks, makes a similar rally a tough proposition for CFB futures wagering.
For Notre Dame, Saturday's home loss to Texas A&M was even worse. At 0-2, and without a conference championship game to use as an escape hatch, the Fighting Irish are left with no choice but to run the table from here if they want to get back into CFP contention.
That win by the Aggies in South Bend, combined with South Carolina's drubbing at home at the hands of Vanderbilt, shakes up the SEC's lineup for the CFP in our projections. A&M, Illinois and Florida State all enter our CFP college football odds projections this week.
Through three weeks last season, the 12 teams that went on to make the CFP tournament were a combined 32-4 and were averaging 43.2 points per game while allowing 14.5 ppg. Clemson, Notre Dame, SMU and Boise State all had one loss at this point in the 2024-25 season. But there is a big difference between having one loss through three weeks and having two.
College Football Playoff Bubble Watch
Team, Conference | Odds | 2025 (Overall, Conference) |
Oklahoma, SEC | +225 | 3-0 (0-0) |
Ole Miss, SEC | +225 | 3-0 (2-0) |
Texas Tech, Big 12 | +300 | 3-0 (0-0) |
Alabama, SEC | +120 | 2-1 (0-0) |
Georgia Tech, ACC | +225 | 3-0 (1-0) |
We're introducing a new feature this week: Teams bubbling under that could launch themselves into CFP contention. The odds above are from DraftKings Sportsbook, as of Sept. 15, to make the CFP field.
The SEC has 11 teams ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 this week, with Vanderbilt umping in at No. 20 to replace South Carolina, which fell out. Of course, the SEC race will continue to sort itself out as the weeks go on, but for now Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Alabama lurk just outside the 12-team field.
Will there be a second ACC or Big 12 team in the Playoff field? Last year, SMU did enough during the regular season to earn a berth even after losing the ACC title game to Clemson. The CFP committee clearly values reaching a league title game and thus current 3-0 teams from those leagues, such as Texas Tech, Utah, Houston, Georgia Tech, North Carolina State and Cal can continue to dream of a spot.
The race for the Group of 5's automatic bid has not changed after USF's 49-12 loss at Miami. We still think the American Conference, and the G5's place in the CFP, boils down to Tulane or USF. The Green Wave is 3-0 and they end a strong nonconference schedule with their biggest test, Saturday at No. 13 Ole Miss. Like the Bulls at Miami, Tulane's CFP bid won't be affected by a defeat. At Caesars Sportsbook, Tulane and USF both have +400 odds to make the CFP, best among all Group of 5 programs.
