I use several RotoWire tools to analyze matchups, starting with Box Score Breakdown, which gives me a clear view of snaps, routes and other usage stats from the previous week. NFL defense vs. position stats identify exploitable matchups, while NFL advanced stats provide me with emerging trends. And I monitor the NFL injury report and NFL player news to see how roles and NFL depth charts may shift for the current week.
Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.
Start/Upgrade 👍
Quarterbacks 👍
Jacoby Brissett (at CIN) — 45% started
Start Over — Baker Mayfield (at MIA), Bo Nix (at KC), Justin Herbert (vs. HOU)
The Arizona fantasy scam should get back on track this week, facing a barely-there Bengals defense in a game with one of the highest over/unders of the season (53.5). Cincinnati's offense may not be quite as pass-heavy as Arizona's right now, but there's still ample potential for this game to turn into a shootout. Brissett, Michael Carter, Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison are all startable this week.
- Other Good Matchups: Joe Burrow (vs. ARZ), Dak Prescott (at WAS), Trevor Lawrence (at IND), Tyler Shough (at TEN), Sam Darnold (at CAR), Marcus Mariota or Josh Johnson (vs. DAL)
Running Backs 👍
Rhamondre Stevenson (at NYJ) — 15% started
Start Over — Kenneth Walker (at CAR), Omarion Hampton (vs. HOU), Jaylen Warren (at CLE)
Stevenson's ranking obviously depends on TreVeyon Henderson's health. If Henderson is out, Stevenson becomes a must-start for all but the strongest of fantasy teams, lined up as a potential three-down workhorse in a game where the Patriots are favored by 12.5 points. If Henderson plays, which isn't especially likely, Stevenson would still be a candidate for double-digit carries and FLEX status for fantasy. (The names listed above in 'start over' are assuming Henderson won't play.)
Chris Rodriguez (vs. DAL) — 6% started
Start Over — Isiah Pacheco (vs. DEN), Zach Charbonnet (at CAR), Tyjae Spears (vs. NO)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt's disappearance during the second half of last week's game probably won't carry over to this week, but it does seem Rodriguez is locked in as the starter and lead runner. There's workload/role risk still, to be sure, but there's also a real ceiling thanks to the matchup with a Cancun-gazing Dallas defense. Rodriguez has four straight games with double-digit carries, and he's scored TDs in five of his past eight.
- Other Good Matchups: Chase Brown & Samaje Perine (vs. ARZ), RJ Harvey (at KC), Travis Etienne (at IND), Tyrone Tracy (at LV), Michael Carter (at CIN), Audric Estime (at TEN)
Wide Receivers 👍
- Stefon Diggs (at NYJ) — 59% started
Start Over — Tetairoa McMillan (vs. SEA), Courtland Sutton (vs. KC), Jaylen Waddle (vs. TB)
Diggs broke out of a three-game slump Sunday night, and he may now be asked to handle larger snap/route shares after both Kayshon Boutte (concussion) and DeMario Douglas (hamstring) suffered injuries in the win over Baltimore. There's still blowout risk here, but it comes with a higher-than-usual chance of Diggs getting off to a fast start and making a run at 1,000 yards for the season (he currently has 869 receiving yards).
Jakobi Meyers (at IND) — 32% started
Start Over — Terry McLaurin (vs. DAL), Brian Thomas (at IND), Justin Jefferson (vs. DET)
We can't project a huge target share for any one Jaguar right now, but there's no question Meyers has been the team's most consistent pass catcher, recording six straight games with six or more targets and four or more receptions. While unlikely to match the 10 targets he saw against the Colts three weeks ago when Brian Thomas was inactive, Meyers should get at least a handful of looks while improving on his efficiency (4-39-1) from the previous Colts-Jags matchup. Indy's defense hasn't played well recently and won't be getting top corner Charvarius Ward (concussion) back in the lineup this season, leaving Meyers and Co. in favorable circumstances. It's also nice to be playing in a dome, especially at this time of year when other teams may deal with bad weather.
- Other Good Matchups: CeeDee Lamb & George Pickens (at WAS); Brian Thomas & Parker Washington (at IND), Deebo Samuel (vs. DAL), Troy Franklin (at KC), Tre Tucker (vs. NYJ)
Tight Ends 👍
Harold Fannin (vs. PIT) — 47% started
Start Over — Dallas Goedert (at BUF), Tyler Warren (vs. JAX), Jake Ferguson (at WAS)
Coming off four straight games with double-digit PPR points, Fannin should stay busy against a Pittsburgh defense that's seen the fifth-most TE targets (8.7) while allowing the third-most PPR points (17.2) to the position. Back in Week 6, during the first matchup between these teams, Fannin put up 7-81-0 on 10 targets — numbers that stood as his personal bests until the Week 14 explosion against Tennessee.
- Other Good Matchups: Trey McBride & Elijah Higgins (at CIN), Juwan Johnson (at TEN), Brenton Strange (at IND), Theo Johnson (at LV)
Sit/Downgrade 👎
Quarterbacks 👎
Jared Goff (at MIN) — 59% started
Start Instead — Brock Purdy (vs. CHI), Jacoby Brissett (at CIN), Trevor Lawrence (at IND)
Detroit's struggles have worked out well for Goff's fantasy managers, with the QB throwing for 300.6 yards per game on 38.0 attempts in eight contests since a Week 8 bye. It may seem like Goff offers an excellent floor, but there's actually risk of the bottom falling out this week with Minnesota potentially starting undrafted rookie QB Max Brosmer (who threw four INTs when he made a start at Seattle in November). If the Vikings do keep things close, it'll almost certainly mean a big day for Brian Flores' defense.
- Other Tough Matchups: Jalen Hurts (at BUF), Justin Herbert (vs. HOU), C.J. Stroud (at LAC), Bryce Young (vs. SEA), Aaron Rodgers (at CLE)
Running Backs 👎
Breece Hall (vs. NE) — 80% started
Start Instead — Tony Pollard (vs. NO), Jaylen Warren (at CLE), Tyrone Tracy (at LV), Rico Dowdle (vs. SEA)
Hall is a borderline option even in favorable matchups at this point, dealing with horrific QB play and now up to five straight games below 4.0 YPC. He's caught more than two passes in just one of the past 10 games, and the Jets were quicker to turn to Isaiah Davis the past couple weeks when things started to get out of hand. Without rushing efficiency or garbage-time receptions, Hall simply doesn't offer much besides potential to break the occasional long run. The Patriots had trouble with Derrick Henry this past Sunday, but they've generally shut down RBs all season long.
Isiah Pacheco (vs. DEN) — 19% started
Start Instead — Michael Carter (at CIN), Chris Rodriguez (vs. DAL), Zach Charbonnet (at CAR)
Pacheco's increased role last week may lead to a degree of renewed fantasy interest, but there's still huge risk for a dud even if Kareem Hunt isn't playing much. For starters, Denver's defense is good and Pacheco isn't. Then there's the matter of Kansas City's numerous injuries on the offensive line and under center. It's simply a bad spot for any member of the Chiefs offense, even if guys like Pacheco and JuJu Smith-Schuster suddenly project for a larger portion of the pie.
- Other Tough Matchups: Jonathan Taylor (vs. JAX), Derrick Henry (at GB), Omarion Hampton (vs. HOU), Rico Dowdle & Chuba Hubbard (vs. SEA), Tyler Allgeier (vs. LAR)
Wide Receivers 👎
Ladd McConkey (vs. HOU) — 77% started
Start Instead — Stefon Diggs (at NYJ), Jauan Jennings (vs. CHI), Michael Wilson (at CIN)
McConkey has a lot of things going for him, but target volume hasn't been one of them apart from a brief spike in October. He's since recorded seven straight games with six or fewer targets, finishing with single-digit PPR points in seven of those. The Chargers have been spreading the ball around, and they don't have enough confidence in their offensive line to deploy the pass-heavy gameplans we saw at times during the first half of the season. Add in the nightmare matchup this week and it's easy to see how McConkey might disappoint, not to mention his lesser teammates (Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston).
- Other Tough Matchups: A.J. Brown & DeVonta Smith (at BUF), Jameson Williams (at BUF), Nico Collins & Jayden Higgins (at LAC), Quentin Johnston (vs. HOU), Xavier Worthy & Hollywood Brown (vs. DEN), Tetairoa McMillan & Jalen Coker (vs. SEA)
Tight Ends 👎
- Travis Kelce (vs. DEN) — 72% started
Start Instead — Juwan Johnson (at TEN), Jake Ferguson (at WAS), Dalton Schultz (at LAC)
I thought Kelce would get by fine with Gardner Minshew at quarterback, especially when the Chiefs were dealing with key injuries at wide receiver. Unfortunately, their offensive line has also fallen apart, and now they'll have Chris Oladokun under center for a matchup with one of the AFC's better defenses. The Chiefs have an implied total of 12 points, second-lowest of any team this season.
- Other Tough Matchups: Dallas Goedert (at BUF), Mark Andrews (at GB), Oronde Gadsden (vs. HOU)
Streaming Picks
For Shallow Leagues (Under 60 Percent Rostered)
QB Sam Darnold (at CAR)
RB Michael Carter (at CIN)
RB Chris Rodriguez (vs. DAL)
RB Emanuel Wilson (vs. BAL)
RB Dylan Sampson (vs. PIT) - hamstring
WR Troy Franklin (at KC)
WR Alec Pierce (vs. JAX)
WR Jayden Reed (vs. BAL)
WR Josh Downs (vs. JAX)
WR Tre Tucker (vs. NYG)
TE Colston Loveland (at SF)
TE Brenton Strange (at IND)
TE Theo Johnson (at LV)
K Evan McPherson (vs. ARZ)
D/ST Patriots (at NYJ)
D/ST Lions (at MIN)
D/ST Buccaneers (at MIA)
D/ST Packers (vs. BAL)
For Medium-depth Leagues (Under 35 Percent Rostered)
QB Tyler Shough (at TEN)
RB Raheim Sanders (vs. PIT)
RB Jawhar Jordan (at LAC)
RB Tyjae Spears (vs. NO)
RB Audric Estime (at TEN)
WR Parker Washington (at IND)
WR Mack Hollins (at NYJ)
WR Chimere Dike (vs. NO)
WR Jalen Coker (vs. SEA)
TE Colby Parkinson (at ATL)
TE AJ Barner (at CAR)
K Andy Borregales (at NYJ)
K Will Reichard (vs. DET)
D/ST Titans (vs. NO)
For Deep Leagues (Under 15 Percent Rostered)
QB Cam Ward (vs. NO)
QB Philip Rivers (vs. JAX)
RB Samaje Perine (vs. ARZ)
RB Jeremy McNichols (vs. DAL)
RB Malik Davis (at WAS)
WR John Metchie (vs. NE)
WR Olamide Zaccheaus (at SF)
TE Mike Gesicki (vs. ARZ)
TE Luke Musgrave (vs. BAL)
K Charlie Smyth (at TEN)
D/ST Raiders (vs. NYG)
D/ST Bengals (vs. ARZ)
