Top MLB Betting Picks: August 9th Best Bets & Predictions
Its a gorgeous summer Saturday for baseball here in the Northeast, let's try to cash some tickets!
Season record 25-28-1, -4.35 units
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New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
Pete Alonso's dramatic 9th inning home run in Milwaukee in last year's playoffs happened 10 months ago, but it might as well be 10 years. These two teams are on absolutely opposite trajectories right now. Since June 13, coincidentally (or not) one year after Grimace famously threw out the first pitch at Citi Field, it's the Worst of Times in New York. The Mets have gone just 18-29, a virtual tie with the equally inept 19-30 Yankees for the 3rd worst record in MLB over that stretch. They have scored just 178 runs total, 3.78 per game (30th in MLB) with a .224 AVG (29th) and an 89 wRC+ (28th). Juan Soto has not hit well in big spots, but overall he's really not the issue, as he has 14 homers during the teamwide tailspin, including in each of the last two games, not to mention a 146 wRC+. The other big bats have really hit the skids, however. Francisco Lindor has slashed just .203/.267/.365, comparable to Pete Alonso at .203/.267/.365. Brandon Nimmo is at .180 for August with a 38.7% K%. The Mets rotate the other five spots in the lineup, and are getting next to nothing from anyone save for DH Starling Marte, who homered and doubled Friday night.
It's the best of times in Milwaukee, as the Brewers have the top record in MLB at 71-44. While the Mets have swooned since June 13, the Brewers have exploded at 34-11. They've scored 268 runs and carry a 125 wRC+, both second best to the Toronto Blue Jays over that stretch. Eight current starters have a wRC+ of at least 114 in that stretch, and the ninth is Joey Ortiz at a respectable 95. Andrew Vaughn was rescued from the White Sox and got the call up for the Brew Crew when Rhys Hoskins went to the 15-day injured list, and he has gone all Lou Gehrig since then. He's slashed .358/.426/.667 with seven homers in 94 PA's. But it's not just him, there's just no holes in this lineup right now. Isaac Collins has slashed .329/.423/.497 over this run with five homers and six steals. Their best hitter, Jackson Chourio went down, but in steps Blake Perkins at .276/.333/.534 and three homers in his first 63 PA's. The list goes on and on.
The hits and scoring should flow Saturday as we get a pretty weak pitching matchup. Rookie sensation Jacob Misiorowski would have pitched, but he's on the IL. His replacement, nearly as sensational rookie Logan Henderson, also just hit the IL. The job will fall instead to Tobias Myers, who smoke-and-mirrored his way to a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 2024, but the magic ran out this season. He has just a 4.30 ERA in 23 major league innings, and a 3.77 ERA in 59.2 IP in Triple-A. In his last minor league outing, he got shelled for six runs in 1.1 IP on August 1. His last extended outing was back on July 4, so it's likely he will not pitch too deep into this game.
The Mets counter with likely Frankie Montas following an opener. The free agent signing missed nearly three months to start the season, then has looked pretty rough since then. He's carrying a 6.68 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. He's just not getting the punchouts, as his 19.1% K% is well below his 23.7% career level, and that's despite an 11.3% SwStr% that's more in line with his 11.7% norm. And like every Mets pitcher not named David Peterson, he gives the Mets no length as he averages just 4.8 IP/start.
The one Mets bright spot is their bullpen, particularly now with excellent trade deadline editions. I think the play here is for some early offense and an ultimate Brewers triumph.
MLB Best Bets
- Brewers ML (-130 BetMGM)
- Over 4.5 runs F5 (-135 DraftKings)
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Philadelphia Phillies at Texas Rangers
On paper we have what sounds like a pitchers duel here. Jesus Luzardo for the Phillies vs. Jacob deGrom for the Rangers. But, in reality, it's perhaps the most volatile SP in baseball in Luzardo vs. an absolute superstar who has perhaps hit a bit of a workload wall in deGrom.
Luzardo has a meh 4.32 ERA and 1.35 overall WHIP, and as anyone who rosters him in fantasy knows, he is prone to complete blowups out of nowhere. He has 20 earned runs in 5.2 IP over two starts back in early June was the most glaring instance. But, he also had a 2 IP, 6 ER start vs. the Reds on July 4, and 6 ER in 5 IP on July 23 vs. the Red Sox. He can also pitch lights out, as he bounced back from that with 7 shutout IP's vs, the White Sox in his next outing.
DeGrom has turned back the clock to his GOAT days, with a 2.80 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, though his K's are down to 27.1%, his lowest since 2016. He's gone 128.2 IP, his most since 2019, and that might have something to do with his recent trouble patch. In his last two outings he's yielded five homers and 10 runs in just 10.1 total IP.
I have no idea whether it's just a blip for deGrom, and I really don't know which version of Luzardo shows up in any given outing. But I like the odds of one or the other of these SP's having a tough day, so I'll run with the over.
MLB Best Bets
- Over 7.5 (+110 ESPN BET)
MLB Picks Saturday Recap
- Brewers ML (-130 BetMGM)
- Mets at Brewers Over 4.5 runs F5 (-135 DraftKings)
- Phillies at Rangers Over 7.5 (+110 ESPN BET)
