SATURDAY
Buffalo (+1.5) at Denver, o/u 46.0 – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST
The AFC side of the playoffs this season could end up being something of a referendum on just how important it is to have a truly elite quarterback. Josh Allen quite literally carried the Bills to a win over the Jaguars in the wild-card round, and with Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson sitting at home, Drake Maye might be the only signal-caller left in the field who can match him in talent. Of course, the team around him needs to help a bit too. James Cook got stifled by the Jags, and the Broncos haven't been much easier to run against, but he might be overdue for a trip to the end zone — his last TD came in Week 16. Allen still lacks a true WR1, but Khalil Shakir is at least a reliable possession option, and Dalton Kincaid can create some mismatches at tight end. If Ed Oliver is able to make it back this weekend, it would also go a long way toward shoring up the defense's biggest weakness, as three of the team's last five opponents have run for more than 150 yards against the Bills.
The Broncos hopefully used their bye to figure out a way to spark their offense. In three games since starting center Luke Wattenberg was injured, they haven't topped 20 points, though they still won two of them thanks to the defense. Since a Week 12 bye, Denver's allowed 19.8 points per game with 19 sacks, and on the year Nik Bonitto and company led the NFL in sacks, pressures and QB knockdowns. No defense gave up fewer TDs in 2025 — the Seahawks tied the Broncos with 29 allowed, but they also coughed up a couple on special teams and offense — or had a better red-zone efficiency, and only Seattle had a better third-down efficiency. If DC Vance Joseph's crew can keep Allen from steamrolling them close to the goal line, it'll give Bo Nix a chance to get them through to the organization's first AFC championship since 2015, but that's far easier said than done.
Key Info
BUF injury report: WR Curtis Samuel (IR, elbow), K Tyler Bass (IR, hip), DT Ed Oliver (IR, bicep), DE Michael Hoecht (IR, Achilles), LB Terrel Bernard (questionable, calf), CB Maxwell Hairston (out, ankle), S Jordan Poyer (out, hamstring)
DEN injury report: RB J.K. Dobbins (IR, foot), C Luke Wattenberg (IR, shoulder), S Brandon Jones (out, pectoral)
Slight lean: WR Curtis Samuel (DEN 25th in DVOA vs. WR3)
Strong lean: RB RJ Harvey / Jaleel McLaughlin (BUF 31st in rushing DVOA, 27th in rushing yards allowed to RBs, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed to RBs)
Slight fade: WR Khalil Shakir (DEN fifth in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: WR Pat Bryant (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)
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NFL weather report: temperature in the mid-30s, 1-10 percent chance of snow
The Scoop: Cook churns out 90 yards and a touchdown. Allen throws for 200 yards and a TD to Dawson Knox while running in a score himself. Harvey produced 70 yards and a touchdown. Nix throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Courtland Sutton, but he leaves too much time on the clock after a field-goal drive in the fourth quarter. Bills 21-20
San Francisco (+7.5) at Seattle, o/u 45.0 – Saturday, 8 p.m. EST
What's that old tag line? "Takes a licking and keeps on ticking"? The 49ers had to pull Eric Kendricks off his couch to play linebacker a few weeks ago and lost George Kittle in the wild-card round, but that didn't stop them from going on the road and upsetting the defending champs in Philly. Christian McCaffrey keeps rolling right along, catching two TD passes against the Eagles while racking up triple-digit scrimmage yards for the third time in the last four games, and his steadiness has kept the offense afloat even though Brock Purdy has managed to get picked off in four consecutive games. DC Robert Saleh keeps MacGyvering a defense with paper clips and chewing gum, but the unit's failed to produce a turnover in four of its last five games, and the run defense has been gashed pretty regularly down the stretch. Fate is always on a team's side until destiny yanks the rug out from under it, and it's probably not a great sign that the only loss the Niners have had the last two months has come against the team they're facing Saturday, but San Francisco also knows that it's playing with house money at this point. The pressure's all on the other sideline.
The NFC's No. 1 seed didn't seem worried the last time these two teams met, though. With that first-round bye on the line, the Seahawks completely shut down the Niners, winning 13-3 in Week 18. It was the fourth time in its last six games that Mike Macdonald's defense had held an opponent to 10 points or fewer, and during the team's active seven-game winning streak Seattle's allowed just 14.1 points and 263.6 yards a contest. Zach Charbonnet's gotten into the end zone four times in the team's last three games, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba wrapped up his breakout campaign with the eighth-highest receiving yards total in history. Assuming Sam Darnold's minor oblique issue is, in fact, minor, the only thing working against the Seahawks is their lack of pedigree. Darnold's first playoff game last year didn't go so well, and while Macdonald was on Baltimore's staff, the Ravens went 3-6 in the postseason and never got past the conference championship (though I guess that track record is more the Giants' problem now than the Seahawks').
Key Info
SF injury report: WR Ricky Pearsall (questionable, knee), TE George Kittle (IR, Achilles), LG Ben Bartch (IR, foot), EDGE Nick Bosa (IR, knee), LB Fred Warner (IR, ankle), LB Tatum Bethune (IR, groin), LB Dee Winters (questionable, ankle), S Ji'Ayir Brown (out, hamstring)
SEA injury report: QB Sam Darnold (questionable, oblique)
Slight lean: TE Jake Tonges (SEA 27th in receiving yards per game allowed to TEs)
Strong lean: WR Cooper Kupp (SF 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong fade: RB Christian McCaffrey (SEA first in rushing DVOA, third in rushing yards allowed to RBs, t-first in rushing TDs allowed to RBs, sixth in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Strong fade: WR Jauan Jennings (SEA first in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: TE AJ Barner (SF fourth in DVOA vs. TE)
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NFL weather report: no weather concerns
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 7-6 SF, average score 26-21 SF, average margin of victory 10 points. The 49ers have won four straight meetings at Lumen Field, including a 17-13 victory in Week 1
The Scoop: McCaffrey puts together 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Purdy throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, finding Demarcus Robinson and Tonges, but he also gets picked off twice. Kenneth Walker bangs out 80 yards, while Zach Charbonnet hits paydirt again. Darnold throws for 220 yards and two scores, one each to Kupp and JSN, and he avoids turnovers. Seahawks 27-24
SUNDAY
Houston (+3) at New England, o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 3 p.m. EST
Three teams had a claim to being a truly elite defense in 2025, and all three are still alive in the playoffs. The Texans were the only ones to have to survive the wild-card round, though, and they likely sent Aaron Rodgers into retirement with an emphatic 30-6 victory that included two defensive TDs. They might need the extra scoring again this weekend, and C.J. Stroud's top target, Nico Collins, isn't expected to clear the concussion protocol in time. During Houston's 10-game winning streak, DeMeco Ryans' defense has given up an average of 18.0 points and 274.9 yards a game, so Stroud might not need too much extra help. The third-year QB has a 9:3 TD:INT in the last six weeks, with the most surprising of those nine being the one that went to Christian Kirk last week. The veteran slot receiver was basically an afterthought in the offense the entire second half, but he erupted for 8-144-1 against Pittsburgh, seamlessly stepping in for Collins. Kirk won't be a surprise this time around, but the Texans would probably take half of that production.
The Patriots had their worst offensive performance since Week 3 in the wild-card round, but fortunately at the same time they put together their best defensive performance of the year, holding the Chargers to just a field goal and sacking poor Justin Herbert six times. Drake Maye did commit multiple turnovers for only the fourth time this season and failed to complete 60 percent of his passes for the first time since Week 10, but the MVP voting is already done so he should be fine. He did face the Texans in his first career start last year, tossing three TDs but committing three turnovers in a 41-21 loss, but both the QB and the Houston defense are in very different places now. (Fun fact: Stefon Diggs caught his last TD as a Texan in that game.) Mike Vrabel is favoring Rhamondre Stevenson again over TreVeyon Henderson, with the senior RB scoring six TDs in the last four games while piling up 461 scrimmage yards, but the pattern for this offense as a whole has been that there is no pattern beyond Maye's involvement, so bank on that at your peril.
Key Info
HOU injury report: RB Joe Mixon (NFI, foot), WR Nico Collins (out, concussion), WR Tank Dell (PUP, knee), RT Trent Brown (questionable, ankle)
NE injury report: EDGE Harold Landry (questionable, knee), CB Christian Gonzalez (questionable, concussion)
Strong lean: WR Christian Kirk (NE 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: WR Kayshon Boutte (HOU 25th in receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s)
Slight fade: WR Jayden Higgins (NE second in receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s)
Strong fade: RB TreVeyon Henderson / Rhamondre Stevenson (HOU second in rushing DVOA, fourth in rushing yards allowed to RBs, third in passing DVOA vs. RB)
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NFL weather report: temperature in the mid-30s, 20-30 percent chance of snow
The Scoop: Woody Marks pops for 100 combined yards and a score. Stroud throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Dalton Schultz. Stevenson leads the NE backfield with 80 yards and a TD. Maye throws for under 200 yards and a score to Diggs while running in the winning touchdown himself. Patriots 21-17
L.A. Rams at Chicago (+3.5), o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST
In what is perhaps the most improbable factoid I've ever seen, Sean McVay will roll into his 15th career playoff game never having faced a time twice. Under his watch, the only NFC teams the Rams haven't met yet in the postseason are the Giants and Commanders. If the Rams don't advance here, expect both of them to get playoff berths in 2026, just so McVay can complete his list. Or he might just say to heck with it and go all the way to the Super Bowl, which would be fun too. Last weekend's win over the Panthers required a last-minute TD from Colby Parkinson, but that was mainly because the defense couldn't contain Bryce Young. Matthew Stafford led the team to 30-plus points for the fifth time in the last six games, a stretch in which the Rams averaged 36.3 points and 466.5 yards while the veteran QB posted a 17:5 TD:INT. For all the focus that goes toward Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, it's the team's stacked TE room that's been doing serious damage. Parkinson, Tyler Higbee and Terrance Ferguson combined for nine of those 17 touchdowns while playing only 12 games between them, which is some Brock Bowers-Trey McBride level production. The NFL is a copycat league, and while the trend the last few years has seen a resurgence from bell cow RBs, it's stud TEs creating mismatches that might be the next big thing through the rest of the decade.
The Bears probably looked at the Rams' little comeback last weekend and laughed, while riffing on Bane's speech but talking about how those rich playboys from L.A. merely adopted the fourth-quarter deficit. Caleb Williams led his team back from a 21-6 deficit at the start of the fourth quarter, after he put together six other fourth-quarter comebacks during the regular season — tied for the fifth-highest total in history. The list of QB with six or more in a season includes Hall of Famers like John Elway and Payton Manning (twice!) ... and Stafford, who had a record eight 4Q comebacks with the Lions in 2016 as they went 9-7. (Which, like, how is that even possible?) At some point Ben Johnson's going to have to figure out how to get his young gunslinger to flip that switch a little earlier in the game, but Williams has plenty of time to work things out. The Chicago defense sagged late in the season and has allowed more than 400 yards in three consecutive games, but so long as Williams gets the ball last, there's nothing to worry about.
Key Info
LAR injury report: RT Rob Havenstein (IR, ankle), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (IR, shoulder)
CHI injury report: WR Rome Odunze (questionable, foot), LT Ozzy Trapilo (IR, knee), LB T.J. Edwards (IR, lower log)
Slight lean: WR Xavier Smith (CHI 27th in DVOA vs. WR3)
Slight lean: WR DJ Moore (LAR 30th in receiving yards per game allowed to WR1s)
Slight fade: WR Puka Nacua (CHI ninth in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: TE Colston Loveland (LAR third in DVOA vs. TE)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: temperature in the low 20s, 10-15 mph wind, 15-25 percent chance of snow
The Scoop: Kyren Williams leads the LAR backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown. Stafford throws for 270 yards and two scores, one each to Nacua and Ferguson. D'Andre Swift manages 60 yards. Williams throws for less than 200 yards and two TDs, hitting Moore and Luther Burden, but he does not get the ball last. Rams 27-20
Last week's record: 5-1, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 o/u
2025 regular-season record: 173-98-1 (.638), 143-121-8 ATS (.542), 141-130-1 o/u (.520)
