We continue our fantasy baseball breakouts and busts at the hot corner with two more players who could overperform their draft slot and two others who may not live up to the hype.
Fantasy Baseball Third Base Breakouts
Riley has already broken out by any measure, but he's sunk from a pick on the border of the second and third round to the end of the fifth round, so he fits the definition for the purposes of this exercise. Riley sustained several injuries the last two seasons, with side/oblique issues limiting him to 469 plate appearances in 2024 and core issues hampering him for most of the second half of last year. While Riley was having a slightly underwhelming 2025 season prior to the injury, he damaged his overall numbers by going 4-for-37 (.108) with a 38.4 percent strikeout rate in a one-week stretch from late July to early August after returning from his core injury and before being shut down for good.
Setting aside the surface stats, Riley's skills illustrate he has plenty of pop remaining in his bat. He posted a 15.2 barrel percent last season -- good enough for the second highest mark of his career. Riley also had a 24.2 pulled air rate, which is conducive to home runs and was the highest mark of his career.
Statistical scarcity also plays a role in Riley's value. He has finished with lower than a .256 batting average in a full big-league season, and he's a
We continue our fantasy baseball breakouts and busts at the hot corner with two more players who could overperform their draft slot and two others who may not live up to the hype.
Fantasy Baseball Third Base Breakouts
Riley has already broken out by any measure, but he's sunk from a pick on the border of the second and third round to the end of the fifth round, so he fits the definition for the purposes of this exercise. Riley sustained several injuries the last two seasons, with side/oblique issues limiting him to 469 plate appearances in 2024 and core issues hampering him for most of the second half of last year. While Riley was having a slightly underwhelming 2025 season prior to the injury, he damaged his overall numbers by going 4-for-37 (.108) with a 38.4 percent strikeout rate in a one-week stretch from late July to early August after returning from his core injury and before being shut down for good.
Setting aside the surface stats, Riley's skills illustrate he has plenty of pop remaining in his bat. He posted a 15.2 barrel percent last season -- good enough for the second highest mark of his career. Riley also had a 24.2 pulled air rate, which is conducive to home runs and was the highest mark of his career.
Statistical scarcity also plays a role in Riley's value. He has finished with lower than a .256 batting average in a full big-league season, and he's a career .270 hitter. If he stays healthy, 30 home runs, 175 runs+RBI and a .260 average are all realistic. That's a slightly lesser version of Manny Machado, another player arguably being undervalued who is currently being selected 30 picks ahead of Riley.
Marte's 2025 season was derailed by a left oblique injury, but he still managed to set a career high with 360 plate appearances. He also appears to have settled into a defensive home, as he played almost exclusively in right field in the second half of the campaign. He proved to be a positive at the position with five defensive runs saved and looks to have a hold on the starting right field spot to begin the 2026 season. However, he will retain third-base eligibility for at least the upcoming campaign, providing some extra roster flexibility for fantasy managers.
There's plenty of reason to anticipate a breakout from Marte. He has been a strong stolen-base contributor despite being a part-time player and had 89th percentile sprint speed, per Statcast. Marte's success rate is at 75 percent for his career, which should be enough to at least maintain a green light on the basepaths. His ability to deliver significant power also shouldn't be discounted. Marte had a slightly above-average 9.0 percent barrel rate in 2025, but his 116.7 max exit velocity was good enough for 97th percentile in the league. That hints that there could be untapped power potential in his bat, and he lifts the ball enough with a 35 percent flyball rate). A 20 HR-20 SB season would be a high-end outcome, but it is within reach.
While Marte's upside is rather appealing, it's also important to recognize some of the risk. While the path to playing time appears to be clear for now, he hasn't yet earned everyday playing time in his career. Even if he does stick as the primary right fielder, Marte is very likely to hit near the bottom of the order, limiting his counting-stat potential.
Fantasy Baseball Third Base Breakouts
Garcia is a much safer version of Marte. There's no doubting his playing time, and he looks to be the favorite to open the season as Kansas City's leadoff hitter. The chances of him being an outright fantasy flop are unlikely because of his high batting average and run-scoring floor. That was fine when his ADP was several rounds later, but he's now being counted on as a top contributor on fantasy teams with an ADP in the first 5-to-7 rounds, depending on league depth. With that in mind, Garcia's skills should cause some pause.
His power production has improved every season in the majors, but his underlying skills don't suggest that will continue. His career-best barrel rate came in 2025 but was just 5.3 percent -- well below the league average of 7.2 percent. Low double-digit home runs are likely more realistic than him approaching 20 once again.
Garcia's stolen bases are a relatively safe part of his profile, but his upside once again looks limited. His sprint speed was only in the 63rd percentile in 2025, and he succeeded only 72 percent of the time. Garcia is a solid player and will return fantasy value, but his skills profile doesn't foreshadow the leap that his current ADP would require.
Barger is being drafted as a starter in standard-sized leagues, so it's within reason to critique his skill set and potential for fantasy contributions. Barger has already been named Toronto's primary right fielder, but he will almost certainly sit against left-handed pitchers. He has been used in a platoon role throughout his time in the majors, and his 126 plate-appearance sample against southpaws -- 34.9 K%, 53 wRC+, .243 wOBA -- isn't inspiring.
Even with Barger projected to occupy one of the first four spots in a strong Toronto order against righties, lost at-bats will cut into his counting-stat potential. Speed isn't a part of Barger's game, and his projections from the major systems give him a batting average range of .235-.249. That may not be as detrimental as it was in the past, but it's far from a positive.
There's no doubt Barger is going to hit for power, but that may be his only truly positive in category leagues. Max Muncy has arguably an identical profile, yet checks in with an ADP 55 picks below Barger. It's possible that Barger's draft cost only increases as spring training progresses, given recent injuries to Jordan Westburg and Royce Lewis.
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, lineups, roster changes and more, head to RotoWire's Fantasy Baseball News & Latest MLB Updates or follow @RotoWireMLB on X.
