Last week, I looked into how we may want to re-think our approach in evaluating stolen base potential from players. This week, I would like to tie a bow on what has been an interesting season in the world of stolen bases by looking back all the way to spring training and how the season played out.
Steals has become a favorite fantasy topic of mine in recent years because of the tipping point the new rules introduced to what had become a rather stagnant statistic. I first wrote up how to look at steals nearly two years ago after doing some math and seeing that what the league was doing in Spring Training was a sign of things to come in the regular season. I then resurfaced the topic earlier this calendar year, showing that while the correlation between the spring and regular season was strong (0.82), the team-level correlation was weaker (0.50), a fact that has certainly played out this season.
You will recall that last week, I mentioned how the Mets were doing crazy things with steals and sourced a video and some articles from others discussing the club's success stealing bases this season. With that in mind, it would likely surprise you that no team in the league ran less often in spring training than the Mets. They attempted 21 steals in 31 contests during Grapefruit League games. They are currently fifth overall in the league this season with 140 stolen bases while attempting 158.
Last week, I looked into how we may want to re-think our approach in evaluating stolen base potential from players. This week, I would like to tie a bow on what has been an interesting season in the world of stolen bases by looking back all the way to spring training and how the season played out.
Steals has become a favorite fantasy topic of mine in recent years because of the tipping point the new rules introduced to what had become a rather stagnant statistic. I first wrote up how to look at steals nearly two years ago after doing some math and seeing that what the league was doing in Spring Training was a sign of things to come in the regular season. I then resurfaced the topic earlier this calendar year, showing that while the correlation between the spring and regular season was strong (0.82), the team-level correlation was weaker (0.50), a fact that has certainly played out this season.
You will recall that last week, I mentioned how the Mets were doing crazy things with steals and sourced a video and some articles from others discussing the club's success stealing bases this season. With that in mind, it would likely surprise you that no team in the league ran less often in spring training than the Mets. They attempted 21 steals in 31 contests during Grapefruit League games. They are currently fifth overall in the league this season with 140 stolen bases while attempting 158. Their 88.6 percent success rate is amazing on its own, but the team's 50 percent improvement on its stolen base attempt rate leads all of baseball this season:
TEAM | Spring SBF | Regular SBF | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
Mets | 0.68 | 1.01 | 50% |
Dodgers | 0.70 | 0.71 | 1% |
Blue Jays | 0.72 | 0.63 | -13% |
Phillies | 0.73 | 0.96 | 30% |
Tigers | 0.77 | 0.48 | -38% |
Athletics | 0.78 | 0.68 | -13% |
Braves | 0.81 | 0.65 | -20% |
White Sox | 0.81 | 0.66 | -18% |
Rangers | 0.84 | 0.98 | 16% |
Angels | 0.97 | 0.72 | -26% |
Cardinals | 1.00 | 0.71 | -29% |
Twins | 1.00 | 0.88 | -12% |
Padres | 1.03 | 0.86 | -17% |
Giants | 1.03 | 0.56 | -45% |
Astros | 1.03 | 0.67 | -36% |
Red Sox | 1.07 | 1.12 | 5% |
Marlins | 1.13 | 1.10 | -3% |
Guardians | 1.16 | 0.99 | -14% |
Rays | 1.17 | 1.51 | 30% |
Mariners | 1.19 | 1.15 | -3% |
Diamondbacks | 1.21 | 0.99 | -18% |
Orioles | 1.21 | 0.97 | -19% |
Rockies | 1.39 | 0.80 | -43% |
Reds | 1.47 | 0.86 | -41% |
Yankees | 1.48 | 1.07 | -28% |
Cubs | 1.50 | 1.30 | -13% |
Pirates | 1.57 | 0.94 | -40% |
Nationals | 1.77 | 1.13 | -36% |
Royals | 2.03 | 0.94 | -54% |
We typically see a 20 percent decline in rates from spring training to the regular season, but five teams — the Mets, Phillies, Rays, Rangers, Red Sox, and Dodgers — have run more frequently in the regular season. The Rays have been on another level, attempting steals more frequently than any other franchise this season as Kevin Cash tries to generate offense from the bottom half of the lineup.
I mentioned earlier that the correlation between spring training and regular season stolen base frequency, at the team level, has historically been 0.50. This season was essentially right in line with the previous efforts, as the correlation coefficient between those 2025 numbers in the above table was 0.54. The lesson has been reinforced that what teams are doing in March does not always translate over into the regular season.
The Royals threw us off when the collection of Tyler Tolbert, Maikel Garcia, Kyle Isbel, John Rave and Dairon Blanco went 25-for-28 stealing bases this spring, but only Garcia was going to be a starter for the club, and we already knew he was going to run while on base. The disappointing part with Garcia this season is that his on-base percentage is at a career best, but he has run less frequently than he did in 2024 due to the same factor which has affected the league overall this season: the home run.
The aforementioned articles on steals this spring looked at what the potential 2025 stolen base attempt figures could be using the math which had held up over the previous seasons. The league attempted 2.33 steals per contest during spring training, and the projected attempted steals for 2025 was 4,728. That would have represented a 3.3 percent increase over what we saw in 2024:
Spring Training Rate | 2025 Games Played | 2025 Projected Attempts | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
2.20 | 2,430 | 4,464 | -2.5% |
2.21 | 2,430 | 4,484 | -2.0% |
2.22 | 2,430 | 4,504 | -1.6% |
2.23 | 2,430 | 4,525 | -1.2% |
2.24 | 2,430 | 4,545 | -0.7% |
2.25 | 2,430 | 4,565 | -0.3% |
2.26 | 2,430 | 4,586 | 0.2% |
2.27 | 2,430 | 4,606 | 0.6% |
2.28 | 2,430 | 4,626 | 1.1% |
2.29 | 2,430 | 4,647 | 1.5% |
2.30 | 2,430 | 4,667 | 1.9% |
2.31 | 2,430 | 4,687 | 2.4% |
2.32 | 2,430 | 4,707 | 2.8% |
2.33 | 2,430 | 4,728 | 3.3% |
2.34 | 2,430 | 4,748 | 3.7% |
2.35 | 2,430 | 4,768 | 4.2% |
However, the league is projected to attempt 4,442 steals by the time this current week wraps up the regular season, which would be just under 300 steals below projection. I see two factors coming into play for this shortcoming: home runs and stolen base prevention improvements.
The league is projected to hit 5,629 home runs this season, which would be 176 more home runs than were hit in the 2024 season. That may seem like a small figure over the course of a season, but more home runs means fewer steals. We saw it in 2019, when the league-wide stolen base total dropped by nearly 200 steals as the league went home run crazy. We would have seen it in 2023 as well if it were not for those meddling kids in the MLB offices who changed the stolen base rules. The 4,442 projected stolen base attempts are just 136 fewer than we saw in 2024, but the league has improved its ability to deter stolen base attempts with a variety of personnel changes, coaching, and strategies. The league prevented 21 percent of attempts in 2024 but has increased that number to 22.3 percent this season. Teams are adjusting to the new environment, as this marks the third consecutive season the stolen base success rate has declined under the new environment, going from 80.2 percent in 2023 to 79.0 percent in 2024 and currently 77.7 percent in 2025.
I would expect this trend to continue as the league, as it always does, adjusts. We may see more teams attempt to replicate what the Mets have done with secondary leads and reads this season just as we may see more teams make personnel changes to adjust their defense. After all, the Mets were 15th in baseball in 2024, preventing just 18 percent of stolen base attempts, but giving Luis Torrens more playing time has helped them become the toughest team in the league to run on, as he and the Mets' pitchers have caught 43 percent of potential base stealers while the team rate of 37 percent leads all of baseball. I would expect steals to further be challenged once the ABS challenge system is in play and teams can further prioritize throwers over framers behind the plate. Simply put, enjoy the steals while they're here, because 2023 for steals is beginning to feel like what 2019 was for home runs.
