Mound Musings: Fantasy Baseball Pitching Breakdown

A month has passed, and we are now heading into May. This is typically the time I try to sort through my pitching staff and take a good, long look at any underperformers. Most starting pitchers have taken about four or five turns. That should be long enough for the majority to work through any mechanical issues or get healthy or build up normal arm strength/endurance. There are exceptions, so every dog might not get the heave-ho, but I am at that point in the season where I need a reason to accept poor performance.

That said, I'm featuring a few pitchers who have made us wonder, "What was I thinking?" as we reflect on draft day. Next week, we'll flip the coin and I'll throw out some pitchers who have posted really impressive numbers so far, but might see a major dip (or continued success). Keep in mind, fantasy success relies on what's coming next.

Let's take a look at some underperformers:

Justin Verlander (Giants, 0-2, 4.99 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) – There was certainly no shortage of pitchers to populate this list, but the top name on the list was never in doubt either. In previous seasons Verlander could be counted on to be "the" guy. I'm sure injury and/or age figure prominently here, but when do we wave goodbye to a former ace? This has been a very challenging season for Verlander. He was a bit late to sign with the Giants, so he wasn't fully prepared for Opening Day. So far his season has been a disappointment, but even though he is 42 years old, I really think there could be a minor injury (he has a history) at play. Patience. Verdict: Hold onto him.

Charlie Morton (Orioles, 0-6, 9.45 ERA, 2.18 WHIP) – Here is vintage pitcher defined. Morton is in his 18th MLB season, having turned 41 last November. He spent the last four seasons with Atlanta before signing with the Orioles this past offseason. Baltimore was shopping for rotation help, and Morton's time had not been horrible. Unfortunately, his performance had shown a steady decline, and early returns suggest his competent days might be a thing of the past. He's not throwing strikes (which is unlike Morton) and when he does find the strike zone, hitters are teeing off. It has gotten so bad he now finds himself in the bullpen. Verdict: Pull the chute.

Sandy Alcantara (Marlins, 2-3, 8.31 ERA, 1.65 WHIP) – This guy was building quite a resume a few years ago. In 2021 and 2022 Alcantara was untouchable at times. His 98 mph fastball was electric, and he rolled up more than 200 strikeouts in each of those seasons. Then in 2023, his performance slipped a bit. His command was spotty, and he was actually hittable much of the time. He just didn't look right. Then we found out why. He underwent Tommy John surgery near the end of 2023 and missed all of last year. Well, the velocity is back and the command is coming. I'm going to predict we see a top-tier pitcher by the middle of the 2025 season. Verdict: Hold onto him.

Aaron Nola (Phillies, 0-5, 5.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) – An all-time favorite – mostly for his pure grit – Nola continues his roller coaster ride through MLB. He has not missed a turn in eight years (knock on wood), but you never really know what to expect. On his good days, he's a top-of-the-rotation stalwart, but when he has an off day, his contributions can be minimal. He's only 31, so we can't really blame tough times on age, and we've already mentioned his notable durability. This year it's been some bad luck and catching hot-hitting teams. I'm just not sure where he's headed. Verdict: Hung jury.

Chris Sale (Braves, 1-2, 5.40 ERA, 1.59 WHIP) – I remember when Sale came up as a reliever with the White Sox. My chin literally dropped. Then after a couple years they announced they were moving him to the rotation. I gulped. He has electric stuff but limited variety. The guy just has a golden arm. He wasn't the prototypical starter, but he made it work. Because of his superior arm, Sale, despite being 36, was a serious target for many fantasy owners this spring. His performance, or should I say his results, have been disappointing. When you look more closely, almost everything is in line. His strikeout and walk rates are acceptable, and he's keeping the ball in the yard. That said, Atlanta is weak defensively. Add in some bad luck, and Sale has an ugly .422 BABIP. He's better than his numbers, but the problems are hard to fix. Verdict: Hung jury.

Dylan Cease (Padres, 1-2, 5.76 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) – I'm just noticing that lack of command appears to be a major contributing factor in our underperformers roll call. It's not too surprising, but it is more than I anticipated. The Padres are a very good team, with very good pitching, playing their home games in pitcher heaven. But Cease isn't really buying into that. He gets strikeouts, but they don't quite make up for the walks and short outings because of high pitch counts. That said, even at his best, Cease is a big strikeout/too many walks guy, and I'm going to wave goodbye – at least until I see serious command improvement. This is nothing new though, so I'm beginning to question whether he will ever be capable. Verdict: Regretfully, pull the chute.

Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks, 1-4, 5.57 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) – He has suffered through April without ever really getting locked in. His results have actually been a mixed bag. Over the years he's been one of the Diamondbacks most reliable starters, but this year he just hasn't been able to get into that groove. He generally throws strikes, although his walk rate is a little higher than I would expect this year. He has also allowed a lot of hard-hit balls and homeruns, which compounds the higher walk rate. Some would let him go, but I am tempted to hang on. I've seen him pitch – fairly recently – without those problems. I won't ride him forever, but I'll hang on for a bit. Verdict: Hung jury.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings

• It's not a secret I like Minnesota's Joe Ryan. I really enjoyed his last outing. Yes, it was against the feeble Angels, but it was another seven innings of pinpoint control, and that always catches my eye. He's obviously a good matchup play, but I keep thinking his command should be good enough to plug and play.
• In Washington DC we have a young pitcher learning on the job. Brad Lord has the tools to succeed in MLB but he doesn't know that yet. I watched his last start against the Mets. He allowed five hits including a two-run homer, but he lasted just four innings because his nibbling quickly ran up a high pitch count.
• I have always liked Patrick Corbin. Back in the day he usually gave you quite a few decent innings. In 2016-18 he contributed double-digit wins and more than 200 strikeouts in a couple of those years. He's not the pitcher he was – his trademark slider doesn't have the same bite – but he can still occasionally toss a gem.
• Here's one for the weird journal. I commented on a baseball site that the Mets' Kodai Senga has maybe the nastiest pitch ever with his "Ghost Fork." I was immediately attacked by a guy because his fork ball is nothing special, and it only has a name because he is Asian. I was like, "Huh???" LOL thoughts …
• Okay, where did that come from? In his last start Toronto's Kevin Gausman cruised through the first two innings, then went wild. He usually has reasonably good control, but he walked five in a 53-pitch third inning, including walking in two runs. One has to wonder if there was some sort of injury involved.

Find out which projected starters are going and when with RotoWire's Probable Pitchers page!

Endgame Odyssey

Let's peak at the Giants' closer scenario. Technically, Ryan Walker is the "primary" ninth-inning guy, but former closer Camilo Doval has claimed a handful of saves, too. This is probably as a result of nagging minor injuries, stretches of heavy workload and a couple rough outings. Doval has better stuff but he's erratic, so Walker likely gets the most chances. The Diamondbacks were just getting comfy with A.J. Puk as their closer when he blew out his elbow. He's not expected back for quite a while, so we're back to a possible committee including Justin Martinez and Shelby Miller or Kevin Ginkel. The Yankees signed Devin Williams believing he could anchor their bullpen. Yep, he's been an anchor alright. Look at the bubbles. Expect Luke Weaver to handle closing duties while Williams works through his problems. Over the years, I have seen closers go through unbelievable stretches, but I don't know that any of them have been better than Seattle's Andres Munoz. He looks almost wild, with batters flailing at pitches out of the zone (he's allowed just five hits in 15 innings). But then, he needs a pitch, and he hits a spot the size of a postage stamp.

Find out how all the bullpens stack up on RotoWire's Closers page!