This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College World Series Best Bets: Arkansas vs Murray State
Arizona did to Louisville (and Coastal) what UNC did to them in the Supers, just flat out choked. CHOKED. I mean if Arizona was going to do that en route to a 2 and Barbecue in the CWS, then you might as well have let the Tarheels in so they could make a run.
In the other game, let's give a hand for Jacob "Money" Morrison and his sublime outing against a tough Beavers offense. In the 1-0 game, Morrison leads the Chants to a victory, and are now ONE GAME AWAY from the Finals. I'm in disbelief.
Monday flips back to Bracket 2 (the right side) with Murray State-Arkansas battling it out in an elimination contest, while LSU and UCLA fight it out to see who moves within one win away from the Finals stage.
It's getting REAL out here.
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Arkansas Razorbacks (-500) vs. Murray State Racers (+340) | Total: 10.5
Welp, this is certainly the most lopsided line we've had in Omaha. The Hogs got taken out behind the woodshed on Saturday by Kade "Sugar Shane" Anderson, where LSU won in impressive fashion. The Racers got bombarded early, which was ultimately their undoing, as their rally came up just short. It's closing time for one of these two teams, but do we get one last signature plus money banger from Murray State?
When I previewed the LSU-Arkansas game throughout the week, I felt the loser would have a chance to rally from the losers' bracket. Ultimately, I've had the Tigers all year, so I was adamant that they would grab that contest. Now, Arkansas is forced to go on a little run here to avoid their season ending. While the Racers are no pushover (as we know), it's certainly the easiest matchup Arkansas could have asked for in Omaha.
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After Zach Root got chased super early in the first game, Gabe Gaeckle (the original Friday guy) came in out of the pen and flashed that first-round stuff in a marvelous outing (6 IP, 1 ER, 10 K, 1 BB). Overall, the Hog pen should be pretty fresh, but they'll need their Saturday guy to be a little better than Root was. Not to mention, maybe go a bit longer.
Gage Wood has first-round stuff as well, like a handful of these Arky pitchers. It's been a weird year as he's missed about half the season with an injury. And since he's returned, Wood has been trying to find the magic switch. The 5.02 ERA is not indicative of the talent level, which is why the eye-popping 50 K/7 BB ratio in 28.2 IP paints a clearer picture. One of the main issues has been the short starts. With Wood only going five innings twice this year, it could be a concern if he gets chased early like he has in most of his recent outings.
Exploring Murray State's Upset Potential Against Arkansas
By now, you've heard me talk enough about this relentless Racers lineup. Wood will have to contend with this offense that will keep coming after you. The five long balls he's allowed have been one of the killers for him, and could be a factor today. Murray State doesn't hit a ton of homers as a team (78), but there are four players in double figures, led by Jonathan Hogart and his 22 bombs. I could honestly see Wood throw a get-me-over 96 MPH heater to open the bottom of the first, and Hogart is sitting dead red and hits it out.
There's a lot of juice on this Racer offense, so this will definitely be a tall task. Had they not left a village on the bases against UCLA, Murray State very well could have won that game. If they can atone for their sins in this one with runners on, there's a great chance at an upset.
Here's where the caveat comes with the underdog. Nic Schutte put them in a whole right away against the Bruins. Giving up a quick six runs, it was a deep hole for Murray State to climb out of. This Hogs lineup is a lot better than the Bruins, so that cannot happen. Isaac Silva isn't their most explosive starter either, with just 74 K's in 81.1 innings. Unfortunately, the 5.09 ERA has been caused by walks (34) and homers (9), neither of which you can afford to give this Arkansas team.
The long ball (124) has been a staple of the Piggy's offense, as seven of their main dudes are in double figures. We've seen how hard it is to hit one out at the Chuck, but it's not impossible.
The truth is, if Murray State wants to have any chance at winning, they will either have to score at least 10 runs or Silva has to have the game of his life. In his start against Duke, he surrendered six earned over 5.1 innings, but it didn't matter because the offense put up 19 runs. That's basically the only other scenario here.
The likelihood is we should be in line for a lot of runs in this game, so the over 10.5 seems a tad light. I realize Arkansas is the much better team and probably going to win, but they're -500. Murray State isn't some dead duck. They have a real chance to pull an upset if they can do what got them here. If they don't win, I still think them getting 4.5 runs is a lot. At the bare minimum, they should be able to hang around in this contest. I'm not ready to give up on the dream. Are you?
Pick: Murray State +4.5 -128 (FD)
Pick: Murray State ML +340 0.5u (FD)
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