We've been on fire on the college diamond this season, pushing past 30 units. The MLB season hasn't been too shabby, either. I've enjoyed my new task with RotoWire, discussing a lot more fantasy baseball this season via videos on the YouTube channel and now through the site.
While Fantasy Football will always remain the main stay with players because of the craze around the NFL, it's Fantasy Baseball that is by far more challenging and requires a lot more skill. At least in my opinion. The advanced analytics popularity in the last decade has provided a lot more information, but also a lot more homework in scouting and constructing a winning lineup. Even more so, it's separated the winners from the losers in deciphering where value lies with diamonds in the rough.
Today, we're looking at some good players that have underperformed and why. And if you can expect them to turn it around for your team.
Unluckiest Hitters of The 2025 MLB Season
Rank | Player | Team | Average Ranking |
1 | Kansas City Royals | 1.0 | |
2 | Chicago White Sox | 3.3 | |
3 | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.3 | |
4 | Texas Rangers | 7.7 | |
5 | Baltimore Orioles | 9.3 | |
6 | Miami Marlins | 10.0 | |
7 | Baltimore Orioles | 14.0 | |
8 | Colorado Rockies | 18.0 | |
9 | Miami Marlins | 18.3 | |
10 | Boston Red Sox | 19.3 |
Salvador Perez - Kansas City Royals
The legend of Salvy Perez will never be forgotten in KC baseball lore, as he helped them capture the 2015 World Series trophy. In fact, he's the only remaining player from that team still on the Royals today. It's been a Hall of Fame caliber career from Perez (275 HR, 931 RBI's), especially as a backstop. Despite a career year in 2021 with 48 bombs and 121 RBI's, we knew it was unlikely he would ever come close to that again. But, he's been a strong contributor with 23-27 homers the last three seasons. So why is the 35 year old off to a sluggish start in 2025? Is age finally catching up to him?
Truthfully, his .235 average,.279 OBP, and two homers make him virtually unplayable right now from a fantasy perspective. Even at the most-shallow offensive position in the game. But maybe we're judging a book by its cover. Salvy's .281 BABIP isn't off the charts, but it's respectable enough to the point where we know the 46 point differential clearly suggests he's been one of the unluckiest hitters in 2025. That provides us with a .323 expected batting average. His 15.2% barrel rate would rank as the second best of his career (16.3% was in that 2021 season), while a 47.8 hard hit% is the third highest of his career and best since 2022.
Clearly, Perez still has juice left in his bat, so before you think about quitting on him, his advanced stats tell us he should come back strong throughout the season. Based on Baseball Savant's in depth analysis, he ranks as the league's most unlucky hitter, factoring in XBA vs. BA, XSlug% vs. Slug%, and XWOBA% vs. WOBA%. Therefore, a breakout should be on the horizon.
Andrew Vaughn - Chicago White Sox
The former Golden Spikes winner out of Cal hasn't lived up to the hype as a Major Leaguer. Take it from me, when you win that award as the best amateur (usually College) player in the country, a lot is expected of you in the MLB. Vaughn has never hit .275 nor had more than 21 taters. But even as a 27 year old, it's more than possible to say he's a late bloomer with his best baseball in front of him.
Batting .162 with a .203 OBP, and three homers may make you think I'm off my rocker. But Baseball Savant has pegged Vaughn as one of the top three or four most unlucky hitters in 2025 (based on the formula above). While the BABIP is a paltry .185, take a look at his 15.5 barrel rate (career best), 51.2 hard hit rate (career best), and 91.7 average exit velocity (career best). Though it doesn't bear any fruit from a reality/fantasy stand point, it appears as if Vaughn is trending towards an uptick in production. A lot of his advanced metrics show us he's been playing a lot better than what the bottom line is, so at least, he's a player worth monitoring.
Brandon Lowe - Tampa Bay Rays
I would say Brandon Lowe is one of the more underrated players in baseball. He was strong out of the gate - in the first week - in 2025, batting .306 with four homers. Unfortunately, it's been a rough few weeks for him since April 8th, where he's seen his average plummet to .215 with no additional long balls. But are we rushing to fade a player who (somehow) hit 39 homers in 2021 and 21 Jimmy's in both '23 and '24, respectively?
In all fairness, average has never been a part of his game, as evidence of a career .244 BA with .270 as a career high. But that's not why you draft him. He provides solid production with power and RBI's from a limited second base pool. The recent struggles can be somewhat attributed to misfortune, where the same formula points him as one of the five-seven unluckiest players this season.
His .260 BABIP gives us the idea of an XBA of .282, which is strong. His XSlug% of .510 would be the second best he's ever had, while his 45.5 hard hit rate is third best. The 91.6 EV (career best) tells us he's hitting the ball hard and that eventually translates to production. Obviously when you have a power over hit player, the strikeouts almost go with that approach, so you'll have to live with a 27.2 K%. The likely expectations for Lowe remain he will yet again be a 20+ homer guy with 60+ RBI's.
Marcus Semien - Texas Rangers
If we're talking about middle infielders, there's not many dudes who have had more offensive outbursts than Marcus Semien in the last half decade, hitting 123 bangers between 2021-2024. Some volatility has always been a factor in his game, but at the end of the year, you usually get a guy with about 25 homers and 80 RBI's.
His XBA of .247 is lower than past seasons, but he's still finding the barrel (9.1% - 2nd best of career), while his 87.9 EV is on par for his past few years that have shown a lot of production. A .182 batting average is more than brutal, but he's been starting to find it as of late, going 7 for his last 18, rasing his average nearly 40 points. There's nothing truly concrete at the moment to suggest he's been even decent, but underneath, it's brewing.
A .320 XWOBA is third best in his career, while the .398 XSlug% is second best in the last four seasons. Semien's sample size throughout his tenure gives us more to work with as an accomplished fantasy stud. Ranking as one of the eight unluckiest hitters in 2025 tells us a turnaround is imminent, especially as the Rangers offense heats up.
Adley Rutschman - Baltimore Orioles
I'm old enough to remember that 2025 Opening Day performance from the former Golden Spikes winner where he went 3-5 with two taters. I think it's fair to say considering the expectations coming into the MLB, Adley has been disappointing thus far. Batting just .259 with 56 homers since his debut, most people thought this was the next big thing. Not just an elite hitting catcher, but future superstar.
Believe it or not, he's striking out less and walking more. His .292 XBA paints a very different picture than his current .222 average, as does his .390 XWOBA (career high). The XSlug% of .508 shatters everything from the last three seasons too. So all of his expected numbers soar past his actual ones. The 39.5 hard hit % and 9.9 barrel % also rank as his best. Most advanced metrics are telling us Adley Rutschman is playing a lot better than the bottom line and that big breakout season could be nearing.
He's hitting the ball hard and demonstrating strong underlying metrics, but it hasn't resulted in much yet. It not only makes Adley one of the top 10 unluckiest players this season, but an awesome buy low candidate.
