This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, April 30
2025 Betting Record: 4-9 (-5.55 units)
2025 Player Props Betting Record: 9-5 (+2.86 units)
We've got our usual split Wednesday slate on tap, and I'm highlighting an afternoon and evening NL matchup that present us some viable betting opportunities.
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Best MLB Bets Today
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Best Bets
A matchup between two rocket right arms in Landen Roupp and Michael King wraps up this quick NL West two-game series on Wednesday afternoon.
Roupp has a so-so 4.56 ERA and worrisome 1.52 WHIP, but he's given up three earned runs or less in all but one of his five starts. He has a 10.9 K/9 and 13.4 SwStr%, and his .231 xBA, .295 xwOBA, 3.23 xERA and very modest 26.8 percent hard-hit rate allowed underscore that he's been better than his surface numbers indicate.
Roupp's .316 BAA in his first time through the opponent's order is a bit deceptive, as three of the four first-inning runs he's allowed this season came in one outing against the Phillies. He's also held opposing batters to respective .188 and .211 averages in the second and third innings, making him a generally tough matchup early in games.
Meanwhile, King has been outstanding through his first six starts, generating a 3-1 record, 2.18 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 0.8 HR/9 through 33 innings. He's been effective more often than not early in games as well, sporting .150 and .174 BAAs in the first and second innings, respectively, and he's held opponents to a .146 average his first time through the order. He has seen his numbers trend down in the third inning specifically, but two of the three runs he's given up in that frame came in his first outing of the season against Atlanta.
Given the quality of the two starters, the fact their arms should be especially lively early, the modest projected total of seven runs and the fact neither team has had much success against these starting pitchers (Padres are 0-for-12 lifetime against Roupp, Giants have .210 average and .242 slugging percentage in 71 career PAs against King), I like the Under for both the first three and first five innings.
MLB Picks for Giants vs. Padres
- Under 2.5 runs - F3 (-145 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Under 4.5 runs - F5 (-154 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Best Bets
A battle of capable left-handers in Steven Matz and Andrew Abbott highlights the second game of this twin bill Wednesday evening. Both pitchers have had their moments this season, and Matz will be making only his second start after logging seven of his eight appearances in relief.
Matz worked five very effective innings against the Astros in that one turn through the rotation, conceding only one run on two hits and recording five strikeouts. He's sporting a 1.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP overall, but his career-high 49.2 HardHit% and even his 3.11 xERA indicate he could be headed for at least some slight regression.
Matz has also had some trouble with current Cincinnati bats over a small sample, surrendering a .355 average and .956 OPS in 32 career plate appearances while only recording three strikeouts. The Reds average a robust 5.3 runs per game – including 5.7 in the last three – and although some of their best work in that regard has come on the road, the team's hitter-friendly home park can certainly produce a strong showing on any given night.
The Reds are projected for 5.0 runs as of early Wednesday after the total opened at 4.7. St Louis has an elevated 4.8 total in its own right, but Abbott had minimal trouble with the Pirates and Orioles in his first two starts (2-0, 1.64 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 13.1 K/9) before surrendering four runs on five hits and five walks in four frames at Coors Field his last time out.
Abbott's .151 xBA and .267 xwOBA and 2.62 xERA all indicate he's been very effective overall, and the Cardinals come in with a 31.0 percent K%, .207 average, .251 wOBA and anemic 57 wRC+ against lefties on the road in April (100 plate appearances). Consequently, I'm in favor of Cincy behind ahead after the first five innings, and I'll also take a flyer on them winning the game outright considering the Cards' 2-12 road record.
MLB Picks for Cardinals vs. Reds
- Reds -0.5 - F5 (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Reds moneyline (-116 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
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MLB Picks Recap
- Giants-Padres Under 2.5 runs - F3 (-145 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Giants-Padres Under 4.5 runs - F5 (-154 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Reds -0.5 - F5 (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Reds moneyline (-116 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
