The 2024 Nathan's Famous 4th of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest was the most competitive edition of the event we had seen since 2015, when Matt Stonie pulled off the upset to out-eat Joey Chestnut 62 hot dogs and buns (HDB) to 60. Last year, Patrick Bertoletti ate 58 HDB to edge out Geoffrey Esper (53), James Webb (52) and Nick Wehry (51.75) to win the coveted Mustard International Belt.
It was a great effort by all four men, who all hit the over on their totals at every sportsbook and pick'em site that offered odds. However, the 2024 event will always be remembered as the year that 16-time winner Joey Chestnut was ruled ineligible to compete because of his endorsement deal with plant-based food company Impossible Foods.
"Jaws" is back for the 2025 event, and he is once again the huge favorite (-2500). Since his upset loss in 2015, Chestnut has won by a margin of at least 10 HDB each year.
On the women's side of the event, Miki Sudo has been just as dominant. After last year's victory, she has won 10 of the past 11 years. The only year she did not claim the title was in 2021, when she did not participate due to her pregnancy. Michelle Lesco was the winner that year.
Who is Competing in the 2025 Hot Dog Eating Contest?
According to majorleagueeating.com, 15 men and 14 women will compete on Independence Day.
On the men's side, Chestnut and Bertoletti received automatic berths as past champions. Esper, Webb, Wehry, Derek Hendrickson, Radim Dvoracek and George Chiger punched their tickets by winning regional qualifiers. Five others received wild card bids, and Ricardo Corbucci received the lone international bye.
For the women, Sudo and Michelle Lesco are returning champions. Larell Marie Mele, Jocelyn Young, Domenica Dee, Kelly Lewis, Laura Beitel and Camille O'Brien earned entry by winning regional qualifiers, and six others earned wild card spots. Sudo's toughest competitor over the past two years, Mayoi Ebihara, is not on the roster to participate this year, leaving the returning champ as such a large favorite that most books aren't even offering odds to win.
Men's Participants
| Competitor | Personal Best | Notes |
| Joey Chestnut | 76 | 16-time champ and world record holder |
| Patrick Bertoletti | 58 | Set a personal best on the way to the win in 2024 with Chestnut sidelined |
| Geoffrey Esper | 53 | Finished 2nd place from 2021-2024 |
| James Webb | 52 | 3rd place finisher in 2022-2024 |
| Nick Wehry | 51.75 | The 2024 Cuban Sandwich Eating Champ has been a Top 4 finisher from 2020-2024 |
| Ricardo Corbucci | 43 | Finished 6th in 2024 |
| Gideon Oji | 38 | The #7 ranked eater ate 33 HDB at the DC Qualifier to secure his wild card spot. |
| Max Stanford | 37 | Ate 37 HDB at the Parma Qualifier to secure his wild card spot |
| Darrien Thomas | 34.5 | Ate 29.5 HDB at the Parma Qualifier to secure his wild card spot. |
| Derek Hendrickson | 33.5 | Ate 33.5 HDB at the West Coast Qualifier to win his spot. |
| George Chiger | 32.5 | Ate 26.5 HDB at the Hersheypark Qualifier to win his spot. |
| Radim Dvoracek | 29.5 | Ate 29.5 HDB at the Shawnee Qualifier to win his spot. |
| Adrian Morgan | 32 | Ate 32 HDB at the DC Qualifier to earn a wild card spot. |
| Cameron Meade | 25 | Ate 25 HDB at the Shawnee Qualifier to earn a wild card spot. |
| Jerome Burns | 23 | Ate 23 HDB at the Bristol Qualifier to earn a wild card spot. |
Women's Participants
| Competitor | Personal Best | Notes |
| Miki Sudo | 51 | 10-time Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest Champion and women's world record holder |
| Michelle Lesco | 32 | 2021 Champion when Sudo did not compete. |
| Domenica Dee | 23.5 | Ate 23.5 HDB at the West Coast Qualifier to win her spot. |
| Katie Prettyman | 16 | Ate 15 HDB at the West Coast Qualifier to secure her spot. |
| Larell Marie Mele | 21.25 | Ate 12 HDB at Bristol Qualifier to secure her spot. |
| Tandra Childress | 16 | Ate 16 HDB at the West Coast Qualifier to secure her spot. |
| Jocelyn Young | 11.25 | 2018 MLE Rookie of the Year. Ate 11.25 to win the Shawnee Qualifier. |
| Cherish Brown | 10 | Ate 8.5 HDB at the Parma Qualifier to earn a wild card spot. |
| Isabeau Prettyman | 11.5 | Ate 11.5 HDB at the West Coast Qualifier to secure a wild card. |
| Kelly Lewis | 10.25 | At 10.25 HDB to win the Parma Qualifier. |
| Camille O'Brien | 8.25 | Ate 8.25 HDB to win the Hersheypark Qualifier. |
| Elizabeth Salgado | 8.75 | Ate 8.25 HDB at the West Coast Qualifier to earn a wild card. |
| Madison Barone | 8.5 | Afte 8.5 HDB at the Bristol Qualifier to earn a wild card. |
| Laura Beitel | 8 | Ate 8 HDB to win the DC Qualifier |
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Strategy
Each of the top competitors have a strong history of performance that we can use to project their totals and their chances of winning. But what else should we be considering when betting on the event this year?
Get the Best Line
One key to any successful sports betting is finding any edge in value that you can. No matter what sport, including competitive eating, it's important to check multiple sportsbooks to find the best odds. RotoWire Sports Betting pages compare odds at a variety of major sportsbooks to help you find the best value.
For the women's contest, any result other than a Miki Sudo victory would be a historic upset. That being the case, most books aren't even offering odds to win. If you do want to take a shot at an upset, you can find odds for six individuals and "the field" at BetRivers. Sudo's over/under total is consistent across all books and pick'em sites, so there is no edge to exploit.
On the men's side, the biggest variance is between Patrick Bertoletti's odds and over/under. If you're expecting a down year for him, consider betting on him to finish under 55.5 (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook. If you expect another strong year, bet over 52.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Weather Matters
You'll want to keep an eye on the forecast as we get closer to the event. Typically, higher humidity has meant lower totals. In 2020, when the contest was held indoors in perfect conditions, Joey Chestnut and Miki Sudo shattered the world records.
Current forecasts are showing a high of 84 degrees and average humidity of 48%, which suggests we could have some average to above average totals.
Monitor the Women's Contest Before Betting on the Men
Over recent years, top women's performances have been a good gauge for the upcoming men's performances. In 2020, both Sudo and Chestnut set world records. In 2021, Michelle Lesco topped 30 HDB, a big number for her, and Chestnut beat his own record. In 2022 and 2023, Sudo's totals dropped from her record-setting 48.5 to 40 and 39.5, and Chestnut's numbers slipped too. Last year, after Sudo crushed her own record, I bet the overs on all of the top men's eaters, and they all cashed.
Best Bets for the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest
Patrick Bertoletti Over 52.5 Hot Dogs Eaten (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
As I mentioned earlier, FanDuel Sportsbook has Bertoletti's number set at 55.5, so we're getting great value at DK. You can also find him at 51.25 at PrizePicks, compared to 53.75 at Underdog. There is more risk in backing Bertoletti, who rose seemingly out of nowhere to win last year's contest, compared to picking someone like Esper or Webb, who have been consistent top 3 performers for several years. But Bertoletti changed his technique and managed to put down 58 franks last year, and he's sure to be motivated to top that number, knowing that Chestnut is back and hasn't finished fewer than 60 dogs since 2010.
2025 Men's Outright - Winner Without Joey Chestnut: Patrick Bertoletti (+135 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Again, I just can't pass up the value that we are getting at DK. The same bet at FanDuel comes in at -155, and at BetRivers it is -134. Last year, Bertoletti showed potential to take his game to the next level. Meanwhile, Geoffrey Esper and James Webb have more consistently hit the high-40s to low-50s range but haven't proven that they could elevate higher.
Looking for a bigger risk/reward option? Consider Webb (+350 at FanDuel) who recently broke his own record by eating 53 Texas sausages in 10 minutes. Those sausages are more than double the size of the hot dogs that he'll be eating on Independence Day, though that competition doesn't include buns.
Will Joey Chestnut's Record of 76 Hot Dogs Eaten be Broken? Yes (+250 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Although we didn't see Chestnut at Coney Island last year, we did see him eat 57 HDB in just five minutes while competing in a contest against soldiers at Fort Bliss on the 4th. He followed that with an 83 HDB performance in a Labor Day Netflix special versus long-time rival Kobayashi. And the list of accolades continues to grow, as he set a new world record in May at the Ultimate Bologna Showdown, finishing 15.75 lbs. of bologna in eight minutes. Jaws is at the top of his game. Nobody is going to beat him or Miki Sudo, so this may be the biggest long shot that we could actually win.
When is the Nathan's Famous 4th of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest, and How Can I Watch?
The women's competition coverage will begin at 10:45 am ET and will be live on ESPN3.
The men's competition coverage will begin at 12:00 pm ET and will be telecast live on ESPN2. It will re-air on ESPN at 5:00 pm ET and 9:00pm ET and on ESPN2 at 6:00 pm ET. Air times subject to change.
